Gabrielle is at the doors

He Hurricane Gabrielle It has become what the NHC (National Hurricane Center), the US agency dedicated to the surveillance of tropical storms, calls a post-tropical cyclone. Right now the storm The Azores Archipelago crossesbut the models indicate that their arrival to the continent will be through the Iberian Peninsula. Any Sunday. Meteorological forecasts indicate that former Gabrielle The Peninsula will arrive on Sundaytouching land in Portugal. Of course, its effects could begin to notice hours before this arrival, even during the Saturday afternoon. As explained by the State Meteorology Agency (Aemet), Gabrielle will already become an extropest storm. For now, uncertainty prevails regarding how the arrival of the storm will be, but we can expect instability to affect a good part of the Southwest Peninsular during the weekend. Gabrielle’s itinerary. Gabrielle began his journey as a tropical storm in the central area of ​​the Atlantic and took northwest direction until he approached Bermuda. Before reaching the archipelago, the storm intensified until reaching the hurricane category, and then Make a turn of about 90º and put towards the northwest and then in the direction of the Peninsula. The models indicate that Gabrielle’s most likely route will take the storm to touch the ground near Lisbon During the early hours of Sunday. The route would continue to head southeast, in the direction of the Gulf of Cádiz. “High uncertainty. ” As Aemet points out, there is a “high uncertainty” not only with respect to the trace of the storm, also with respect to its possible evolution. The agency for now has issued some yellow notices by risk of rains in Western Andalusia, where accumulated 30 mm are expected in six hours. You can expect the notices to change as the information will be more accurate. What they tell us Aemet’s forecasts We can expect abundant cloudiness. The agency indicates that the possibility of rainfall during Sunday will extend throughout practically the entire territory, although it is in the southwest (also in the Cantabrian and part of the Mediterranean coast) where they are more likely. With respect to the winds, large gales are not expected for now due to the weakening of the cyclone. Aemet speaks of “moderate winds in the northwest coastlines, with intervals of strong and Possible very strong gustsoccasionally moderate in the Gulf of Cádiz, Balearic Islands and areas of the Peninsular Northwest Third ”. Behind Gabrielle, Humberto. While we leave doubts about what Gabrielle will hold, the tropical storm Humberto could take a similar route. For now this formation advances west through the waters of the Atlantic. However, forecasts indicate that the storm will turn north before touching land in North America. This could put Humberto on the course of the east towards the second half of next week. There is still much for it for what we will have to wait to know the evolution of this potential hurricane and the real possibilities that their remnants reach us as those of Gabrielle are. In Xataka | Google has demonstrated with its AI that the prediction of storms and hurricanes is outdated. This is how your new model works Image | ECMWF

Do you know that hurricane that everyone speaks of? Well Aemet has just pronounced on Gabrielle

In the last hours, Hurricane Gabrielle has reached category 4 in the middle of the Atlantic. That is, the countdown has begun: during the next few days, the cyclone will move to the east until Friday impacts with the Azores. Just after, the unknowns begin. Of those unknowns is what the weather information has been living in recent days. But now they begin to clear and, in fact, Aemet just said publicly That is on alert. And it is because, although as we said yesterday it is already clear that the Azores will take the worst part, the truth is that the scenarios in which the storm arrives at the peninsula are increasingly probable. Where is Gabrielle right now? Let’s start here. According to the latest notice of the National Hurricane Center in MiamiGabrielle is 2950 kilometers from the Azores. With sustained winds above the 220 km/h, the eye of the hurricane moves about 20 kilometers per hour to the northwest. And then? After passing through the Azores, Gabrielle “will stop being a hurricane.” Will suffer an extroatropical transition. That is to say “its intense wind field ceases to be located, exorbitant, circular, symmetrical and becomes expanding, becoming asymmetric and losing intensity.” That means that the Peninsula will approach the weekend as storm (something relatively common in autumn), but we do not know how, or when, or where exactly that transition will take place. What does all this mean? Well, right now, the most likely scenarios already give a discounted that Gabrielle He will approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” And he will catch us almost by surprise. Because, although from Monday to Wednesday there will be a fresh atmosphere with showers, from Thursday we will enjoy a warm and stable atmosphere. It will be The summer of San MigueLy will be short (maybe very short). Just after: it is possible that the bad sea, the rains and the strong winds make an appearance in the west peninsular. Image | HNC In Xataka | The largest Hurricane of the Atlantic progresses slowly 16 kilometers per hour. The problem is your address: Spain

After reviewing the 50 most likely scenarios, this is what we can expect from Hurricane Gabrielle Camino de Europa

Hurricane Gabrielle advances through the central Atlantic at 16 kilometers per hour, feeding on warm waters, growing little by little, gaining speed. But none of that is especially important on this side of the ocean. It only matters one thing: that it is turning right in our direction. A changing scenario. Yesterday, the 50 most likely scenarios made it clear that the hurricane He was going to approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” That is, a meteorologically very complicated event right off the coast of the Peninsula. In fact, like The meteorologist González Alemán pointed outThere were “scenarios where it would not suffer an extroatropical transition, but would approach without losing its tropical cyclone.” We had to pay attention to the Atlantic. Today those scenarios are converging progressively and everything seems to indicate that the worst part will take the Azores. And, with “worse part” I am not being metaphorical. “Some of the possible scenarios carry pressure centers even below 970 HPA”; that is to say, A very deep storm (and wild). The problem is that there are still six days left. And that, indeed, is a lot. To get an idea, according to the National Hurricane Center, it is most likely that Gabrielle loses his hurricane category between 12 and 24 hours before reaching the Portuguese archipelago. We already knew that Spain, like reminds us in Meteovigoit is difficult for him to llgue with the intensity of a hurricane because there are several “shields” that protect us (essentially deep water and polar jet). However, that does not mean that the impact of a storm of this type cannot be very intense. How of “intense”? That will be the question that we have alert for the rest of the week. If we have to listen to the current trend, it does not seem that the Peninsula will receive a direct impact. However, as I said, everything is very open. And in a season like this that is to say a lot. Because, although experts anticipated that the season was going to be relatively active, the truth is that the Atlantic Hurricanes factory has been surprisingly calm. Is there yet time to change this? Without a doubt, but there is less time left. Image | In Xataka | Without hurricanes in sight in the Atlantic: experts warn that it is not convenient to trust the final stretch

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