asteroid

In 2024 we feared that the asteroid YR4 would impact the Earth. Now NASA believes the Moon is threatened

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For a few weeks at the beginning of 2025, the name 2024 YR4 became an absolute protagonist among the main institutions around the planet. It was no wonder, since this object, with an estimated size between 40 and 60 metersreached the level 3 on the Torino scalea milestone that we have not seen for a long time and that implies a probability of collision greater than 1% with the capacity to produce devastating local damage. We are saved. After this fear, science has managed to reach the conclusion that the Earth is safe now. However, the story of 2024 YR4 is not over, since the latest models suggest that, although it will avoid us, there is a non-negligible probability that it will end up crashing into the Moon. How we knew. Initially, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) held his breath in early 2025. The first observations showed a worrying scenario for the year 2032 with this possible impact, but the moment more attention began to be paid to this object it was seen that it was not going to end up on Earth. The key to being able to breathe a little calmer again lies in the ‘shoulders’ of the James Webb which began making observations in May 2025. The space telescope made it possible to refine the asteroid’s orbit with a 20% precision improvement, confirming that there is no risk of impact against our planetnor an orbital alteration of the Moon that could affect us secondarily. But by closing a door, the JWST opened a fascinating and destructive window: the probability that 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon has risen from 3.8% to 4.3%. The lunar judgment. According to studies recently published on arXiv, the key date is December 22, 2032. That day is where there is about a 1 in 23 chance that we will see a violent spectacle on the lunar surface with an impact that would release an energy of 6.5 megatons of TNT. This is something very relevant, since this great energy would generate a crater approximately one kilometer in diameter and the ejection of 100 million kilos of lunar debris with a cloud of material equivalent to the weight of about 20,000 elephants. From Earth. Logically, this impact, although it does not occur on the planet, the truth is that it will have important consequences and not exactly physical ones, but rather a visual phenomenon. The debris that will be ejected from the Moon could enter the Earth’s atmosphere some time later, generating an unprecedented meteor shower caused by a secondary impact. The use of technology. Over time, the European Space Agency has also validated this data, placing the size of the object more specifically between 53 and 67 meters and confirming the 4% probability of having an impact on the moon. Although logically we also have a 96% chance that it will completely pass from the Moon. But this asteroid has had a very positive point: it has vindicated the need to improve space detection tools. And right now these objects are hiding in the “blind spot” of the sun’s glare, although with this one we were lucky that the ATLAS system in Chile managed to detect it. A future mission. Given this limitation that we have, the ESA has seen it necessary to activate the NEOMIR missionsince if it had already been active, it would have detected the asteroid a month earlier, offering vital reaction time if the threat had been against the Earth and not against the Moon. And now what. For now, we have to wait. The asteroid has moved away in this case and will not be in an optimal position to make an observation again until 2028. It will be then that astronomers will be able to refine this 4.3% probability and tell us definitively whether we will spend Christmas 2032 looking at the Moon to see how a new crater forms live. Images | Mike Petrucci NASA Hubble Space Telescope In Xataka | Japan has lost a five-ton satellite in the most unusual way imaginable: “it fell” during launch

In 2024 an asteroid loaded with precious metals psó touching us. The goal is now to hunt the next one with a giant bag

