In 1962, the world looked on the edge of the nuclear abyss when the United States discovered the installation of Soviet missiles in Cubaa few kilometers from its coasts. The tension derived from that geopolitical pulse symbolized the fragility of the strategic balance and the ease with which a technological advance or risky play could precipitate the planet towards a total confrontation. Today, more than sixty years later, United States evokes That historical episode when warning about a similar threat, although transferred to space.
A new crisis. The announcement that Russia would be developing a Orbital nuclear weapon Able to disable the totality of the satellites in land low orbit has turned on alarms in Washington, with direct comparisons to That crisis of the missiles of Cuba that we commented.
According to the declassified data For the US Congress, this system would combine an initial physical attack that would generate a reaction in orbital destruction chain with a nuclear pulse destined to fry the electronics of all affected satellites.
The result. It would be, in his opinion, devastating: With the collapse of GPS, communications, intelligence and early missile alert systems, all critical elements for global safety and economy.
The United States argues that the weapon, not yet operational, could be unusable for orbit for a whole yeargenerating an unprecedented strategic vacuum in which both Washington and its allies would be exposed to conventional or even nuclear threats without the coverage of their space constellations.
The role of satellites. Today orbit More than 12,000 satellites that fulfill vital functions for modern life: from television and navigation services to international military and economic architecture. In fact, the war in Ukraine has already demonstrated its vulnerability when the Russian attack against Viasat In 2022 he left tens of thousands of users without service in much of Europe.
More recently, the kidnapping of a satellite signal to issue the Victory Day Parade In Ukraine he showed how cyberspace and outer space are intertwined as new battlefields. The experts They warn that it is enough to exploit outdated software or insecure communication links to disable key satellites, which makes space a Achilles heel of Western democracies.
The new space race. We have gone counting. The announcement of the possible Russian weapon coincides with the resurgence of the Spatial competition for the domain of the extraterrestrial resources. The moon has become The centerpiece Of this rivalry: its wealth In Helio-3fuel potential for future nuclear fusion reactors, has triggered plans to establish permanent bases.
NASA advertisement the installation of a small nuclear reactor as an initial step to consolidate presence before they do so Russia or Chinathat they already project their own lunar plants. The control of strategic areas of the lunar surface is perceived as a determinant to define the next global hegemony in energy and technology, in a context where the growing demand for energy for artificial intelligence accelerates competition.
China between half. While Russia is silent about the alleged antisatellite weapon, China has reacted denouncing Washington for “militarizing space” and accusing it to expand military alliances that convert spatial domain into a war zone.
Beijing insists that he opposes an arms race outside the earth, although in parallel promotes projects of space mining and Bases on the Moon that place it on the same competitive board as the United States and Russia. Chinese rhetoric is presented as a guarantor of the international order against a United States accused of exacerbating tension, although the simultaneous development of Technological capabilities of Great reach It reveals a broader power game.
Washington’s response. Created In 2019the US space force has assumed the task of protecting national interests in orbit, from communications constellations to military intelligence and navigation satellites. Its fleet includes The X-37ban unmanned ferry that executes prolonged secret missions In orbit and symbolizes Washington’s will to dominate this area.
Although small compared to branches such as the army or the navy, the space force It expands and the pentagon Plan to consolidate Soon its headquarters. For US military controls, safe access to space is already a vital interest in national security. The perspective of Russia deploying a space nuclear weapon raises the challenge to a Unpublished scale: The possible paralysis of world satellite infrastructure, with military, economic and psychological consequences comparable to a strategic nuclear attack.
A turning point. Be that as it may, the ghost of a “missile crisis in space” reflects that the competition is no longer limited to land, sea and air, not even to cyberspace, but reaches the orbital and lunar domain as new power scenarios.
If the United States is right and Russia is allowed to advance with An antisatellite weaponthe global strategic balance could be altered radically, inaugurating an era in which the great powers dispute not only territories, but also access to the infrastructure that sustains modern life.
The urgency, both for some and for others, seems clear: or firm limits are established in the military use of space, or the risk that the next great international crisis explodes hundreds of kilometers above our heads will be increasingly real.
Image | Steve Jurvetson
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