To no one’s surprise, the fanciful tunnel that aspires to join the Strait of Gibraltar under the sea will not be ready by 20230

The idea of ​​connecting Europe and Africa with a direct channel that allows us to do without ships and planes is so attractive, so damn sexy, that it takes more than a century warming the imagination of engineers. The same time they have been seeing the Strait of Gibraltar as the ideal point for a Spain-Morocco tunnel. After decades of idling, in recent years the project seemed gain momentumat least as far as the political sphere and the public interest. A few months ago even transcended that one of the leading companies in tunnel boring machines sees the infrastructure as technically viable. He hype around the tunnel it grew so much (and so strong) that there were those who trusted that the 2030 Soccer World Cupcelebrated mainly in Spain, Morocco and Portugal, it would serve you of ultimate lever. They were even read headlines that suggested that it would be executed with a view to 2030. To no one’s surprise, everything indicates that it won’t be like that. Strait Slopes. About a century ago, around 1929engineer Fernando Gallego Herrera a question was asked: Why not ‘suture’ the gap between Europe and Africa with an underwater tunnel in the Strait of Gibraltar? He was not the first to consider the issue, but he did so with a seriousness, a degree of technical level and a vocation, which gave visibility to the approach. Since then the idea of ​​creating a megastructure that allows Spain and Morocco to ‘touch each other’ has continued with comings and goings on the table. And not only on a theoretical level. The idea of ​​establishing a “fixed link” between Spain and Morocco even led to the creation of two entities: SECEGSAon the Spanish side, and the Societé Nationale d’Etudes du Detroit (SNED) on the Moroccan side. In recent years, the project has also attracted headlines that echoed the degree of political commitmentthe investment in studieshis time horizon and even his technical feasibilitya key aspect considering that we are talking about a structure of several dozens of kilometers in a difficult geological area. A small (big) step. In 2024 the project gave one step forwarde that (although very initial) was revealing. At the request of SECGSA, INECO commissioned a study for the “cross-strait fixed link project”. Its objective was basically to analyze “the feasibility” of excavations in the area, especially in the most critical points, such as the Camarinal Threshold that separates the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. The task fell to a famous company in the sector: Herrenknechta leading German firm in the world of tunnel boring machines related, among other works, to the Brenner Tunnel or that of Saint Gotthard. Viable yes, although not cheap. The conclusions of their analysis have been known in recent months. First in October Populi Voice revealed that the German firm has confirmed that, although extremely complex, the Spain-Morocco pipeline would be viable from a technical point of view. The same media reported that the purpose of Spain and Portugal would be to decide in 2027 whether or not to tender an exploratory tunnel and provided a provisional calendar: just shaping the reconnaissance gallery would require between six and nine years. Regarding the cost of infrastructure, slid that the base bidding budget of the Spanish side would exceed 8.5 billion euros, a figure that includes everything from the base gallery to the tunnels, the terminal and other facilities. The sum is considerable but there is talk of diversifying its origin, including everything from community funds to formulas (concessions, fees) inspired by other megaprojects, such as the Eurotunnel wave Figueras-Perpignan line. Has there been more progress? It seems so. Although again in an initial phase still. At the end of November Populi Voice revealed again that, after the technical endorsement of Herrenknecht, SECEGSA entrusted INECO to complete the updating of the preliminary project of the structure. A deadline was even included: summer 2026. Around the same time, the Government of Spain and Morocco held a summit in Moncloa during which a memorandum was signed to “promote scientific cooperation in the study of seismicity and geodynamics in the Strait area.” In the statement released by Transport there is no mention of the tunnel, but there were those who saw in the agreement a positive nod for infrastructure. Question of deadlines. The tunnel is not only interested in its technical details and cost. Another key aspect is your calendar. Especially since already in the autumn, when the first touches of Herrenknecht’s analysis became known, slipped that the first progress of the project could arrive by 2030, the year of the Soccer World Cup in which Spain and Morocco participate as host countries. The coincidence of dates made it create expectation about how the Cup could influence the project and even if it would act as a stimulus for the subway. It was even raised if I could arrive on time. In recent days those expectations have received a jug of cold water. One more and unsurprisingIn fact. Why’s that? Because 2030 is four years away. And that is a ridiculously short time for a work that, beyond being viable on a technical and logistical level, is more than notable in complexity. First for its ambition and dimensions (more than 40 kmbetween the underwater and terrestrial section). Second because it must be developed in an area highly conditioned by its geology. Although there may be some progress towards 2030, Populi Voice mentioned in October sources close to the project that pointed to 2035-2040 as a “more realistic horizon” to see significant milestones. The idea would be to have gallery design recognition in June to put out to tender the infrastructure starting in 2027. As a reference, the construction of the Eurotunnel (50 kilometers) required some seven years (from 1988 to 19949 and Saint Gotthard (57 km) around 17. Moderating expectation. In recent weeks (and days) media like Huffington Post The reason either ACE They have echoed, citing the technical feasibility study, that the tunnel between … Read more