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A year ago, astronomers saw how an asteroid entered the orbit of our planet and accompanied us for almost two months. This “mini-luna” baptized as 2024 PT5 was a warning sign for an industry that never ends up detachment: space mining. The passage of the rock full of rare metals lit the fuse of a new race to not let the next one. The new objective of space mining. The idea that asteroids are floating treasures is not new. According to NASA’s calculationsthe metals contained in the asteroid belt could be equivalent to 100 million dollars for each person on Earth. The problem has always been the same: the prohibitive cost of reaching them. But this type of “mini-lunas” like 2024 PT5, that we are able to detect with current technologythe rules of the game change when approaching us, becoming much more affordable objectives. The Plan: Not Atrices, capture. Landing in an asteroid is a logistics nightmare. They turn at high speed, do not have a significant seriousness that maintains an anchored ship and are covered with a powder that would stuck any machinery. Therefore, the new strategy is not to perch on them, but to capture them in full flight. This is where concepts that seem taken from a science fiction film come into play. Companies like the Tethers Unlimited disappeared They worked on satellite designs capable of launching a gigantic network to catch an asteroid and tow it to a stable orbit. The company failed, but its idea prevails: stop the rotation of asteroids to process them. NASA to hunt asteroids. One of the companies that leads this race was founded by a veteran of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of La NASA, Joel Sercel. The plan of Transaster It is a three -phase technological deployment: Detect: its Sutter telescope system has been designed to find small, dark and fast objects, such as asteroids close to the earth that until now went unnoticed. Capture: His proposal is called Capture Bag, and is a kind of giant inflatable bag designed to completely wrap the asteroid. Process: Once trapped, they would use a technology called optical mining. It consists of using concentrated sunlight with a kind of magnifying glass on an industrial scale to heat the asteroid. This allows you to extract water (in the form of ice) and separate precious metals such as platinum, cobalt or nickel. Precious metals … and precious water. Although metals are the fat prize, the most valuable short -term resource is water. As Joel Serce explains In an interview for Caltechwater is the “oil” of the solar system. It can be broken down into hydrogen and oxygen to create rocket fuel. Extract water from an asteroid and store it in orbit would create the first “space gas stations”. Being quantifies it: 100 tons of water extracted from an asteroid the size of a house, enough to fill a pool, they would have an approximate value of 1,000 million dollars in space. Simply because of the cost that would mean throwing so much water from the earth. To move these loads, Transastra is developing a fleet of tugs called worker bee whose engines can use that water as propellant. Waiting for the next mini-luna. The passage of 2024 PT5 was a lost opportunity. “If we had had our systems in operation, we could have gone for it,” he confessed to being. The industry was not ready, but the starting gun has already sounded. The next time a cosmic treasure approaches the earth, there may be giant networks or bags waiting for it. The 21st century gold fever does not look underground, but towards the stars. Image | NASA, JPL In Xataka | The Earth has lost its miniluna, but posed for a photo before leaving (and promised to return soon)

Two years ago, an asteroid exploded over France with unusual violence. What saved the French was their size

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February 13, 2023. It was 4:59 in the morning when a violent explosion illuminated the skies of Normandynorth of France. It was not a ray, nor a missile. It was the end of a travel of millions of kilometers for a small asteroid called 2023 Cx1. Seven hours of notice. The 650 -kilogram rock had just a meter in diameter, so it had been detected only seven hours before impact. But the most disturbing thing was not his surprise arrival, but his behavior when entering the earth’s atmosphere. An exhaustive analysis published two and a half years later in Nature Astronomy He has revealed that, if the asteroid had been larger, the consequences of his extraordinary explosion could have been devastating. A high -risk meteor. Most meteorites are fragmenting as they descend through the atmosphere, but 2023 CX1 endured intact until it reached a distance to the ground of only 28 kilometers. At that point, the pressure made it explode like a pump. After traveling through space for about 30 million years, the asteroid released 98% of all its kinetic energy in a second fraction. And in a very concentrated region of the atmosphere, when it reached a dynamic pressure of 4 megapascal. It does not compare with Cheliábinsk. The 2023 CX1 behavior was radically different from that of the car whose explosion of 500 kilotons He broke windows and caused hundreds of injured in Russia in 2013. The one in France generated a spherical shock wave instead of cylindrical, concentrating much more energy and greatly increasing the area of ​​soil affected by overpressure. According to researchers, this type of abrupt fragmentation could cause much more damage than the progressive fragmentations of similar size bodies. The French were lucky that it was so small. More firewood for planetary defense. The analysis was based on an unprecedented number of observations after mobilizing the scientific and citizen community in those seven hours of margin. The prediction of the fall by ESA and NASA had a margin of error of less than 20 meters between the planned and observed trajectory, which in turn facilitated the recovery of more than one hundred fragments of the meteorite in the commune of Saint-Pierre-Le Viger. According to the CSICwhich participated in the investigation, this event confirms the existence of a new population of asteroids, type L chondrites, capable of these violent explosions. “These asteroids must be taken into account in the Planetary Defense Strategiessince they represent a higher risk for populated areas, “says Auriane Egal, first author of the study. With what we know today, perhaps the authorities activate evacuation plans the next time an asteroid of this type threatens us. Provided that detection systems do not fail, and detect the threat in time. Image | THAT In Xataka | Tunguska: the explosion of 12 megatones that reminds us that space is full of wonders, but also of horrors

