This year’s El Gordo is not in the Lottery. There are Christmas baskets that offer fortunes and the prize does not go through the treasury

The Christmas basket, today converted into an almost mythological object of the work calendar and Spanish commercialwas not born as an innocent gesture or as a marketing strategy, but as a very ancient expression of power, hierarchy and dependence. If the Romans raised their heads today they would not believe it: their sportula is no longer a simple basket, it is something much bigger than the Christmas “Gordo” himself. Literally, From Rome to the draw of the 21st century. In imperial Rome, during the Saturnalia in December, patrons gave their clients the sportula: a wicker basket with quality food (figs, bay leaves, select products) that was offered during the morning greetingthe morning ritual in which the protected came to pay respect to the patron. That basket It wasn’t just food.: It was a tangible reminder of who protected whom and how subsistence was articulated around personal relationships of fidelity. Centuries later, this logic reappeared in other forms in the Anglo-Saxon tradition of Boxing Daywhen the wealthy classes distributed boxes with gifts to their domestic servants, and also in the medieval ecclesiastical sphere, where the “Christmas boxes” functioned as donations to the most disadvantaged. The central idea was always the same: close the year with a material gesture that strengthened social, work or moral ties. The Spanish basket. In Spain, the Christmas basket began to consolidate late 19th century in public organizations and administrations, but it was not until the 1950s when it became widespread as a recognizable business gift, first in the public sector and later in the private sector. Those baskets, wicker and almost Roman in appearance, combined Christmas sweets, sausages, cheeses and bottles of wine or cava, and were usually delivered along with the extra pay. They were not a luxury, but yes a symbol: the worker brought home something that was opened as a family and consumed on key dates, integrating the world of work into the domestic ritual of Christmas. As the decades passed, the lot stopped being an accessory and became an identifying gesture of the company, an object that spoke of both the budget and the corporate culture. From ham to musical. The social and labor evolution of the country has been pushing the basket to transform without extinction. Generational diversity, changes in consumption habits and new food sensitivities have made the unique model stop working. Today, traditional baskets coexist with digital catalogs where employees choose between technological products, cultural experiences or gourmet gifts. The whole ham gives ground to slicing for economic, practical and demographic reasons, and high-proof beverages are reduced. Vegan, gluten-free or alcohol-free batches appear, and more care is taken with design, sustainability and the continent. However, even those driving the change recognize that a “romanticism” that is difficult to replace persists: the experience of coming home with a box, opening it as a family, and associating that moment with the recognition of the work done during the year. An industry that lives on a month. Behind this apparently simple gesture there is a highly specialized economic sector that concentrates a good part of your billing in just three months. Companies that think about baskets all year round, that negotiate with suppliers, adjust prices in response to inflation of ham, cocoa or oil, and that have survived crises like that of 2008 by becoming professional and gaining scale. Large stores and wholesale distributors move hundreds of thousands of lots each campaignfrom modest baskets of less than 10 euros to premium proposals that exceed 1,000. At the same time, the basket has also become a delicate tax area: it is a remuneration in kind when the company delivers it, a capital increase when it is won in a raffle, and a detail that, depending on its value, may require taxation. That fiscal component, paradoxically, has driven some of the most striking innovations. Promotional image of the “basket” of El Paisano When the basket surpasses the Gordo. The definitive leap from the symbolic to the spectacular comes when the basket stops being a set of foods and becomes a great vital draw. The best-known case this year is that of the grill The Countrymanin the province of Seville, which since 2008 has been expanding its “Great Basket of Kings” until reaching a value in 2025 close to 850,000 eurosa figure that doubles the net prize of one tenth of the Gordo de Navidad. High-end cars, motorhomes, motorcycles, an apartment on the coast, technology, gold bars and food coexist in a single prize that, in addition, is awarded with taxes and expenses assumed by the organizer. For ten euros of participation, the winner can wake up with a completely different material life. Here the basket stops being a metaphor and becomes an economic, media and social event. The bizarre thing is also Christmas. But if anything shows how far this tradition has come, it is its ability to embrace the unusual without complexes. In Ourense, a funeral home decided to put together its Christmas basket inside a coffin displayed in the window. The content, valued at 2,300 eurosincludes everything from technology and appliances to ham and sweets, and the coffin itself can be carried “if the whim is too much.” Far from being a gratuitous provocation, the raffle has a solidarity purpose and seeks to energize the life of the neighborhood. The scene well summarizes the contemporary spirit of the basket: an object that no longer fears excess, uncomfortable humor or exaggeration, because its main function is to attract attention, generate community and close the year with a story to tell. Tradition that was never innocent. As we see, since the sportula roman to the basket that is raffled in a coffin or the one that is worth more than the Fat Man without going through the Treasurythe Christmas basket has changed in form, content and scale, but not in profound meaning. Deep down it is still a closing ritual, a material transfer loaded with social meaning, or a way of saying “you … Read more