Yes, the Strait of Gibraltar is “about” to disappear. Within 50 million years, specifically

In recent days, we have been able to see some voices that pointed to an almost apocalyptic event in our country: the Strait of Gibraltar this “about to disappear“, making two continents come together. The image in this case is quite powerful: the Mediterranean turning into a salt lake or completely disappearing before our eyes because its water intake would be cut off. However, when geologists say ‘soon’, they don’t mean next week. The reality. This new wave of fear over this fact arises as a result of a publication in the magazine Geology which is undoubtedly fascinating. In this case, geologists have used the capacity of supercomputers and 3D geodynamic models to see that under Gibraltar there is a subduction zone that right now she is ‘asleep’ and could wake up at any moment. The study, led by João C. Duarte together with researchers from the University of Mainz, addresses one of the great debates in plate tectonics: is the Gibraltar subduction zone dead? The discovery. For years science has pointed out that the sinking of the oceanic lithosphere under the Gibraltar Arc had stopped. However, the authors have applied new computer simulation techniques with the 3D ‘gravity-driven’ model to be able to reproduce the evolution that the western Mediterranean will follow where this strait is located. This is something fundamental, since the ancient models had us quite limited, but with technology you can see the processes over millions of years. The result of what was seen is quite clear: subduction is not dead, but is in a period of ‘rest’ or ‘silence’. Although the model believes that at some point this is something that will be activated or unblocked again. The future of the Atlantic. Something that must be clear is that the oceans are not static, but rather follow what is known as the Wilson Cycle. According to this model, the Atlantic is a young ocean that is expanding right now. But like everything in this life, it is doomed to die, just as happened in the past with the Tethys ocean, which is the ancestor of the Mediterranean Sea. However, for this to occur, subduction zones need to be activated where the tectonic plate sinks under another. breaking plates. The problem is that breaking a tectonic plate to start this subduction process is mechanically very difficult. The solution proposed by this team is that this area already exists in the Mediterranean, and its effect will spread to the west, crossing the Strait and invading the Atlantic. This is something that would give something called the ‘Atlantic Ring of Fire’, analogous to the famous Pacific beltcharacterized by volcanoes and earthquakes. When will this occur? This is where the important nuance comes in that must be taken into account when we talk about something in geology happening ‘soon’. According to this simulation, the current phase of inactivity will last for some time yet. But not a few days, but the propagation of subduction towards the Atlantic will gain traction in 20 million years and the development of the new subduction system can be delayed up to 50 million years. Saying that the Strait is “about to disappear” based on this study is like saying that the Sun is about to go out because it has “only” fuel left. 5 billion years. It is true on the scale of the universe, but irrelevant to our daily lives. Why it is important. Beyond the time it will take for this to occur, this model demonstrates how subduction zones can migrate from dying oceans like the Mediterranean to expanding oceans like the Atlantic, helping us understand how the Earth has been shaped throughout its history. Images | Malcolm Ketteridge In Xataka | Cádiz has decided to prepare for something that has happened five times in 7,000 years: its destructive potential justifies it

Gibraltar airport was born as a British military bastion. Now Spain has imposed a veto that will be very expensive

