If they had told us that a fleet of trucks disguised as mobile houses was going to enter Russia in a covert operation of a year and a half, and that after that time a swarm of more than 100 drones would attack with surgical precision several air bases of Moscow, we would not have believed it. However, and beyond A mission That seems more typical of a Hollywood film, the operation has meant a hole for Russia that can hardly be replaced in the short term. A letter clue In negotiations.
Unprecedented. It We count yesterday. On June 1, 2025, Ukraine carried out the greatest operation with war drones to date, launching 117 drones against at least four Russian air bases in a coordinated attack that had as its direct objective the backbone of Russian strategic aviation: its long -range bombers.
Until then, the Ukrainian attacks on these platforms had been sporadic and limited to a single location, but this blow, simultaneously executed against Belaya, Olenya, Dyagilevo and Ivanovo, says A radical change in the Ukrainian capacity to penetrate deeply in Russian airspace and degrade key strategic assets.
Figures While there is still uncertainty about the exact number of destroyed or damaged aircraft, Ukraine claims to have impacted At least 41 aircraftwith 13 of them completely destroyed, including bombers Tu-22m3, TU-95msan early alert plane A-50 and possibly a TU-160 Blackjackthe most sophisticated bomber in Russia.
An irreplaceable fleet. The importance of these bombers is not only in their conventional offensive capacity, but Its nuclear role within the Russian strategic triad. If the Ukraine figures are confirmed, the damages would be equivalent to a loss of the 10% of the force TU-95ms operational, for example, an alarming percentage considering that these aircraft have no immediate replacement. The TU-95ms, designed in the fifties and produced until the early nineties, It has been modernizingbut its value is more strategic than monetary.
In the case of TU-22m3, another relic of the Cold War, its current use has been marked by devastating bombings with KH-22 missiles converted, causing Large number of deaths civilians in Ukraine. The loss of several of these airplanes greatly complicates their replacement. For its part, the TU-160the only one of these models still in production, represents a minimal fraction of the fleet and each unit costs more than 500 million dollars. Plus: Build new It has been for years and requires an industrial infrastructure diminished by sanctions.
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Blow to nuclear deterrence. The Ukrainian attack, by Its scope and precisionnot only neutralizes short -term attack capacity, but also weakens Russia’s credibility as nuclear power. These bombers constitute the most flexible part of their Dysuasoria triadnot only for its role in conventional conflicts, but for its ability to launch nuclear missiles from remote distances.
In addition, they also fulfill symbolic functions, patrolling the airspace of Europe, Asia and even approaching Alaska’s environment As a sample of force. The loss of aircraft in this sector undermines that projection. Moscow has repeatedly argued that attacks on its strategic abilities represent a red line, but so far it has not responded proportionally To attacks that have been growing in scope and intensity. This operation, however, marks An climb difficult to ignore.
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Structural vulnerability. The attack has also clearly exposed the persistent vulnerability of the Russian aviation on land. Although defensive measures implemented from previous attacks (such as aircraft dispersion, anti -explosive wallsreinforced shelters, models painted on tracks and wings tires To confuse drone guidance systems), the infrastructure has not achieved Protect airplanes whose large size even prevents them from protecting them completely.
In fact, they were used junk aircraft Like lures, but none of that avoided the damage. The anti -aircraft defenses installed in the bases have been insufficient once again. The dispersion of bombers to remote places such as Olenya or Belaya intended to complicate Ukrainian attacks, but failed to avoid a huge scale and precision.
Doctrinal change and a threat. Also We count widely yesterday. The Spiderweb Operation Not only demonstrated the technical capacity of Ukraine to infiltrate enemy territory with small and cheap drones, but also an emerging war doctrine focused on saturate and erode assets clue. This tactic not only damages expensive equipment with economic means, but it forces Russia to deploy even more Resources in static defensereduces its operational freedom and generates constant uncertainty.
While Moscow launches nightly hundreds of drones against Ukraine, kyiv showed that he can strike back at unthinkable distances only one year ago. And it also does it with tools that evolve: the use of drones with improved countermeasures is expected, artificial intelligence To avoid The Jamming and the elimination of the human pilot in real time, which will further difficult to detect and neutralization.
Putin and invulnerability. Bloomberg had Another leg that must be analyzed after the attack. Beyond the exact count of destroyed airplanes, the mission has shaken the Kremlin environment. The internal reaction itself has been alarm, anger and recognition of a scenario so far unthinkable: that nuclear assets can be legitimate and effective white from a country that No nuclear armament.
Although the number of bombers needed to attack Ukraine is limited and Moscow could maintain its rhythm of envestidas, the underlying message seems clear: there is no territory Absolutely safe. This perception directly affects the Force projection that Putin has cultivated for two decades and erodes his rhetoric of strategic supremacy.
The nuclear triad, touched. We said it at the beginning. Long -range aviation is the smallest component (and now, more damaged) Russian nuclear triadalso composed of intercontinental and strategic submarine ballistic missiles. Although bombers are frequently used in conventional missions, they are also part of the global deterrent gear. Its symbolic character as nuclear projection instruments add a layer of gravity to the attack.
Even if its operating role within the nuclear arsenal is secondary to missiles or submarines, the perception that they can be neutralized from the interior of Russia represents that doctrinal change We commented. Kyiv is no longer limited to attacking logistics infrastructure or ammunition deposits: now he points to the heart of the Russian strategic capacity.
Repair damage. According to Bloombergthe damage to these bombers also raises a structural challenge for Russia, whose ability to replace or replace these aircraft is seriously compromised. A Russian audit filtered in 2022 He already warned that a good part of these planes depended on Western components That, after the sanctions, are impossible to replace.
The national production of spare parts has failed to advance, and Not even China He has supplied this gap effectively. Thus, each lost or damaged aircraft represents not only a tactical blow, but a lasting weakening of a system that Moscow cannot easily regenerate.
West takes note. From the perspective of European and NATO allies, the operation has direct implications on Continental security. Russian long -range bombers represent a constant threat, even for countries far from the conflict, for their ability to launch cruise missiles at a great distance.
By neutralizing part of this fleet, Ukraine not only improves its defense, but also contributes to Reduce pressure Military on the West, who has struggled to balance its air defense capacity against Russian war production machinery. The weakness exposed by Russian aerial defenders is, as they have Experts indicated Western, a tactical opportunity to balance the strategic game.
Uncertain perspectives. For the New York Times analystsin the short term, Russia could be forced to adopt an even more dispersed strategy, sacrificing efficiency for security, which would seriously limit its offensive capacity. In the long term, they agree that they may opt for Build massive shelters capable of housing heavy bombers, although that will require immense time and resources.
Industrial and economic limitations, aggravated by sanctions and the cost of prolonged war, make Moscow unlikely Reconstitute quickly Its strategic fleet. Even the existing one, although not destroyed, could be out of operation for long periods for partial damage, logistics problems or simple caution. Seen thus, the Russian strategic aviation, pillar of the military and deterrence of the Kremlin, has remained wound structurally.
For the first time since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine showed that tap The heart of Russian air power, not as a symbolic act, but as A systematic threatreplicable and devastating.
Image | Russian Ministry of Defense, VargaaA thousand.ru
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