Ukraine has returned from Europe with 250 fighter jets under its arm. The problem is that only Spain has told him the truth

The new European trip of the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has finished in Spain and has crystallized into a military agenda that aims to reconfigure the Ukrainian air force over the next decade, based on political agreements of enormous symbolic scope. If nothing goes wrong, the Ukrainian nation has nothing less than 250 European fighters under his arm along with a huge aid package and arsenal.

The problem is that the financing is very uncertain and its execution is very distant.

Aerial reconstruction as a continental ambition. In Paris, the Ukrainian president signed a letter of intent to acquire up to one hundred Rafale fightersdevices that France presents as the heart of the future defense of Ukraine, complemented by Samp/T systemsnew generation drones, guided munitions and incipient industrial cooperation to manufacture interceptors on Ukrainian territory.

The French bet aims to elevate Ukraine to European technological standardintegrating it into a long-term security architecture and relying on a financing framework yet to be defined, where the European Union and frozen Russian assets appear as the great promise, although deeply controversial. The political gesture, celebrated as historic in parisresponds to the French ambition to lead the regeneration of Ukrainian air power and to reinforce the role of its defense industry in a continent that is rapidly rearming.

Doubts about the bet. Diplomatic enthusiasm contrasts with operational uncertainties. They remembered TWZ analysts either The Wall Street Journal that Ukraine does not have of the financial margin to pay for neither the acquisition nor the maintenance of a hundred Rafale, and France is going through a period of budget fragility which makes sustained long-term commitments difficult. The idea that Europe could finance the purchase through new joint debt mechanisms or from income generated by frozen Russian assets divides the states members and poses enormous legal risks, especially for Belgium, which holds most of those funds.

Added to this is the industrial reality: the Dassault production chain is saturatedwith deliveries committed for years, and the manufacturing of 100 additional devices would require extraordinary efforts. The perspective of a parallel program, with 150 Swedish Gripen also agreed in the preliminary phase, increases doubts about whether Ukraine could sustain, train and maintain such a vast fleet of 4/5th generation aircraft. For many, the initiative reflects more a political movement to keep France at the center of the Ukrainian equation and to boost European industry in the face of a United States more distantthan a realistic military acquisition plan in the short or medium term.

A Gripen fighter

The military horizon. Zelensky’s trip has also highlighted the arrival of a winter that anticipates a new Russian campaign focused in energy infrastructure and strategic cities. France insists that Samp/T systems are demonstrating remarkable effectiveness against Russian missiles with a complex trajectory, even higher, some French commanders claim, than the performance of the Patriot in certain scenarios.

In parallel, Paris reinforces its role as a provider of interim air capabilities, including Mirage fighters and precision ammunition, while promoting a future coalition of countries Europeans willing to guarantee the security of Ukraine after an eventual ceasefire, a project still impossible as long as Moscow rejects any negotiation. This strategy, which attempts to combine immediate support with an architecture of long term securityreveals both French determination and the continent’s real limitations in simultaneously sustaining the current war and future rearmament.

Among others, Spanish military aid to Ukraine will consist of 40 IRIS-T missiles

Spain and the contrast with the promises. The final stop of the trip, in Madrid, has revealed a very marked contrast between the declarative exuberance of some allies and the measured (and often austere) approach of the Spanish Government. Spain announced a package of 817 million of euros, which includes 300 million in nationally produced weapons, 215 million channeled through European programs and additional 100 million to acquire US missiles through PURL initiative of NATO.

It is a significant effort in political and logistical terms, but modest in comparison with the great European powers and especially small in the face of the air ambitions presented in France or Sweden. In practice, it is a calibrated support for immediate needs from the Ukrainian winter: anti-aircraft missiles to repel drones and protect critical infrastructures, plus a commitment to accelerate joint industrial capabilities in areas where Spanish companies (with Indra at the head) can offer practical solutions such as deployable radars or anti-drone systems.

Spain and realism. If you also want, the Spanish case reflects a much more realistic line than that of other countries visited by Zelensky. Since the beginning of the war, Spain has contributed with useful materialsbut in many cases coming from surplus (Leopard 2A4 retired, M113 obsolete, Hawk batteries aging) and has prioritized its participation in European programs where the direct cost to its budget is lower.

In comparative terms, and especially measured as a percentage of GDP, Spain is far behind of the hard core of military support for Ukraine. However, what it offers now is probably more sincere and sustainable: an acceptable package, focused on urgent and realistic needs, that does not promise fighter fleets, perhaps impossible to finance, or industrial projects that exceed national capacity.

Spanish extra ball. Furthermore, Spain stands out where other countries they can’t: in the reception of refugees, in the medical rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers and in light but reliable industrial cooperation. So, on that journey that began with spectacular advertisements in Paris and Stockholm, the Spanish stop has served to balance in a way the expectations.

In that sense, Spain appears as one of the few allies that gauges its support by looking ahead. the budget figuresavoiding promising what it will be difficult to fulfill and remaining firm in what it can offer: a modest but operational contribution.

Image | Ronnie MacdonaldTuomo Salonen, Air and Space Army Ministry of Defense Spain

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