650 billion dollars. There it is nothing. That is the total amount that Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are going to invest in data centers for AI. That amount of money is astonishing and is similar to the current GDP of countries like Argentina or Israel. But the curious thing is not only that: there is a Big Tech that is totally ignoring this fever to spend on AI as if there were no tomorrow.
Apple against the current. The company led by Tim Cook is the only one of the group of large technology companies whose capex (planned capital expenditure) was reduced last quarter. Based on FactSet data compiled by SherwoodApple’s forecasts for that quarter were not to spend more, but attention, spend (quite a bit) less.
The numbers don’t lie. According to the data provided by these companies, Amazon expects that in 2026 its capex reaches up to 200,000 million dollars. Google wants to go from 175,000 to 185,000 million. Meta estimates that the expense will be between 115,000 and the 135,000 million. And although Microsoft did not give a specific figure, it surely exceeds the $114 billion estimated by Wall Street. And Apple? Apple will not spend more, but 19% according to its latest estimates: about $12.7 billion.
- Amazon: +42% YoY (vs. previous year)
- Microsoft: +89% YoY
- Google: +95% YoY
- Goal: +48% YoY
- Apple: -19% YoY
Cupertino goes from AI. While its competitors spent record sums last quarter (which ended December 31) on the purchase of material and properties linked to the AI sector and data centers, Apple continues not to invest in this sector. It is something that makes it clear that the company seems to have definitively decided that this is not its war.
Siri+Gemini is the best test. Confirmation of that “surrender” is in the recent announcement that Gemini will be the AI on which the new version of Siri will be based. Apple’s new AI assistant is expected to hit the market this spring with at least some initial features, but the fact that it does so depends entirely on Google’s AI model makes it clear that Apple here prefers to delegate rather than invest to have its own foundational model.
AI will be a commodity. Instead of participating in this costly war of language models, Apple is clear that AI is going to end up being a commodity, something that is going to become a basic standard technology like the PC, mobile phone or laptop is now. Model prices plummet as the capacity of those models grows, and benchmarks make it clear that no model is better than another for long.
Apple as a gateway to AI. As usual, what Apple will do is take advantage of the fact that has the “gateway to AI. With 2.4 billion devices worldwide, it controls the most valuable distribution channel on the planet. It has the luxury of not making “the engine,” but rather acting as an avenue to bring AI to the masses. Here agreements like the one it has completed with Google are just the beginning.
It doesn’t matter being late. It is something that is in the company’s DNA. He also did not want to fight the search engine battle, but it did not matter: he reached an agreement with Google, which has paid him billions of dollars for years to be able to put its search engine as the default engine on iPhones, iPads and Macs. Apple prefers that others pave the way and absorb the costs of early learning. Then she usually arrives with superior integration and a refined experience (iPod, iPhone) or directly with deals like the one she completed in the search engine space.
AI will be invisible and ubiquitous. Apple’s goal doesn’t seem to be to offer its own chatbot on the web, but to make AI invisible and ubiquitous. It doesn’t matter which model runs behind it, but simply that this AI works transparently for the user. And it does so, of course, seamlessly integrated into Apple services and applications.
Privacy by flag. And of course, with that vaunted commitment to privacy that Apple always boasts of. Its Private Cloud Compute is the best proof of this. By not relying on advertising (hello Google, hello OpenAI), it is able to offer advanced features without collecting massive data from users.
But there is risk. Still, the strategy has a critical risk: if AI models become a commodity and end up creating technological monopolies, Apple could be permanently at the mercy of its suppliers. If these competitive advantages end up being consolidated in the model layer – the one controlled by OpenAI, Anthropic and Google – and not in the integration layer – which is Apple’s – the dependence on third parties will be a dangerous strategic weakness.
Room for maneuver. Apple has annual benefits close to 100 billion dollars, which gives it an enviable financial position to wait for this “hype” cycle to cool down. It is clear that there is an AI bubble and that bubble will probably end up exploding and leaving many victims. If it does, one of those that will undoubtedly have room to maneuver to survive will be Apple.
Image | Xataka with Freepik
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