Why giant rockets could become a flop

SpaceX, Blue Origin, NASA… There are many companies, public and private, that want to build the largest rocket in history. Currently, the largest is SpaceX’s Starshipwhich together with its propellant, the Super Heavy, is 121 meters high. However, this has not yet passed the testing phases. The highest one in operation is the SLS that NASA has used to advance the Artemis missions, 98 meters high. The goal is to build bigger and bigger rockets. However, a new report warns that there may actually be a limit beyond which larger rockets become too expensive to be profitable.

A fuzzy limit. The reportpublished on June 29, was carried out by The Aerospace Corp. It points out that it is true that, in principle, larger and heavier rockets can initially be more economical in the sense that they maximize the payload that can be carried into orbit for the same price. However, starting from a specific size, these savings would be offset by manufacturing and operating costs. We might think that the problem is solved with the use of reusable rockets, like those manufactured by SpaceX, but the operating costs are still there.

In the report they do not indicate exactly what that size would be, but they explain that, by exceeding it, it would go from a decreasing launch price per kilogram to an increasing one.

An example to understand it better. In the report they cite the case of the Airbus A380, a superjumbo aircraft that at the time was considered a technical success, but a commercial failure due to the high costs of a flight compared to those of smaller planes.

When they are necessary. In the future there will be increasingly larger payloads, which will depend on large rockets for their launch. For these cases, the increase in cost would be justified. These would be, for example, satellites for broadband constellations or orbital data centers. The problem is that it is not clear that demand will be high enough to justify so many companies wanting to have their own large rocket.

Those who are and those who will come. In this report, large rockets are considered those that are capable of releasing payloads of 50 metric tons into low Earth orbit. Today there are only two rockets in operation that meet these criteria: the Falcon Heavy from SpaceX and NASA’s SLS. There are others that are not yet fully operational, such as SpaceX’s Starship, the New Glenn from Blue Origin or the Long March 9 and 10 from China.

Starship would currently be the largest rocket

It should be noted that the Falcon Heavy has only made 12 flights since it was inaugurated in 2018. This could justify that, effectively, there is no demand for such large rockets. Although perhaps there will be one in the future. We’ll have to see it. For now, what is clear is that companies should take all factors into account, instead of jumping en masse to see who has the biggest rocket. That doesn’t always turn out well.

Images | NASA | SpaceX

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