His next mission for this year is to divert an asteroid

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We may not finally need Bruce Willis, but Armageddon It is no longer a movie as unlikely as it seemed. After the United States managed to divert an asteroid for the first time in history, China prepares to launch its own planetary defense mission this year. Of course, with something that NASA did not have: a second probe to record everything live. A little context. In 2013, NASA and the European Space Agency created the AIDA program to demonstrate the asteroid deviation close to Earth. He NASA Dart Kinetic Impactor It would crash at high speed over a small asteroid called Dimorfo, and the AIM orbiter developed by that would record the event live to measure the effects of impact. ESA ended up abandoning the development of AIM due to the lack of financial support of the Member States. But NASA continued with the development of Dart and, on September 26, 2022, the asteroid successfully diverted, with a small Italian Cubesat (Lyciacube) as the only witness of the feat. The hera mission of ESA, AIM spiritual successor, is traveling to Dimorfo to take data From his arrival in December 2026, four years after the impact. Now it’s China. Although NASA-that collaboration did not materialize as conceived, China has its own version of AIDA. For now it is known as “experimental test of the asteroid defense system close to Earth”, but is very close to becoming a reality (probably with a less aseptic name). Wu Weiren, designer of some of the most important missions of the Chinese space program, commented at a conference in Heféi that the launch is scheduled as this year aboard a CZ-3B rocket. If it succeeds, the mission will make China the second country in the world deliberately against an asteroid to modify its orbit. And what is better: with a second probe loaded with sensors to record the live impact. Two ships instead of one. Unlike NASA’s mission, which sent a single Kamikaze probe with the Italian Cubesat inside, China’s plan contemplates the launch of two ships: an impactor and an observer that will make an exhaustive recognition. As for the asteroid, The chosen one is 2020 pn1located in an orbit of horseshoe to dozens of millions of kilometers from the earth. As details Wu Weirenthe observer will come first to map and obtain precise physical data. Shortly after, the impact ship will collide at high speed against the asteroid under the watchful eye of the observer, in addition to a combined network of telescopes on land and space. The objective is to accurately measure changes in orbit, morphology and material expelled by the clash of the ship, to evaluate the effectiveness of the impact. The goal is even more modest than that of Dart: produce an orbital deviation of between 3 and 5 centimeters. More difficult than it seems. The ship will have to travel for months, adjusting its course to hit an object of just a few hundred meters in diameter, with a minimum margin of error. To which you have to add uncertainty about the composition of the asteroid: it is not the same to collide with a solid rock than against an amalgam of loose rubble. The challenge is immense. “How to hit a fly from tens of millions of kilometers away”, PUBLISH THE GLOBAL Times. But NASA showed that it is possible, and now China has the opportunity to confirm that humanity is able to defend itself from one of the greatest existential threats faced by the Earth: the impact of a nearby object. The first test of a long -term plan. This mission is just the first piece of an ambitious puzzle with which China plans to establish a complete detection and defense system against asteroids. The country already has a land surveillance network, which includes the telescope of the Purple Mountain Observatory and the “China Compound Eye” project, a set of radars capable of obtaining high -precision images of asteroids to millions of kilometers. The plan is to complement this terrestrial network with a fleet of observation satellites in space and have a catalog of options to act as a threat is detected. It is not science fiction, but a real and urgent plan. In early 2025, in the midst of the growing concern for asteroid 2024 YR4, China opened a recruitment process In search of experts in astrophysics and international cooperation to create their own planetary defense force. Space muscle demonstration. This new mission comes at a time when China’s space program advances at a dizzying pace in contrast to NASA’s scientific cuts. China’s experience in handling deep space is growing, and has already achieved milestones that the United States does not possess, such as bringing samples of the hidden face of the moon. In May of this year, China also launched the Tianwen-2 probe, which is directed to the quasi-satellite Kamo’oalewa to collect the first samples of this peculiar object, A probable fragment of our moon. The samples would arrive to the Earth in 2027. Subsequently, the ship will continue its trip to a cometr of the main belt, in the farthest mission ever undertaken by the country. The next step: bring the first samples of Mars with Tianwen-3, something that seems to China will also get Before the United States and Europe. Image | THAT In Xataka | We already know that Asteroid YR4 will not collide with the earth. The probability of impact with the moon, on the other hand, has risen to 4%

