Europe is preparing for another winter by looking askance at the gas tanks and the thermometer. The heating they start to light up and the alarms, again, too. According to a report by McKinsey & Companyglobal gas demand will increase by 26% by 2050. The figure clashes with the scenario necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, which would require reducing consumption by more than 75%.
The bridge fuel. In theory, Europe had learned the lesson after the energy crisis of 2022. But three winters later, the board still showing cracks. The main regasification plants in the Netherlands – Gate and Eemshaven – operate at 90% or 100% of their capacity, and their saturation “is the prelude to higher prices.” They are the gateway for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for Germany and a good part of the European industry.
Meanwhile, Spain boasts of having the largest regasification capacity in the EU, with six active terminals, but it can provide little relief to the rest of the continent: interconnections with France barely allow the export of between 7,000 and 8,500 million cubic meters per year. The bottleneck it’s clear: the dependence is no longer on Russia, but on a few port infrastructures that operate at their limits. The result feels on the bill: The regulated gas rate in Spain rose up to 20% in October, but international gas became slightly cheaper, regulated tolls and the increase in winter demand drove up costs.
Europe facing winter. The European Union enters winter with gas reserves at 83%the lowest level since the beginning of the energy crisis and ten points below the historical average. The European Commission had set a target of 90%which has not been fulfilled.
Meteorologists, in addition, warn of a colder winter than the previous three, which could trigger consumption. Despite this, Brussels does not speak of panic but of caution. ENTSOG—the body that brings together gas system operators— estimates that even In a high demand scenario, no country would have to cut supply. However, he warns of a real risk: “A cold wave in autumn could increase pressure on prices,” especially as Europe compete with Asia for the available LNG.
A future that does not deviate from gas. The panorama drawn by the consulting firm McKinsey it’s clear:
- Global energy consumption will continue to grow by 10% to 15% until 2050.
- Fossil fuels, despite the rise of renewables, will continue to represent between 41% and 55% of the world’s energy mix.
- And natural gas, far from disappearing, will remain the pillar of the electrical system and the chemical industryespecially in Asia and the Middle East.
The energy transition, the consultancy warns, has lost speed. The priority is no longer decarbonization, but safety and affordability. Or, as the report summarizes: “The gas doesn’t go down, it just moves.” As the electrification of industry and transportation advances, gas demand remains a backup for the system, exacerbating the paradox: each installed renewable megawatt still needs gas behind it. Even in its intermediate scenario, McKinsey estimates a global temperature rise of 2.3°C, well above the Paris Agreement target.
The way out: the flexibility that is missing. The consulting firm points to a structural solution: flexibility. Europe will need 75% more flexibility mechanisms before 2030 to integrate renewables without depending on gas. This study estimates that European companies They could capture up to 8 billion euros annually if they invest in demand-side response (DSR) solutions: systems capable of adjusting industrial electricity consumption based on renewable production. In other words, moving demand instead of turning on gas when there is no sun or wind.
Several examples from the report show how this new flexibility works: a French paper company managed to multiply its reaction capacity by electrifying its boilers and using thermal storage. In the Netherlands, a greenhouse combines solar energy, batteries and electric boilers to make better use of its production and earn about 300,000 euros per year. And in the United Kingdom, a supermarket chain can reduce its consumption at times of high demand without interrupting its activity. Together, these solutions – batteries, digital control and intelligent systems – allow the electrical grid to adapt instantly, without depending on gas.
Between two models. Europe has the generation of the future, but it continues to operate with the rules of the past. The electrical grid still depends on gas to stay on its feet, and transition plans are running slower than the thermometer.
McKinsey warns that gas will grow by 26% until 2050, just when it should fall by 75%. It is the portrait of a contradiction: while science asks to slow down, the system steps on the accelerator. The coming winter will once again measure us, not only in degrees or reserves, but in political will. Because energy stability and climate stability, today, are already the same thing.
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