2026 looked good for US tourism. with the sector recovering of the pandemic on an international scale, the US started the year with three ‘hooks’ capable of attracting thousands of visitors: the world cup of FIFA, the centenary of Route 66 and the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. Three milestones that under normal conditions would make agencies, airlines and hotels rub their hands. Instead of that voices sound that warn that curves are coming.
There are those who warn that the American industry risks losing a fortune and it is even done a question: Are there millions of tourists missing in the country?
What has happened? That in a year in which (theoretically) the United States has everything in its favor to reinforce its tourism, in the country voices arise that speak of the complete opposite: loss of tourists foreigners and dark clouds on the horizon that threaten to cost the sector billions and billions of dollars.
a few days ago The New York Times public an analysis in which he already slipped several worrying data: in January the flow of foreign travelers fell 4.8%a percentage that is largely explained by the decline in Canadian tourism, 28% lower to that of 2024. It is not only that the data is bad, it is that it maintains the negative trend of 2025, the year in which the US suffered a 6% decline in foreign visitors while the industry grew globally.
How does 2026 look? That same question Oxford Economics did it not long ago, especially because according to its records in 2025, international overnight stays were reduced by 5.7% in the US. His answer is interesting: the observatory estimates that in 2026 the influx of foreigners will increase by 3.9%, although this growth is accompanied by some fine print.
Getting started Oxford Economics remember that the celebration of the FIA World Cup, which the US hosts jointly with Mexico and Canada, should be enough to boost the arrival of tourists. However, the 3.9% forecast for the US is much lower than the increase in demand expected worldwide, which is around 8%. Its analysts already warn that the US risks “underperforming other international markets again this year.”
Is there more data? Yeah. TNYT appointment some analyzes and sources that point to stagnation or even a drop in demand from Europe. The most revealing is a study by Cirium that reflects a year-on-year drop of 14.2% in July reservations made from the old continent. The data must be handled with caution in any case. First because 2026 has just begun. Second, because the analysis is based on external sources and travel agendas, which does not include reservations processed directly with airlines.
Can the panorama change? Yes. A month ago World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) launched a resounding statement in which he warned of the impact they would have the new demands posed by Washington for travelers who want to use the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA), including a in depth review of the applicant’s history on social networks. If the measure is finally applied, the organization warns, the sector could suffer a drop in demand with serious consequences.
“34% of respondents say they are less likely to visit the US in the next two or three years if the changes are implemented. Only 12% say they would be more likely, which will translate into a significant net decrease in travel intentions,” explains. WTTC estimates point to a loss of 4.7 million international arrivals and $15.7 billion in visitor spending. In terms of employment, some 157,000 positions would be damaged.
Are there more factors at play? Yes. The changes to the ESTA would explain the losses calculated by the WTTC for the future, but they do not the ‘prick’ that foreign tourism in the US already suffered in 2025, a year in which the sector grew in most destinations. In fact, the UN itself has highlighted the “weak results” of the US, especially during the third and fourth quarters.
What is the reason for this trend? For the WTTC the answer seems clear: in 2025, with Trump in the White House, I already warned that “while other countries welcome (the traveler) the US Government hangs the ‘closed’ sign.”
How is the sector doing? It is not the only warning he issues. The WTTC recently recalled that the US inbound tourism market has suffered the loss of 11 million visitors in just four years, between 2019 and 2025. The organization does not go into details or delve into the data. The one who does it is the UN, although for the whole of North America. According to your statisticsIn 2019, the region received 146.6 million foreign visitors. In 2025 there were 135.4.
That period has coincided with the pandemic and its subsequent hangover, but in recent months it has been marked by international politics led by Trump, with threats of one kind or another to the EU, Mexico and above all Canada and Greenlandterritories that the Republican wants to annex to the United States.
Why is it a problem? “When eleven million international visitors fail to show up, the result is billions of dollars in economic losses for the travel industry,” warns in The New York Times Erik Hansen, director of the United States Travel Association.
As the New York media recalls, the Trump administration has not made it easy for travelers, restricting entry from a dozen countries and announcing measures that would make visas more expensive and would force tourists to undergo deep scrutiny to enter the country. With that backdrop, there are those who already has called for a boycott trips to the US, even during the world cupamong other reasons for protest due to the actions of ICE.
Images | ANDilis Garvey (Unsplash), Gianandrea Villa (Unsplash)
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