There is a 2% probability that the asteroid impact the earth, but we will not know how much it measures until the webb observes it

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He Asteroid 2024 YR4 He has aroused unusual interest since his discovery on December 27. Although the probability of impact with the earth remains very low, has risen from 1 to 2% As new observations are obtained. However, astronomers are having difficulty measuring their size and have decided to resort to the most powerful space telescope in history to get out of doubt. There is a problem in how an asteroid is measured. Until now, the size estimates of 2024 YR4 have oscillated between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, a too wide range to assess the danger that would represent an eventual impact with our planet. This lack of precision has a reason and is that The size of the asteroid is calculated from the reflected visible lighta method that depends on the reflectivity of its surface. 2024 YR4 could be an object of 40 meters very reflective or an object of 90 meters very dark. As well as any intermediate option. The James Webb space telescope to the rescue. Unlike other observatories, The 10,000 million dollar telescopeoperated by NASA, ESA and the Canadian space agency, does not observe the visible spectrum, but the infrared spectrum, and with an unprecedented sensitivity. Astronomers will allocate hours of webb use to analyze the infrared light emitted by the asteroid to obtain a more precise measurement of its size and temperature. With luck, it will allow them to discern whether 2024 YR4 is at the lower or upper end of the estimated range, crucial information to better evaluate the consequences of their unlikely but possible impact. Two rounds of observation are planned. Space agencies have foreseen Two rounds of crucial observations With the Webb Telescope. The first will take place in early March, when the asteroid is at its point of greatest brightness and visibility for the telescope. The second round, scheduled for May, will allow scientists to study how the object temperature varies as it moves away from the sun, in addition to continuing to obtain data on its trajectory when the object has ceased to be visible by terrestrial telescopes. Why fluctuate the probability of impact. The 2% estimate is the most up -to -date ES has provided so far (NASA publishes a 2.1% estimate). The figure varies constantly because the calculations have been incorporating new observations that reduce the uncertainty of their trajectory. These fluctuations are, in fact, typical behavior in the estimation of the impact risk of newly discovered objects. NASA planetary defense equipment and ESA are based on orbital dynamic systems (such as Scout, Sentry, Meerkat and Aegis) that generate multiple possible trajectories for the asteroid. As less likely orbits are discarded, targeting on Earth may increase the fraction of possible impacts, although, over time, additional observations allow the threat to definitively discard. If this were not the case with 2024 YR4, we would be talking about a meteorite that could fall in countries as populated as Colombia, Nigeria or India on January 22, 2032. Then we would start talking about a mission to divert it, a task in the that We already have some practice. Image | Two of the 18 mirrors of the Webb Telescope (NASA/C. GUNN) In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

The probability that the asteroid falls on Earth has risen to 2.3%. Even the Webb Telescope is monitoring it

