Xi Jinping has reappeared after 16 days of silence. What we did not imagine was what was activated during his absence

Xi Jinping has reappeared after 16 days without public presence. He has done it on June 4 in An official meeting with Belaruso President Alexander Lukashenko In Beijing.

His return ends an unusually long absence that, for the moment it has occurred and for the international context, unleashed a wave of speculation about his health, his power within the communist party and the course of the second world economy.

Why is it important. The disappearance of XI coincided with a rebound in tensions with the United States, marked by threats of new sanctions and a progressive deterioration of bilateral relations.

In that context, the lack of visibility of the maximum Chinese leader has generated uncomfortable questions: was he sick? Were there internal movements against him? Who was making decisions in his place?

The facts. Three signals fed the noise, as reported Nikkei Asia:

• The Politburo did not celebrate its monthly May meeting, or at least it did not communicate it, something stipulated by the Statutes of the party. Although there is no obligation to make it public, its silence was striking.
• The Defense Minister was absent from the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore, the most important security conference in Asia.
• The name of Miao Hua, head of the political department of the Popular Liberation Army, has disappeared from the official website.

In parallel, it was confirmed The death of former vice president of the Central Military Commission, Xu Qiliangofficially due to illness. But his death occurred in a context of constant purges in the army and rumors – not verified – of suicides between high controls under investigation for corruption or disloyalty. The opacity of the system, far from containing the conjectures, amplifies them.

Between bambalins. As collected NTD —Inly linked to the Falun Gong movement, openly critical of the regime, “three possible scenarios were shuffled:

• XI could be sick after years of power concentration.
• He would be orchestrating unprecedented internal reforms.
• It would face a rebellion of the marginalized factions since 2012.

The most drastic hypothesis: that high positions of the party would have agreed to resign, possibly in August.

• An important nuance: NTD It is not a neutral source. It is convenient to take into account his critical bias with the Communist Party and his militant editorial line. The hypotheses that it raises are not contrasted by independent sources.

The context. China lives a especially sensitive moment. The economy slows down, tensions with Taiwan intensify and Trump insists with its tariff war. As I pointed out The Diplomatthe absence of XI just now projects weakness in the worst possible time.

It would not be the first time that a Chinese leader responds to questioning with a symbolic gesture: in 1966, when he doubted the health of Mao Zedong, The leader swam publicly through Yangtsé To demonstrate strength.

And now what. XI has reappeared, but the episode leaves an uncomfortable conclusion: even a two -week blackout is enough to activate the radar. When power depends on both its image and its actions, any emptiness is perceived as a crack.

The next big appointment will be the Fourth Fourth of the Central Committeeplanned for August, and with him the traditional summer retreat in Beidaihe, where a good part of the party’s strategy is drawn. There will be special interest in seeing him again.

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