queues

The conflict between the US, Israel and Iranand its consequent tension in the rest of the Middle East countries has been generating uncertainty in the energy markets for weeks. The barrel of Brent has risen nearly 30% so far this year, 8% this Monday alone. Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts upwards and prices at Spanish gas stations have already chained five consecutive increases. In Spain, we are preparing for a gradual rise in price of gasoline. So much so that already long queues have been detected at service stations in some parts of the country. One of the most striking examples has been this Costco in Sevillewhere his gas station is flooded by a flood of cars. A scenario that recalls, with important nuances, what happened in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. what’s happening. At the end of 2025, the price of fuel was giving some relief to drivers throughout Spain. Just like they count From El Motor, 95 gasoline had fallen by about 3.5% and diesel by more than 5% since November. However, this trend has ended in the most devastating and undesirable way possible: with another war. Image: Dieselogasolina.com (data extracted from the Ministry of Ecological Transition) According to the data from the Dieselogasolina web portal extracted from the Ministry of Ecological Transitionthe average price of 95 gasoline in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands stands at €1,557/l this March 4, compared to €1,531/l the previous day. Diesel has gone from €1,492/l to €1,539/l in the same day. Five consecutive increases that coincide with the escalation of war in the Middle East. A bottleneck. As you’ve probably heard or read, most of the problem has to do with the Strait of Hormuz, which has stopped its traffic due to this escalation of war and which is where approximately 20% of the world’s production of crude oil and liquefied natural gas transits. The barrel of Brent reached close to $80 in the first days of March, after accumulating nearly a 30% increase so far this year, as share The Vanguard. Europe does not import Iranian crude oil directly (90% of Iran’s exports go to China), but the blockade of the Strait affects the global reference price, and that price does reach European suppliers. What the experts say. Goldman Sachs this week revised upwards its forecast for the second quarter of 2026, in which it expects Brent stands on average at 76 dollars per barrelten dollars more than his previous estimate. The bank warns that risks are “significantly skewed to the upside,” as share the WSJ. And the bank points out that if exports through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted for five more weeks, Brent could reach $100. Àngel Hermosilla, general secretary of the Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya, points out told La Vanguardia that the energy market is “very volatile and very sensitive to any political action,” and that the impact could be felt at the pumps in a matter of days. And so it is, for now. On the other hand, the engine shared the words of Nacho Rabadán, spokesperson for the Spanish Confederation of Service Stations (CEEES), who explained to Trece that the suppliers have already communicated to the stations “an extra cost of between 10 and 12 cents per liter for the delivery tanks this Wednesday.” That is the purchase price for the gas stations, not the final price to the driver, but it anticipates that the increases will end up being passed on. Rabadán remembers what happened in 2022 with the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, at which time some stations held prices when the liter was around 1.80 euros, assuming losses, but then replacing the product “cost them up to 3,000 euros more per tanker.” On the other hand, the Organization of Consumers and Users (OCU) esteem that, if Brent stabilizes around $80, a rise of between 8 and 10 cents per liter could be expected in the coming weeks. Beyond the deposit. Eduard Conti, specialist in personal finances, counted La Vanguardia that when fuel prices rise, this affects all economic sectors, including food transportation, airline tickets, industrial manufacturing, etc. Conti points out that in Spain, inflation is currently around 2.3%, but the CPI has accumulated a 23% rise in the last five years. For his part, Philip Lane, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, recognized in an interview with the Financial Times that “the magnitude of the impact and the implications for inflation in the medium term depend on the extent and duration of the conflict.” It hasn’t really gone up yet. Prices, although on the rise, are still far from the historical highs recorded by the Ministry of Ecological Transition: 95 gasoline reached €2,152/L and diesel reached €2,106/L. “I hope that we do not reach two euros, although the truth is that the oil market has been very strange for years. The only thing I can say is that for us, the fact that it is only the fifty-third highest increase in history is already good news,” counted Rabadan. Cover image | engin akyurt and Juan Carlos Toro In Xataka | The US has launched its most ambitious weapon against Iran in the last decade: a missile that does not need fighters or warships