Since its construction during the Second World War on the narrow strip that separates the Rock from the isthmus, the Gibraltar airport It has been much more than a landing strip: an RAF military enclave, a nerve center for British logistics in the Mediterranean and, at the same time, a constant source of diplomatic friction with Spain. Today, and after Brexit, that old tension resurfaces in new forms. More restrictions. The United Kingdom has confirmed that the restrictions imposed by Spain on the overflight of British military aircraft remain in force, affecting flights arriving or departing from the Royal Air Force (RAF) air base in Gibraltar. Despite this, the British Ministry of Defense insists that the measure has no operational impact and that the base continues to operate as a sovereign military airfield under full authority of the United Kingdom. So he reiterated it Under Secretary of State for the Armed Forces, Alistair Carns, in response to a series of parliamentary questions posed by Liberal Democrat MP Helen Maguire, who asked for clarification on the logistical and financial consequences of this situation. Carns claimed that RAF aircraft simply They trace alternative routes to avoid Spanish territorial airspace, in accordance with the restrictions imposed by Madrid, and that Gibraltar’s operational capacity has not been compromised. The big doubt. Nevertheless, admitted that no formal study has been carried out on the economic costs derived from diverting flights through other international air information regions, despite the increase in fuel costs and flight time that this implies. The dimension of the blockade. The debate about the military overflights reflects a historical conflict between London and Madrid that has survived all diplomatic stages, from the Cold War to Brexit. Spain, relying on international law and its claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar, maintains that all British military activity in the area must comply with its air traffic rules. For the Spanish Government, overflight restrictions are not a sanction, but a legitimate expression of its jurisdiction over the airspace it considers its own. An RAF Hawk at the airport What do the English say? From the British perspective, however, these limitations are a inheritance of tensions that surround the sovereignty of the Rock and a technical rather than political obstacle. In the Westminster Parliament, the issue continues to be a recurring theme, periodically reactivated by particularly combative deputies who see every Spanish gesture as a threat to the British integrity of the enclave. To them, successive governments of the United Kingdom have always responded in the same way: reaffirming their full sovereignty over Gibraltar and the right of its inhabitants to self-determination, without opening any loophole for territorial negotiations with Spain. A Lockheed Hudson of No. 233 Squadron RAF lands at Gibraltar in August 1942 Gibraltar after Brexit. Brexit introduced a new framework of relations that fully affected Gibraltar’s position. After months of negotiationSpain, the United Kingdom and the European Commission reached an agreement that established a joint system customs and border control. Under this pact, Spain will assume controls on the European side at the Peñón port and airport, which will allow more fluid transit to destinations within the European Union. However, the military issue was left out of those understandings. The Liberal Democrat Helen Maguire brought this sensitive point back to the table by asking whether the impact of restrictions Spanish reports on the operations and costs of the British Ministry of Defence. Carns’ response was blunt: air limitations continue, aircraft avoid Spanish space and the base maintains its sovereign status. But, as we said before, the absence of an official calculation on additional spending reflects political will to publicly minimize any consequences derived from the dispute, preserving the narrative of autonomy and absolute control over Gibraltar. Strategic impact. Although London maintains that the Spanish veto does not interfere In its operational freedom, the diversion of military routes involves a considerable logistical effort. Instead of crossing the Iberian Peninsula, aircraft must border it by the Atlanticprolonging the journeys from the British Isles to Gibraltar and complicating supply at a point of strategic value for British operations in the Mediterranean and North Africa. The RAF base in Gibraltar, next to the port used by the Royal Navy, constitutes an essential axis for surveillance, supply and military transit missions to Africa and the Middle East. The United Kingdom has not revealed figures on the economic impact of the diversions, but parliamentary sources acknowledge that fuel and planning costs are inevitable, especially in rapid deployment exercises or emergencies. Even so, the Ministry of Defense avoid recognizing officially these damages, aware that admitting them would imply granting Spain a political advantage in a matter where each diplomatic gesture has symbolic weight. A geopolitical symbol. If you also want, the conflict over Gibraltar’s airspace condenses centuries of friction between both nations and is projected as a microdemonstration of the balance of power in the Mediterranean. A pesar de los acuerdos pos-Brexit y de la cooperación en materia fronteriza y económica, la defensa del Peñón continúa siendo un terreno de maximum political sensitivity. The RAF base and the port of Gibraltar are more than simple military infrastructure: they represent the last vestige of British projection in southern Europe, a symbolic platform of sovereignty in disputed territory. The Spanish restrictions They do not prevent the operation of that presence, but they require a constant effort of logistical adaptation and a careful diplomatic balance. In this context, the United Kingdom maintains its usual line: denying any operational impact and reaffirming that Gibraltar continues to be, both in the air and on land, an unbreakable piece of its strategic identity. Image | Dicklyon, Harry Mitchell In Xataka | The Strait of Gibraltar was very different eight million years ago. So different that there were two In Xataka | In World War II, Hitler gave Spain the keys to Gibraltar. He did not have what Franco demanded in return

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