projections

It often feels like we are erasing the meaning of the word ‘historical’ by using it so much. And yet, here I am: about to say that seasonal prediction models show an “unprecedented” convergence in the same direction: an extremely strong El Niño before the end of 2026. If what the models say is confirmed, we could be facing the most powerful El Niño in at least 140 years. So yes, ‘historic’ is the appropriate word. But, first of all, let’s review what ENSO is. They are the acronym in English of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and they refer to a cyclical (although very irregular) climate phenomenon that has great effects on the global climate. Huge, in fact. If we exclude the stations, it is the most important source of annual climate variability from all over the planet. During the warm phase (that is, during El Niño), the absence of strong trade winds that cool the surface of the equatorial Pacific causes the temperature of that area of ​​the ocean to skyrocket. It is this, through different atmospheric teleconnectionswhich disrupts all the weather systems in the world. The effects are varied and change depending on the region (“drier conditions than normal in certain parts of the world; while in others it causes more precipitation. Some countries have to deal with major droughts and others with torrential rains”, says AEMET); but when we talk about temperatures there is no doubt: El Niño is synonymous with heat. Although, of course, that is in a normal ENSO. If we talk about the strongest ENSO event in a century and a half, everything skyrockets. The most likely conclusions tell us about a wild redistribution of heat globally, a more than likely temperature record for 2027 and a string of profound alterations in rainfall and hurricane patterns. And why do we think it will be like this? Fundamentally, because the convergence of the different models is a very strong indication. Not only is it that more than half of the probabilistic scenarios of the European model they project anomalies greater than +2.5 degrees in the equatorial Pacific, is that Zeke Hausfather (adding 433 members from 11 models) reaches the same conclusions. And what exactly is the news? Obviously, the news is not that El Niño is coming. We have already talked about that: The news is the strength (aggressiveness, even) with which it now appears in our projections. Or not even that. Because no one is very clear what an event of this type means in a climate context like the current one (it would arrive after three years above the 1.5 of the Paris Agreement). And that is a problem. “Problem”? It is also the most appropriate word. We must not forget that the super El Niño of 97-98, one of the strongest ENSOs in recent years, caused numerous consequences that lasted for years: the estimates say which caused damage to global economic growth of around 5.7 trillion dollars. If this event is greater than the one in ’97, the question is whether the improvements we have made since then are enough to contain the blow or not. The answer, I’m afraid, we will have in a few months. Image | Xataka In Xataka | “It is so extreme that it is difficult to believe”: El Niño forecasts depict an event of unprecedented intensity.