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The last NASA calculations They place the probability that the asteroid 2024 YR4 impact with the land by 2.3%, a figure that the European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed with Its own 2.27% estimate. For those who have lost their account, in just one week of observations We have gone from 1 between 83 possibilities that the asteroid crosses the planet Earth to 1 between 43. The options are still low, but they are high enough for the offices of NASA planetary defense and that They have intensified their monitoring efforts. To the James Webb space telescope, 10,000 million dollars, will be monitoring The little asteroid. 2024 YR4 is not much, but with A diameter of between 40 and 90 meterscould destroy an entire city if it survived the reentry and impact an urban area. When? On January 22, 2032. Where? At some point in the strip that extends from the East of the Pacific Ocean to northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and the south of Asia. It should be noted that These impact estimates They are calculated taking as reference the quotient between the diameter of the earth and the width of the area of ​​uncertainty of the asteroid, generated from simulations. The problem: 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth In an elliptical trajectorywhich hinders its detection with conventional instruments. In a few weeks it will have become so faint that even professional four -meter telescopes have trouble capturing it. As of April, it will be necessary to resort to the Webb or the Vary Large Telescope of the Austral European Observatory to continue watching it until the object reappears In June 2028. The monitoring of the trajectory of an asteroid is a dynamic process that surely gives us a roller coaster of emotions. As more observations from the asteroid and its trajectory have, the probability of impact could increase again and then progressively reduce until reaching zeroconfirming the main hypothesis: that the asteroid will pass by instead of colliding with the earth. If not, the good news is that humanity has experience in asteroid diversion. In 2022, NASA’s dart mission He showed that it is possible to alter the trajectory of a spatial object through a kinetic impact. This historical achievement is the empirical test that we have the technology and knowledge necessary to at least try to protect our planet. Meanwhile, the UN has put on alert the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG), which agreed to meet again at the end of April or early May to study possible mitigation measures in case the probability of impact is maintained or increased . Image | Daniel Bamberger In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

A study has simulated what would happen on Earth if Asteroid Bennu ends up impacting in 2182. The climate we know would not exist

