China’s 125% tariffs are the entrance door to an even more drastic process: “decoupling”

The New Tariff war between Washington and Beijing It is creating the conditions for a total separation of the two largest economies in the world, something that just one year ago seemed unthinkable.

What’s happening. Trump has suspended the highest tariffs for dozens of countries for 90 daysbut those applied to China has increased to 125%, marking a clear strategy: isolate Beijing.

This rotation is not a decala. On the contrary, it is an attempt to form a common front against China, turning what seemed like a multilateral commercial conflict in a bilateral confrontation.

In figures. The magnitude of this break is huge:

• 73% of the phones that the United States uses from China.
• 78% computers have Chinese origin.
• 87% of video game consoles.
• And 77% of toys.

Between the lines. This crisis is not accidental, but calculated strategy. Trump first created a worldwide threat and then appeared as someone reasonable by offering a partial truce. For all except for China, on whom it maintains maximum pressure.

“We can reach an agreement with our allies”, said The Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent. “They have been good military allies, although not so good in the economic. And then we can face China as a united block.”

The background. 125% tariffs account for a practically impassable barrier for trade. It is not only protectionism, but total economic decoupling.

The impact is immediate: Goldman Sachs has trimmed its growth forecast for China From 4.5% to 4% by 2025. Meanwhile, 19 billion dollars have vanished from world stock markets since February, according to Bloomberg.

And now what. We go towards A world economy divided into blockssomething not seen from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Beijing has already suggested that he could devalue a Yuan already increasingly weak. And has warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the United States.

Chinese authorities have made it clear that they will not be the first step to negotiate, while Trump says he is “waiting” for his call.

The key moment. Trump’s strategy goes through a vision of zero sum: use the size of the US market as a lever and create conditions for other countries Choose side. Block. Island.

“Trust has vanished,” says Da Wei, director of the International Security and Strategy Center at the Tsinghua University in Beijing. “In the balance between economic development and economic security, security will always be emphasized. This is a long -term change.”

• Global supply chains have been built for decades of a globalization now questioned.
• And also now face a change of roles whose consequences are impossible to anticipate with certainty.

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