The possibility of a nuclear disaster

All we know at this time is that the United States, through its president, has said that next week It will be “very important” to determine the course of war between Israel and the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, a fear appears in the background, one that, paradoxically, even Russia has put on the table four months after Chernobyl attack: “The world is millimeters from a catastrophe”, The Ministry said of Russian Foreign Affairs.

They talk about a nuclear catastrophe.

Potential impact on nuclear. I counted this week The Financial Times That Israeli air attacks against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure have revived fears about a possible radiological or chemical catastrophe in the region. In that regard, the general director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, described as “Deeply worrying” The offensive, warning that military escalation increases the risk of a radioactive release with serious consequences for the population and the environment.

Although for the moment It has not been registered a large -scale radiological emergency, some incidents, such as the Complex attack Natanz uranium enrichment, have caused localized pollution within the facilities, although without affecting the outside environment, according to measurements of the nuclear agency itself.

Radiological contamination The Current data indicate that the detected radioactive pollution is limited to the interior of the Natanz complex and is mainly composed of alpha particles, whose health risk is considered manageable If they are not inhaled or ingested, since their reach is reduced to direct contact with internal fabrics.

In the case of Natanz, I They damaged two rooms Underground enrichment and several surface buildings, including a pilot laboratory. However, the level of radiation in the surroundings He showed no changeswhich suggests that There has been no escape external As for other key facilities Like Fordow or the heavy water reactor in construction in Khondab, I don’t know They have registered damagewhile in Isfahán it has not been detected Radiation increase After recent attacks.

The difficulty of a catastrophe. The Times explained that a large explosion that releases radioactive pollutants massively requires to reach materials subjected to fissionas in an operational reactor or in an atomic pump. However, not even Bushehr nuclear power plant nor the Tehran research reactor They have been attacked so far. The enriched uranium that Iran possesses is in itself weakly radioactive and only presents greater risks in very specific conditions.

The release of fission products such as radioactive iodine or CESIO-137, responsible for the worst health effects after Chernobyl in 1986it does not seem likely on the current scenario. In addition, Iran’s main nuclear facilities are designed to minimize external risks: critical areas from Natanz and Fordow They are buried under tons of concrete and earth, which makes even powerful weapons have difficulty penetrating them full.

Chemical risks. Beyond radiation, experts point out that the real danger could be in the dispersion of toxic chemicals. In the facilities attacked, Like Natanz and Isfahánis stored and manipulated Uranium hexafluoruroa compound used in the enrichment process.

Although it is stable at room temperature, its contact with water (even that of air) can produce fluorhoric gas, highly corrosive and lethal if it is inhaled. The OIEA has confirmed that in him Attack to Natanz It is possible that compounds such as uranium, uranilfluoruro and even fluorhorical gas have released compounds, although contained within the enclosure. An illustrative case was the Explosion of 1986 In a conversion plant in Oklahoma, where the liberation of hexafluoruro caused a death and pollution in the environment, demonstrating the reach of this type of accidents even outside a war context.

International regulations. In the key to the international legal framework, armed attacks against nuclear facilities for peaceful purposes are prohibited. The OIEA has reiterated on several occasions that any aggression of this type violates the principles of the United Nations Charter, the rules of the agency and international law. Both Israel and Iran form part of the OIEAalthough the first is not a signatory of the non -proliferation treaty.

In 2022, the precedent of the Russian attack and subsequent occupation of the Ukrainian Central of Zaporiyia It was already pointed out by the agency as a made unprecedentedwhen it occurred in a large nuclear complex. In the case at hand, Israel justifies its actions in the suspicion that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, an accusation that Tehran denies. For its part, the OIEA declared recently that Iran has raped by First time in twenty years Its non -proliferation obligations, adding more tension to the context.

And if… Then there is another substantive issue. If the Iranian regime suddenly crumbled, leaving its enriched uranium arsenal and related materials unprotected, what would happen? Although air attacks can degrade critical infrastructure, they are not enough for themselves to guarantee the total elimination of nuclear abilities if they are dispersed or hidden.