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The chances of crashing an asteroid of “large” category on our planet They are, on average, 0.001%. Therefore, everything that begins to raise that figure begins to be “less” normal. Hence Let’s talk about 2024 YR4 and its 1.6%. That said, and although there are less possibilities that it will occur, due to its size, The Bennu Asteroid It would be one of the most dangerous of the solar system. How much? That is precisely what they wanted to find out in South Korea. Potentially dangerous. The Bennu Asteroid, an object close to the land of approximately 0.5 kilometers in diameter, has been identified as one of the greatest known space threats. His orbit brings him closer to our planet every six years, and although the risk of impact is extremely low (right now it is 0.037%), the possibility of colliding with the Earth on September 24, 2182 has led the scientific community to the scientific community analyze in depth its possible effects. An unprecedented recent study, Posted in Science Advances By researchers at the IBS Institute of Climate Physics of the National University of Pusan ​​in South Korea, it has modeled for the first time the climatic and ecological consequences of an impact of a medium -sized asteroid such as Bennu. The results, of course, are not the best. The legacy of an ancient asteroid. Scientists believe that Bennu detached himself from a larger asteroid, rich in carbon, between 700 million and two billion years ago, progressively approaching the Earth’s orbit. Its composition is of great scientific interest for a simple and fascinating reason: contains key elements for lifewhat motivated NASA’s Osiris-Rex mission to explore it in 2020 and bring samples to Earth in 2023. However, and beyond its scientific value, Bennu represents a real risk that, although unlikely, cannot be ignored. Impact simulation. As explained in the study, South Korean researchers designed Detailed models to analyze how that possible impact of Bennu would affect climate, biodiversity and food security. What did they find? The most extreme scenario revealed that the impact would inject into the atmosphere between 100 and 400 million tons of dust. In other words, more graphic: it would block sunlight and plunge the planet in abrupt cooling. As for the effects, the simulation showed a certainty: They would be global and devastating. Namely: reduction in the average planet temperature in up to 4 ° C, a decrease comparable to the eras glaciers, 15% drop in rainfall, affecting the water supply and agriculture, loss of 32% of the ozone layer , exposing life on Earth to dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation, and the decrease in photosynthesis by 20-30%, both in terrestrial and sailor ecosystems, which would cause a serious crisis in food production. In short, these combined effects would trigger, according to the study, A winter of impact that would last between three and four yearscausing global famine and an ecological crisis of enormous proportions. Comparison with past events. While a Bennu impact would be devastating, the truth is that the earth has faced major threats. The best known event occurred 66 million years ago, When an asteroid of 10 kilometers in diameter hit what is now Chicxulub, Mexicocausing the extinction of dinosaurs and climatic alterations that endured thousands of years. In comparison, Bennu is significantly smaller, but large enough to cause mass destruction and deeply alter the biosphere. Not just that. Other studies suggest that medium -sized asteroids such as bennu collide with the earth approximately every 100,000 to 200,000 years, indicating that Our prehistoric ancestors could have experienced similar events with impact on human evolution and global biodiversity. Impact on the oceans. Despite the catastrophic effects, Bennu’s impact could generate an unexpected reaction on the oceans. The iron released in the stratosphere would be deposited in the sea, stimulating the proliferation of phytoplankton and zooplanktonessential organisms for the marine food chain. According to the study, while land ecosystems would take two to three years to recover, Marine life could recover in just six monthsand even exceed their levels prior to the impact due to the increase in nutrients. Planetary Defense Strategies. Despite the low impact risk, NASA and other space agencies work on the development of planetary defense technologies. For example, the Dart mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)carried out in 2022, he successfully demonstrated the human ability to divert the trajectory of an asteroid, opening the door to future mitigation strategies. And besides Bennu, there are other more immediate threats. For example and as we have explained these days, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.6% probability of impacting the Earth in 2032which reinforces the need to continue with research and develop effective prevention systems. What does seem clear to this last study is that not only reveals the vulnerability of our planet to cosmic events, but also highlights that need to advance surveillance and planetary defense technology. While the possibility that Bennu or any other asteroid impact the earth is minimal, geological history demonstrates that events of this type have shaped the evolution of life and could happen again in the future. Image | Ghost presentNASA In Xataka | All DNA bases and 14 of 20 amino acids: NASA has found molecules linked to life in Bennu samples In Xataka | Physicists have been looking for a fundamental “fifth strength.” Bennu may have approached us to find her

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

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In just a few days of observations, the probability that The 2024 YR4 asteroid Impact with the Earth has risen from 1.2 to 1.6%. Once otherwise, there is a 98.4% chance that the newly discovered object passes by long. But the risk of not doing so is high enough for the UN to activate, for the first time, its planetary security protocol. Revised calculations. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the latest land impact alert system (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until it automatically appeared on the NASA Sentry list on December 31 by its impact risk (then just above 1%) with the planet Earth. According to the Updated data which published yesterday the Coordination Center of Objects close to Earth (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency (ESA), the 2024 YR4 asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and has a 1.6% chance of impacting with the Earth on December 22, 2032. He would do it near Ecuador, at some point that goes from northern South America to northern India, passing through central Africa. Meetings in NASA and ESA. We can agree that the probability of impact is still very small, but has put in suspense the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) of the UN, the committee that coordinates the response to asteroids of more than 50 meters with an impact probability of more than 1% in the next 50 years. With the planetary security protocol officially activated2024 YR4 has triggered, for the moment, two SMPAG meetings. One with the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Officeand another in Vienna with the experts of the ESE Planetary Defense Office. What the experts have decided. Actively observe the asteroid and meet again at the end of April or early May (or before, if the risk of impact increases significantly) to reassess the situation. The probabilities can change in favor or against time as astronomers make more observations and refine the calculations of the asteroid trajectory. If the asteroid remains greater than 50 meters and the probability of impact is maintained above 1% for the next meeting, the SMPAG will issue a recommendation on future actions to the United Nations External Space Affairs Office (oneo). We will definitely need offices with acronym that is easier to remember if Armageddon comes true. We have some practice. Let’s not forget that humanity has already successfully diverted an asteroid. NASA did as proof of concept in September 2022 with the Dart mission, a ship that Dimorphos’ trajectory slightly divertedthe small moon of the asteroid Didymos. The European Mission Hera He now goes there to study the impact result. Everything we can learn from this test (And the one that China will do in a few months) It could make a difference in future planetary defense missions, the case may be. Images | Astrophyscia Institute of the Canary Islands, NASA/JPL In Xataka | Dart has been a success. The question is whether it will really save us when an asteroid goes to Earth

