The price of olive oil sang “the wolf is coming” a few months ago. At the end of August, and after a few months of free fallwith prices very far of the peaks from a couple of years agothe “liquid gold” seemed to was picking up again. This has been the case, and a worse than expected harvest has negative consequences on the price of extra virgin oil.
The good news is that it is not as alarming as it was a few years ago.
In short. 2024 and 2025 have not been years of good harvests for some products. In South America it has spent with coffee (and we carry the consequences throughout the year). It has happened with the grapes (and we will notice it in the wine), and it seems that it has not been favorable for the olive either. As they point out from The Confidentialthe latest data from Department of agriculture (some great graphs for database lovers) indicate an average price at origin of 4.56 euros per liter of extra virgin.
The data offered in Oleista (which shows both extra virgin and virgin through various market sources) are in the same line: 4.11 euros, which translates into 53% more in the last 10 days compared to the previous period. And you may think “it’s not that much”, but the problem is that a white label bottle (final product, not origin) is around 4.65 euros per liter.
Margins. Those nine cents difference are few, but it means that the chains have fewer margins, which is why they raise the price of that final product. Some chains are already doing it. There are several ways to see the price history of some supermarkets to follow its evolution. An example is SuperSupersbut FACUA also offers a somewhat clearer service: less historical, but more short-term information that can help us see recent evolution.
According to their information, a liter of Hacendado extra virgin olive oil cost 4.65 euros 30 days ago. Today it is for 4.95 euros after an increase of 6.45%. But you don’t have to go back a month: according to the ‘snitch’, a week ago the price was 6.45% lower.
When will we notice it?. The answer is obvious: now. And, of course, the question that arises is why a few months ago it took us a while to see that oil prices in the supermarket were still high when originally they had fallen sharply… and now that the situation is the other way around, they are readjusting so quickly.
Times depend on several factors, but above all on stock and supply contracts. In general, adjustment is usually seen after a few monthsbut when that applies to increases, the change is much more immediate. In the end, it is a tremendously volatile market and, although In March the rains invited optimism in the price of olive oil, if these last years have taught us anything it is that two weeks of heat are enough above normal so that an entire olive campaign goes to waste.
Far from the peak. It is similar to egg pricewhich has had a negative streak, but when the stabilization was there, the outbreak of avian flu appeared, which has skyrocketed the price of eggs and has had other disastrous consequences: touch the price of nougat. It’s like a pyramid of cards.
However, and despite those close to five euros per liter of white label extra virgin oil, the way to console ourselves is that we are far – very far – from what we experienced just two years agowhen going to the ‘supermarket’ was a pain because you knew you were going to pay about 10 euros per liter of oil.
Preumification. But in the background there is another important issue – that house of cards that I was commenting on. A few prices is a sum and continues in a supermarket basket that is increasingly more expensive when salaries do not rise at the same rate. It is one more element that supports household income, especially in countries like Spain where olive oil is a basic product.
And, although this is a much more personal note, it will be a sad day when olive oil in Spain is a premium product like in other countriesand we have to use other vegetable oils or even butter to cook. A cultural and even identity loss.
Images | David Clode, Antonio Molin
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