SpaceX’s is the first of the record-breaking IPOs that are expected this year: it will take place on June 12, 2026 under the symbol SPCX. This operation promises to be the most important public offering of shares in history, and the company has already indicated that its objective is to obtain funds worth $75 billion to achieve an astronomical valuation of 1.75 billion euros. But how SpaceX is valued is one thing, and how analysts value it is quite another.
Overrated. The financial analysis firm Morningstar has carried out an analysis of SpaceX’s financial accounts and have reached a striking conclusion: “We believe the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have the opportunity to buy the shares at more attractive levels after the IPO.” Or what is the same: they advise not participating in that initial IPO, and waiting because they anticipate that the stock will fall in the first days on Wall Street.
It’s only worth half. In these conclusions, Morningstar establishes that the valuation discounting SpaceX’s cash flow is $780 billion. That represents 48% than the valuation of the private market, which is 1.5 trillion dollars, and 44.5% less than the valuation attributed to the company itself, which amounts to 1.75 trillion dollars.
Is it really more promising than Nvidia? Dan Coatsworh is one of the main analysts at the firm AJ Bell, and he commented on CNBC how that theoretical internal valuation of $1.75 trillion would mean that the value of SpaceX (P/E, Price to Earnings ratio) is 67 times its sales, two times more than, for example, happens at Nvidiathe most valuable company on the planet today.
Beware of xAI. One of SpaceX’s theoretical strengths is its artificial intelligence division, xAIbut analysts explain that in reality its theoretical advantage is “undetermined”, and in fact they pose it as “a material threat of value destruction” for the parent company, SpaceX. Morningstar believes that the AI division is worth $170 billion, and that what really matters is something else.
The Starlink engine. SpaceX’s real argument for going public and its real strength is not the reusable Falcon 9 rockets, but the profitability of Starlink. The company’s satellite constellation has achieved sustained cash flow in recent months, and its global customer base is growing at an enviable pace. It is undoubtedly SpaceX’s great recurring revenue generation machine. Morningstar values it at $611 billion.
The double class trick. SpaceX plans to sell shares at a fixed price of $135 per share, but they will only list 3% of the total shares. In addition, Elon Musk will continue to maintain tight control of the vote with 85% of the total through a dual-class share system. Class A shares, those that go public, allow the right to one vote per share. Class B shares go to the founder and the first key investors. They are not sold on the open market, and each one usually gives 10, 20 or more votes.
Institutional dependency. The value of the company, however, is supported by the contracts it has with the US government. Specifically with NASA and with the Department of Defensewhich depend entirely on SpaceX systems for their critical missions. That not only guarantees long-term income, but is a compelling argument to attract more conservative investment funds.
Either you believe Elon, or you don’t. We are facing an operation that will test Elon Musk’s real power over the markets. Although SpaceX is an extraordinary company, it is overvalued due to its founder’s habit of selling hype. The tactic of coming out as an indivisible package (Starlink + xAI +
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