The worst is coming

After more than a month of talking about warm events and extreme temperatures, the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet) already talks about the probable arrival of a heat wave, the first of this year.

Special notice. After a brief truce in the heat caused by the Dana who has traveled these days part of Spain, Aemet points out that the return of high temperatures will be especially extreme. So much so that has issued a special notice by heat wave that will be in force in much of the country.

Specifically, the special notice will affect the Peninsula, “except Northwest Quadrant and Cantabrian Area,” says the agency. The situation will begin on Saturday 28 (although the previous days will also be warm) if the forecasts are met, and will last, at least, until Tuesday, July 1.

What can we expect? As Aemet summarized on social networks, we can expect temperatures that exceed 40º-42º Celsius, with minimal that could be maintained above 23º-25º in some areas. The latter implies that a wide part of the country will live the phenomenon of the “Tropical nights“, With areas on the edge of the calls”Equatorial nights”. These phenomena refer to the nights in which the temperature does not fall from the 20th and the 25º respectively.

The most affected areas. Although The notice It affects a good part of the peninsular territory, the forecasts of temperatures above 40º will particularly affect some areas. According to the agency, the southern half and, more specifically, the southwest quadrant will be the most affected areas, although the depressions of the Northeast could also see the thermometers to overcome this mark of the 40º.

On Sunday 29 and Monday 30, the “high days” of the heat wave, this brand could be overcome not only in the valleys of the Guadiana, Ebro and the Guadalquivir but also in the Tagus Valley. According to the agency, these days it will be “very likely” that in the Guadalquivir environment they will exceed 42º.

How have we get here? According to Aemet’s notice, the arrival from the African continent an anticyclone at medium and high levels will be mainly responsible for the situation. This anticyclone will bring an air “very warm and relatively dry.” Atmospheric stability will imply a higher level of insolation that will continue to heating this mass of air.

The situation do not take unnoticed many Knowing The dynamics of the last weeks. The forecasts indicated that the effects of the Dana’s passage would be brief and that the influence of the high pressures would condition the meteorology again. The low atmospheric circulation is one of the conditioning factors that have brought us to this extreme situation.

When do we hope it ends? The heat wave will be extended at least until Tuesday 1, but there is a logic uncertainty regarding this medium -term forecast. According to Aemet points outthe “most likely scenario” places the end of the episode between Tuesday and Miercols 2, when a thermal descent would begin that would begin in the west to extend from Thursday by the Peninsular North. The agency warns, of course, that temperatures can be kept on the verge of 40º in areas of the southwest quadrant.

In Xataka | At the end of May we reached 40ºC: it is only the appetizer of the decimer summer a consecutive warmer than normal according to aemet

Image | ECMWF