Right now there are thousands and thousands of tons of olive oil embarking on the United States

If there is a word that perfectly defines the current state of the Spanish agricultural sector, that word is: chaos. While many wine and oil companies They anticipate sales up to six months to the US To avoid the tariff effect, others Cancel hundreds of orders. That’s why, As the dreaded April 9 approachesthe bags fall and the world prepares to a more than possible recession. The question that everyone of oil is done is what will happen to what was supposed to be the first quiet year after the great crisis.

Before tariffs. As Rafael Pico explainedDirector of the Spanish Association of Olive Oil Exporting Industry and Commerce and Oil Oils, between the months of January and March, dozens of companies in the sector have advanced their exports to the US. In January alone, the last month of which we have consolidated data, increased by 5,000 tons compared to the previous year. In February and March similar (or higher) figures are expected.

Six months. That is, according to their own calculations, six months of consumption. And it can be considered a “security mat” waiting for Europe and the US to agree. The same has happened with wine, but not so much with other perishable products (such as hams or sausages). However, the oil is different for a simple reason: there is no substitute.

Is there no substitute? Although it is true that countries such as Morocco, Turkey, Australia, Argentina or Chile could benefit from tariffs (because it will be half that Europeans), the truth is that none of those markets can satisfy the thirst of aciete of North America. 80% of the oil consumed in the US comes from Europe, explained from the COAG.

Its own production, if we want to have the complete perspective, are about 6,000 tons of a set of 350,000. Who could put those amounts of oil on the table?

In addition, we come from very high prices. That is something that also plays in favor of Spanish oil: last year We saw prices at 9 euros and now they are 3.5. In this context, you just have to contain a bit the fall in prices to the end user so that the effect of tariffs is not noticed. In fact, it is possible that the Ahroa price with tariffs is lower than in previous campaigns.

They are good news, right? Not everything. Because, as it is, it is expected that sales fall and, in addition, there is a country with much higher tariffs that will have to redirect its production to Europe: Tunisia. It is true that we speak only of 56,000 tons per year in Spain, but an indiscriminate increase at this time can erode the profitability of many drying farms.

The background problem. It is that the tariff war will distort the entire market. And it will make it the recovery of the sector is very complicated. It doesn’t hurt to remember that We have been very bad for a few years and that most producers concentrate on surviving.

The dust that is raising all this commercial battle makes it very difficult to make decisions in the future. The problem is that it is time to take them.

Image | Dimitri Karastelev

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