US soybean silos are bursting because China no longer buys them. The threat to the US is used oil

The trade war and the exchange of tariffs between the US and China is having repercussions at many levels and agriculture is one of the sectors that is suffering the most from the consequences. Due to its size, China is one of the main importers of food products and is using this advantage to punish its rival. They are doing it with beef and also with soybeans. Now Trump has a threat to China.

What has happened? China was the main US customer in the soybean business, but the trade war is reconfiguring the game board and soybeans are being one of China’s main weapons in this tug of war. The decision to stop buying soy is wreaking havoc in the US and now Trump pushes to stop buying another product from them: used cooking oil. The president has used your social network Thruth to describe China’s move with soybeans as “an act of economic hostility” and has assured that “we can easily produce cooking oil ourselves, we do not need to buy it from China.”

Why it is important. The used cooking oil market moved 6.9 billion dollars in 2024. This oil is used to create biofuels, and with increased recycling and sustainability initiatives, the figure is expected to double by 2032. The United States is the world’s largest buyer of used oil and China is its largest supplier. According to data from the Department of Agriculture American, in 2024 the United States bought 43% of all the used oil produced by China.

The soy problem. China was the US’s main customer in the soybean business. Until not long ago, they bought 40% of all production from them, a figure that was reduced to 20% in 2024. Despite the reduction, it was still a lot: 27 million tons and a value of 12.8 billion dollars. In 2025 only about 16 million tons have been imported until July, but this was just the beginning. Currently, China has further reduced imports of US soybeans, which aim to be practically zero in the last quarter of the year. Instead, China is doing business with other countries: Brazil and Argentina.

Consequences. American farmers’ silos are bursting with soybeans. They count in the New York Times that states like North Dakota sold more than 70% of their production to China and now find that their best customer no longer buys from them. It is an enormous amount to be able to place before production goes to waste. The damage to the agriculture sector is enormous, with farms projecting losses of up to $400,000 this year.

Tensions. A few days ago we learned of Beijing’s decision to consolidate its dominance over rare earthsa strategic sector in which they are the key player. The United States responded with a 100% tariff which is accumulated to those already imposed previously. Trump exploded on social Thruth against the measure, but in one of his usual changes of position, days later posted another message in which he lowered his tone: “Don’t worry about China, everything will be fine. The highly respected President Xi has only had a bad time.” The threat to stop buying used oil represents a new escalation of tension, although there are voices like that of Rush Doshi, Biden’s former security adviser, They believe that it will not have great consequences and in Beijing it will be seen as a sign of weakness.

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