Hurricane

Do you know that hurricane that everyone speaks of? Well Aemet has just pronounced on Gabrielle

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In the last hours, Hurricane Gabrielle has reached category 4 in the middle of the Atlantic. That is, the countdown has begun: during the next few days, the cyclone will move to the east until Friday impacts with the Azores. Just after, the unknowns begin. Of those unknowns is what the weather information has been living in recent days. But now they begin to clear and, in fact, Aemet just said publicly That is on alert. And it is because, although as we said yesterday it is already clear that the Azores will take the worst part, the truth is that the scenarios in which the storm arrives at the peninsula are increasingly probable. Where is Gabrielle right now? Let’s start here. According to the latest notice of the National Hurricane Center in MiamiGabrielle is 2950 kilometers from the Azores. With sustained winds above the 220 km/h, the eye of the hurricane moves about 20 kilometers per hour to the northwest. And then? After passing through the Azores, Gabrielle “will stop being a hurricane.” Will suffer an extroatropical transition. That is to say “its intense wind field ceases to be located, exorbitant, circular, symmetrical and becomes expanding, becoming asymmetric and losing intensity.” That means that the Peninsula will approach the weekend as storm (something relatively common in autumn), but we do not know how, or when, or where exactly that transition will take place. What does all this mean? Well, right now, the most likely scenarios already give a discounted that Gabrielle He will approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” And he will catch us almost by surprise. Because, although from Monday to Wednesday there will be a fresh atmosphere with showers, from Thursday we will enjoy a warm and stable atmosphere. It will be The summer of San MigueLy will be short (maybe very short). Just after: it is possible that the bad sea, the rains and the strong winds make an appearance in the west peninsular. Image | HNC In Xataka | The largest Hurricane of the Atlantic progresses slowly 16 kilometers per hour. The problem is your address: Spain

After reviewing the 50 most likely scenarios, this is what we can expect from Hurricane Gabrielle Camino de Europa

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Hurricane Gabrielle advances through the central Atlantic at 16 kilometers per hour, feeding on warm waters, growing little by little, gaining speed. But none of that is especially important on this side of the ocean. It only matters one thing: that it is turning right in our direction. A changing scenario. Yesterday, the 50 most likely scenarios made it clear that the hurricane He was going to approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” That is, a meteorologically very complicated event right off the coast of the Peninsula. In fact, like The meteorologist González Alemán pointed outThere were “scenarios where it would not suffer an extroatropical transition, but would approach without losing its tropical cyclone.” We had to pay attention to the Atlantic. Today those scenarios are converging progressively and everything seems to indicate that the worst part will take the Azores. And, with “worse part” I am not being metaphorical. “Some of the possible scenarios carry pressure centers even below 970 HPA”; that is to say, A very deep storm (and wild). The problem is that there are still six days left. And that, indeed, is a lot. To get an idea, according to the National Hurricane Center, it is most likely that Gabrielle loses his hurricane category between 12 and 24 hours before reaching the Portuguese archipelago. We already knew that Spain, like reminds us in Meteovigoit is difficult for him to llgue with the intensity of a hurricane because there are several “shields” that protect us (essentially deep water and polar jet). However, that does not mean that the impact of a storm of this type cannot be very intense. How of “intense”? That will be the question that we have alert for the rest of the week. If we have to listen to the current trend, it does not seem that the Peninsula will receive a direct impact. However, as I said, everything is very open. And in a season like this that is to say a lot. Because, although experts anticipated that the season was going to be relatively active, the truth is that the Atlantic Hurricanes factory has been surprisingly calm. Is there yet time to change this? Without a doubt, but there is less time left. Image | In Xataka | Without hurricanes in sight in the Atlantic: experts warn that it is not convenient to trust the final stretch

Aemet has already concluded the heat wave. Now experts look at Hurricane Erin to know if the cold will endure

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After a heat wave long and intenseSpain begins to travel a few days of thermal relief. However, after several warm episodes, it is worth asking whether the stabilization of temperatures will last over time or if on the contrary the heat will return. Days of calm ahead. Everything seems to indicate that we have several days in which temperatures will remain within normality. We will even see several days in which these will be something below the usual for these summer dates, According to the forecasts of the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet). So much so that even the rebound of temperatures that are expected towards the end of this week and beginnings of the next will not lead us to a particularly warm situation. The cold thermal anomalies At some points they could be below the nine degrees in some areas of the peninsular center, according to expert predictions. Gone is therefore the last heat wave, an episode that has not only been intense but also Looking at the western Atlantic. At the beginning of the week we pointed out that experts looked closely at what happened these days in places as far from our territory as the Western Atlantic and the Antilles archipelago. The reason was in the tropical storm Erin, a storm that reached the category of hurricane and whose journey seemed to turn to the north first and northeast later, undertaking a direction that would take her from the tropical waters to middle latitudes. Why interest? The key is on the impact that this storm could have on atmospheric circulation in these latitudes. According to explained a few days ago The physicist, disseminator and researcher at Aemet, German JJ, the emergence of this cyclone into medium latitudes could complicate the average weather prediction in Europe. Erin regroups. Erin seems to follow the established script and is already in the north direction. The storm has restructured in the last hours, so it can be expected that its progress will continue during the next few days. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States, the hurricane is off the coast of Florida. If the forecasts are completed, the storm will run in parallel to the east coast of the US during the next few days and between Friday and Saturday will reach the 40th parallel, already standing in our latitude. This, details German In another publicationimplies an important change in both atmospheric circulation and in the Jet Stream On the Atlantic, which will strengthen the cooling effect we are now seeing. “Thanks to this, atmospheric dynamics in our region will give a radical change, seem more like that of autumn,” he says. Uncertainty. We will have to wait to learn more about Erin’s course and its impacts, direct or indirect, about Europe. This hurricane reached category 5, becoming the first significant hurricane in a relatively meek season in Atlantic waters. The good news is that, if we can reach our environment, it will already do so as a subtropical storm or post-tropical cyclone, probably entering the continent to higher latitudes than ours. In Xataka | We have centuries studying the different types of clouds. What tells us the shape and color of these atmospheric phenomena Image | NHC / ECMWF

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