In the last hours, Hurricane Gabrielle has reached category 4 in the middle of the Atlantic. That is, the countdown has begun: during the next few days, the cyclone will move to the east until Friday impacts with the Azores. Just after, the unknowns begin.
Of those unknowns is what the weather information has been living in recent days. But now they begin to clear and, in fact, Aemet just said publicly That is on alert.
And it is because, although as we said yesterday it is already clear that the Azores will take the worst part, the truth is that the scenarios in which the storm arrives at the peninsula are increasingly probable.
Where is Gabrielle right now? Let’s start here. According to the latest notice of the National Hurricane Center in MiamiGabrielle is 2950 kilometers from the Azores. With sustained winds above the 220 km/h, the eye of the hurricane moves about 20 kilometers per hour to the northwest.
And then? After passing through the Azores, Gabrielle “will stop being a hurricane.” Will suffer an extroatropical transition. That is to say “its intense wind field ceases to be located, exorbitant, circular, symmetrical and becomes expanding, becoming asymmetric and losing intensity.”
That means that the Peninsula will approach the weekend as storm (something relatively common in autumn), but we do not know how, or when, or where exactly that transition will take place.
What does all this mean? Well, right now, the most likely scenarios already give a discounted that Gabrielle He will approach “To our region, with high probabilities of suffering an extroatropical transition (transformation on storm) of high intensity.” And he will catch us almost by surprise.
Because, although from Monday to Wednesday there will be a fresh atmosphere with showers, from Thursday we will enjoy a warm and stable atmosphere. It will be The summer of San MigueLy will be short (maybe very short). Just after: it is possible that the bad sea, the rains and the strong winds make an appearance in the west peninsular.
Image | HNC

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