Behind oil, the US had a much more mundane reason for attacking Iran: pistachios

Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, unleashing a war that has lasted more than a month and now hangs on a fragile truce, the world has been attentive to the ups and downs in the price of oil and the traffic of goods such as urea either helium. Logical Your flow has been greatly damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sectors as important as transportation, agriculture or the technology industry depend on them.

There is, however, another commodity that has grabbed much fewer headlines and is equally affected (perhaps even more so) by the war: the pistachio.

green gold. No market remains immune to the passage of time, but few have changed as much over the last half century as that of pistachio. If we go back to the 60s, even the 70s, talking about the world pistachio market was talk basically about Iran. The country dominated global trade, placing itself far above from rivals such as the United States or Türkiye.

Today the photo is different.

Has it changed that much? It comes with looking at the graph above. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), during the 2025/2026 season the US will strengthen its global leadership with 712,700 tons metric, 65% of total production. Iran takes 18% of the pie, followed not so far by Türkiye (11%). These are not current figures, but the new reality.

Although the pistachio industry is a business marked by cyclical patterns of its production, its global photo has hardly changed in the last decade: the USA dominates, followed by Iran and Türkiye, which have sometimes reached exchange the second and third position. At the distancefollowed by Syria and the EU, Spain included.

It’s the market… and politics. That Iran has lost its global leadership in favor of the United States is hardly a coincidence. Nor is it explained only by reasons of production or pure economics. As I remembered recently analyst Justin Fox in Bloomberg, in reality the US authorities did not begin to bet on pistachio production in California until the middle of the last century.

The plantations as such did not arrive until the late 1960s and the first commercial harvest with a certain scope was harvested in 1976. However, the future of the world pistachio market has been influenced by both the geostrategic decisions made in Washington and the work of pistachio farmers in the San Joaquin Valleyin the state of California.

Reviewing history. At the end of the 70s, after the overthrow of the Shah and the takeover of the embassy American in Iran, Washington imposed a trade embargo on the country that cleared the way for Californian farmers eager to dominate the national market. The trade penalty was lifted in 1981, but just a few years later the US gave another boost to its industry by applying a tariff of 241% to raw Iranian pistachios in shell.

Since then the scenario has become more complicated, but its result is evident: California has become a heavyweight in global production. And with it the US, which surpassed Iran for the first time in the 2004 campaign and has been more than doubling its annual harvest since 2020.

“What’s behind that takeoff?” That’s the question Justin Fox asks himself in your analysisin which he slips several ideas: this boom is partly explained by changes in water policies that led American farmers to bet on almonds and pistachios, the advantages of their production during droughts and the boost of Stewart and Lynda Resnickowners of Wonderful Company, a firm that brings together between 15 and 20% of California pistachios and found the key to popularizing the product. And for proof, a button: since the middle of the last decade, per capita consumption in the country has tripled.

Beyond the geostrategic value of Iran, its weight in the oil industry or the turbulent relationship with Israel, there are those who have seen the pistachio market as one of the factors that have conditioned the relationship between Washington and Tehran over recent decades. “Hostile relations with Iran seem to have benefited California producers,” says Fox, who recalls that there is even a documentary, ‘Pistachio Wars’which “even hints that pistachio interests are partly responsible for that hostility.”

Is it that important? It is estimated that the ‘vede gold’ was the 17th export in terms of value of the US agricultural industry during fiscal year 2025. And it is not unreasonable to think that this position will improve. Both for the growing popularity of pistachio, driven in recent years by the fever of ‘Dubai chocolate’as well as the commitment of US farmers.

The New York Times esteem that pistachio orchards have exploded in surface area in the last quarter of a century: from around 100,000 acres in California in 2001, they have grown to more than 600,000.

And the war came. At this point the question is obvious… How is the war in Iran affecting the world pistachio market? There are those who believe that the American industry will be one of the best stops. “This war will limit what Iran can make and export to customers in Europe and China,” explains to TNYT Adam Orandi, responsible for a pistachio tree extension in San Joaquín.

It is not only about a possible loss of strength of the Islamic Republic in the market, but about the behavior of prices. Orandi is not the only one who has pointed in that direction. In recent weeks other voices have speculated about the benefits that California companies could obtain, especially considering the good estimates of harvest that they handle in the US.

Has the war affected that much? Yes. A few weeks ago Times of India slid and to some of the threats that the war represents for the Iranian pistachio trade: logistical paralysis (conditioned by disturbances in maritime routes), the increase in premiums charged by insurance companies, power and irrigation outages caused by problems with infrastructure and sanctions that affect the use of the SWIFT system.

Some analysts believe that not only the US benefits from the current scenario. There are those who has been set already in the other major competitor of the market, Türkiye, which according to USDA monopolizes 11% of production, or even look at the Iberian peninsula.

“The instability comes at a time when Spanish pistachio production is beginning to expand significantly, transforming Spain into much more than a temporary substitute,” comment Viridi Horizons, which even speaks of “a strategic opportunity” for the Spanish pistachio.

Neither white nor black. The reality is much more complex. Viridi remember that the Strait of Hormuz is a key export route for Iranian pistachios and that India depends on Tehran for almost 70% of its consumption of the fruit, but the hangover from war has not only been felt in the Islamic Republic.

Associated Press (AP) spoke recently with a California producer who acknowledged that the Hormuz blockade has affected their ability to supply their customers. What’s more, he even claimed to have merchandise blocked on ships worth five million dollars, fruits that should reach Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but remained stranded after the outbreak of the war.

He is not the only one to recognize that the conflict has also had negative repercussions for the US sector. In another chronicle from the end of March Los Angeles Times warned that it is not only affecting California’s agricultural exports, it has also increased shipping costs, blocked some strategic markets and made inputs that are difficult to dispense with, such as fertilizers or fuel, more expensive. Handicaps that are added to the effects that the 2025 trade war has already had on American farmers.

A “tense” market. The quotation marks are once again from Viridi, who recognizes, by way of conclusion, that if the war has done anything it is “tension” the pistachio market. There remain unknowns on the horizon, and not only because of doubts about the future of the war or the result of the truce reached by the US and Iran. To what extent will merchandise shipments be affected? How will they affect prices? Has Iran’s production capacity been damaged?

The latter is not a whimsical question. There are those who assures that the bombings on Iran have damaged warehouses dedicated to this merchandise located near the Rafsanjan airport, in Kerman, the heart of the Iranian sector.

Images | Kischmisch (Unsplash), Wikipedia, USDA and Syed F Hashemi (Umsplash)

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