Given this scenario, they remembered the The War Zone analysts that the US special forces (particularly elite units as Delta Force and Seal Team Six) They carry years preparing to intervene on the ground in nuclear emergency situations. Since 2016, El Special Operations Command (Socom) leads the mission of counteracting weapons of mass destruction (CWMD), inheriting this function of the strategic command (Stratcom). The acquired experience From the dissolution of the USSR to ensure uncontrolled arsenals serves as a model for these new contingencies.

The threshold of proliferation. According to the Latest Oiea reportsIran accumulate at least 400 kilograms of 60%enriched uranium, a purity much higher than necessary for civil use (3-5%), although below 90 % required For nuclear weapons. However, moving from 60% to 90% is a relatively short technical leap. The OIEA considers that with just 92.5 kg of 60% uranium it can get a nuclear bomb behind him Final enrichment.

This reality worries, since the regime has prevented inspections in all its nuclear facilities. Iran has even taken “special measures” to hide its nuclear material, As he admitted His Vice Minister of Foreign, without informing the OIEA. Actions that have multiplied Uncertainties On the whereabouts of sensitive materials, such as that hexafluoruro uranium we were talking about, or enriched uranium cylinderswhose quantity and mobility would allow them to easily hide them even before mass attacks.

Operating scenarios. They explained in TMZ that the United States Army has not only developed plans to Surgical incursionsbut has executed real exercises simulating raids in hostile nuclear facilities. An example was joint training in 2023 between The Ranger Regiment and the NDT-1 nuclear deactivation equipment in an old radiological installation, where they simulated a Enemy fire assault.

Other exercises They included the shot of the nuclear beautiful Power Plant in Alabama and its operational deactivation. These units, under the command of the 20th CBRNE command (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosives), They are specialized in locating, exploiting and neutralizing nuclear infrastructure, as well as ensuring critical components. His mission focuses on denying nuclear abilities to enemies in hostile and sensitive environments.

Reaction to mobile threats. The sudden collapse of the Iranian regime or the displacement of nuclear material outside the facilities could require dynamic operations to intercept shipments in transit, either by land or sea. Under that scenario, the Analysts underline that the special forces, for their “discreet and fast” infiltration capacity, would be in the front line for such missions. In addition, there is a risk that nuclear material or technology reaches groups such as The hutis in Yemenwhich already It has been discussed in private among American and Israeli officials.

Although there is no confirmed evidence of such transfer, the History of Iran exporting ballistic missiles, drones and aerial defenses to its regional allies underline the proliferation potential. Plus: The threat is not limited to uranium. Iran could also have parallel programs of chemical and biological weapons. After the fall of Gaddafi, the United States had to custody arsenales Chemicals in Libya for three years To neutralize thema precedent that could be repeated in Iran if the collapse system.

A global threat. In summary, contingencies are not limited to the present conflict between Israel and Iran. History shows that the loss of nuclear material control (even In small quantities) may have global consequences, either in shape of dirty bombsTransfer a third parties or even geopolitical blackmail.

Unstable balance. On the other sidewalk, and although for now there has been no nuclear disaster, the risk Keep present. The continuity of bombings on Sensitive facilities I could alter that fragile balance. Although the complex design And security protocols reduce the probability of a major catastrophe, any calculation error, unplanned impact or collateral damage could trigger an episode of unpredictable consequences.

The possibility of Chemical pollutionmore than radiological, it is at this time the main focus of technical concern. Thus, already measure that the aerial offensive advances and the list of objectives is extended, the danger does not reside so much in a large -scale accident and in the accumulation of Microincidents that, if repeated, can lead to a health or environmental emergency, such as explained the Financial Times.

The OIEA warning It points precisely to that inflection point still avoidable, but increasingly close.

Image | US Department of Energy, Wikimedia, Maxar, Us Army

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