Last Wednesday, April 8, the announcement of a temporary ceasefire two weeks between the United States and Iran, conditional on the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered an immediate reaction in energy markets. The barrel of Brent oil accumulated a weekly drop of 13.77%the highest in nine months, placing the price more than 15 dollars below the level at which it was trading just a week before, when it was still above 110 dollars. That shock has arrived, with a dropper of course, to Spanish gas stations.
What you see at the pump right now. On Friday, April 10, the average price of diesel in Spain was around 1.87 euros per liter, with a drop of 1.67% in the next 24 hours compared to the previous day. A still timid drop if one takes into account that diesel was quoted at an average of 1,881 euros per liter during the week of March 27, the highest price since it came into force. the fuel tax reduction approved by the Government. And filling a 55-liter tank of diesel cost about 103 euros, according to data of that same period.
Why oil has fallen. The key is in the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through it, and its blockade since the beginning of the war had skyrocketed crude oil prices to almost $146 per barrel at the worst times. When talks between the US and Iran were announced for the start of a truce, the price plummeted from $110 to $94 in a matter of hours.
Why does it take so long to be noticed at the gas station? Here comes into play what we have been explaining these days in our coverage: the rocket and feather effect. When oil rises, the price of fuel at the pump reacts almost immediately; when it goes down, the correction arrives weeks late. Distribution companies quickly transfer crude oil increases because they anticipate that replenishing fuel will cost them more. But when the price drops, they claim to have stock previously purchased at higher prices, thus delaying the drop.
According to Bloomberg Linein Spain the movements in the price of gasoline have been minimal, even upward at times, with variations of less than 1% despite the sharp decline in crude oil.
How long do you have to wait? The deadlines vary depending on the source, but there is consensus that the drop will not be immediate. Just like they count From Autopista, the most favorable purchase prices take between 14 and 28 days to reach gas stations significantly, and after four weeks. But of course, all this in case nothing else happens that affects the price, something that we unfortunately do not know about.
The tax reduction what we have in Spain. The Government approved fiscal relief measures that have acted as an extra cushion. The first vice president and Minister of Economy, Carlos Body, wait that the fall in oil prices “will also end up resulting in a drop in fuel prices”, after the reactivation of maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the European Commission has warned Spain that the reduction in VAT on fuel from 21% to 10% has failed to comply with Community regulations, which adds uncertainty as to whether this aid can be maintained.
What can happen from now on. The most favorable scenario, and also the most fragile, depends entirely on the ceasefire holding. Matt Smith, of business analytics firm Kpler, warns that “there will be a lot of reluctance and caution when passing through the strait because it seems that Iran will still be patrolling it,” which will delay the normalization of maritime traffic and, with it, the sustained drop in crude oil.
As if that were not enough, oil production in the region fell more in March than in the worst times of the pandemic, and recovering that productive capacity will take time. The American EIA (Energy Information Administration) foresees that the price of crude oil could begin to moderate in the second half of 2026, as long as the international situation stabilizes. But there is no guarantee.
What we must not lose sight of. Although the current trend points to a downward correction, current prices are still much higher than before the conflict. The price of fuel in Spain had been relatively stable at the beginning of 2026, with gasoline at around 1.45-1.50 euros per liter, before the escalation of the war changed everything abruptly in March. Returning to those levels is not something that will happen overnight, so for now it seems that we will have to stay alert to learn more information about the situation.
Cover image | Roberto Rodríguez and engin akyurt
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