there is more money in less time and too many eggs in few baskets

The expectation and unbridled optimism about the AI ​​revolution is giving way to a stage of nervous laughter. The question It is no longer whether there is an AI bubblebut when it will explode and what impact that explosion will have. It is inevitable to compare this situation with the one we experienced with the rise of the internet and the dotcom bubble, but this is even worse. Dog years, mouse years. Vinton Cerf, one of the fathers of the internet, spoke in 1999 how “a year in the internet business was like a dog year, that is, seven years in the life of a normal person.” Everything was going very fast then, but now it is spoken of “mouse year”: each of them would be equivalent to about 35 human years. In AI everything certainly goes much faster, and that is very, very dangerous. Stock market crashes don’t help. Until a month ago, the extraordinary optimism that existed in this market had caused the big technology companies to continue growing on the stock market while the rest of the economy barely did. NVIDIA has been the best example of this, but in the last month a good handful of technology stocks have fallen. NVIDIA itself, (-4%), Microsoft (-10%), Meta (-20%), Amazon (-2%), Broadcom (-4%), Oracle (-30%), AMD (-20%), Intel (-10%). Only Google (+15%) and Apple (+3%) seem to resist this downward trend. The bubble is huge. The last estimates for capital expenditures (capex) added to the investments of venture capital already exceeds 600,000 million dollars by 2025, and the consulting firm Gartner indicated that according to its data in 2025, spending related to AI will amount to 1.5 trillion dollarswhen in 2024 it was 988,000 million. By 2026, it is estimated that it will exceed two trillion dollars. And it has grown much faster. As explains Analyst Fred Vogelstein, that spending “is happening in a fraction of the time. The internet bubble inflated for 4.6 years before bursting. The AI ​​bubble has inflated in two-thirds of that time.” The numbers continue to grow without stopping, they get bigger and they start to make no sense. And when they don’t make sense, they probably don’t really make sense. Too much concentration. There are differences between this bubble and the dotcom bubble. For example, much of the gigantic investment in data centers comes from technology companies themselves, and not so much from venture capital or investment firms. Even so, the concentration is enormous: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, NVIDIA, Oracle and Apple represent approximately a third of the critical S&P 500 market, which was already aiming for it years ago, even before everyone started talking about AI. We have already seen this year how if technology companies fellthe economy suffered noticeably. This is not an investment, it is a bet. Companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta or Amazon are talking about projected capital expenditures (capex) of $70 billion to $100 billion in data centers. These companies are risking everything on AIwhen at the moment there is no reasonable justification to do so because the uncertainty is total. The best way to understand that philosophy is to remember what Mark Zuckerberg said about his investment in AI: “We’re going to invest aggressively. Even if we lost a couple hundred billion dollars it would be a bummer, but it’s better than being left behind in the race for superintelligence.” Or what is the same: if you don’t risk, you don’t win. OpenAI, bubble paradigm. If there is a company that represents the AI ​​madness, it is OpenAI. This valued at 500 billion dollarsbut the company itself estimates that until 2029 you will not start earning money. It is estimated that its “cash burn” in 2025 will be $8 billion, and that in 2026 that figure will be $17 billion. It’s growing in revenue, yeahbut not at a sustainable pace at the moment. The accounts don’t come out, but the important thing for Sam Altman (and his investors) is that theoretically they will end up coming out. Or so they say. Source: Bloomberg. Circular financing. We are experiencing another warning sign with the recent circular financing agreements between big companies technological. In these alliances OpenAI and NVIDIA (among others) are becoming something like banks and investors that guarantee the demand for their products. This means that these companies will probably emerge stronger, but it also increases the systemic risk of this bubble burst. We are seeing it with Oracle, which issued $18 billion in bonds and has raised its total debt above $100 billion. Others are in a compromising situation also. Crazy reviews. And we have more disturbing warnings, of course. Among them, those that affect the multimillion-dollar investments and valuations that AI startups are receiving. Reflection AI, the company founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, has raised 2000 million dollars in one round, while Safe SuperIntelligence, the startup created by Ilya Sutskever, is valued at 32 billion dollars without having any public product. It is estimated that there are 498 AI unicornsand it does not seem that the investment fever has stopped, as demonstrated by the interest in Yann LeCun’s imminent startup. Altman, Nadella and Pichai warn. Even the technological leaders They recognize that there are signs of a technological bubblealthough they do it with nuances. Pichai talked about observing “elements of irrationality”, and in that same vein they were Satya Nadella (Microsoft) or Sam Altman (OpenAI). Meanwhile, Robin Li, CEO of Baidu, explained months ago that we are facing a bubble that will make only 1% of companies survive. China. This excessive spending has also been helped by the rise of China in this area. The Asian giant has demonstrated its ability to develop open models extraordinary. The DeepSeek effect It caused companies in the US to add even more fuel (money) to the fire while China takes a position more conservative. Mastering AI is a major national security concern and that ties assessments to political and tariff unpredictability. Source: Financial Review … Read more

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