NASA ends up announcing that this large asteroid has a 1% chance of impacting with the earth. That is not normal

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At the end of March last year, NASA launched a very special statement. The agency came to say that the biggest object that will happen near the earth will be An asteroid that will approximate 32,000 kilometers And it can be seen with the naked eye on April 13, 2029. A few hours ago, NASA has given another “those” news. They have found a meteorite distinct To all we know. YR4: Impact risk. As we said, NASA has issued a statement About an asteroid called as 2024 YR4 Discovered at the end of December 2024 by the Atlas system in Chile. This object has drawn attention because it presents a probability of impact superior to all recent meteorites: 1% for December 22, 2032which makes it one of the asteroids with the greatest potential risk of collision registered to date. With everything and as we usually say in these cases, this estimate will possibly change as new observations are made, with expectations that the probability of impact decreases. Classification and risk. The asteroid has an estimated size of between 40 and 91 meters in diameter, similar to that of the object that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. Therefore, currently It is classified at level 3 of the Torino scaleindicating a real probability of impact that merits monitoring, although, again, its level is expected to be reduced as more data will be obtained. This scale, used to evaluate the risk of asteroid impact, goes from 0 (without danger) to 10 (catastrophic collision). In any case and for us to get an idea, before this finding there was no recorded asteroid with a score greater than 0 on the Torino scale. Closeness and probabilities of impact. The closest step of 2024 YR4 is estimated at 0.00001 Astronomical Units (AU) of the Earth, which is equivalent to 1,500 kilometers away, that is, closer than many satellites in terrestrial orbit. At the moment, The impact probability is 1 in 83 (Approximately 1.2%), which has generated that concern in the scientific community. However, and although we look repetitive, it is important to underline that the experience with similar asteroids indicates that these probabilities usually decrease after more analysis. Precedents There have been cases of asteroids that have reached higher levels on the Torino scale and were subsequently discarded as threats. An example is 99942 apophis, which in 2004 reached level 4 due to a probability of 1.6% impact in 2029, Although subsequent studies eliminated any risk In 2029, 2036 and 2068. Therefore, it is feasible to think that asteroid 2024 YR4 in the future is reclassified at level 0 As their orbital calculations are related. Possible consequences and monitoring. To put ourselves in the worst of the stage, with a possible impact, 2024 YR4 would not represent a global extinction event, but could cause significant damage if impacting a populated area, similar to the famous Tunguska event that swept a vast region in Siberia. Therefore, NASA and other space agencies will continue to track their trajectory and refine the calculations to confirm their destination. Although The American agency has emphasized its statement that the probability of impact is still low (about 1%) and that this type of initial evaluations tend to be corrected over time, also ends up underlining that it will adjust its predictions ensuring that any potential risk is properly evaluated and, if necessary, addressed With planetary defense strategies. Image | POT In Xataka | The biggest object that will happen near Earth is an asteroid that will approximate 32,000 km and can be seen with the naked eye In Xataka | The last asteroid located by NASA, giving up “close” of the Earth: a mole of the size of the giza pyramid

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