What North Korea is a global threat by land, sea and air

It happened a few hours ago. Kim Jong Un revealed A plan to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile of solid fuelthus showing the advances of your arms program just before traveling to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and Putin in the framework of the celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Because North Korea has gone from being a possible threat To confirm as a challenge to international order.

The new axis and an impulse. The weekend, The Washington Post dissected the latest advances by Pyongyang. Since 2021, when Kim Jong a presented a five -year plan to develop nuclear capabilities of great powers, North Korea has made unexpected advances thanks to a favorable international context and the direct support of Russia.

We have gone counting. The war in Ukraine opened a Cooperation channel Strategic: Pyongyang He provided artillery and troops to a moscow eager for ammunition, I have already received Technological transfermilitary assistance and economic support. This turn reduces North Korean dependence of the United States as an interlocutor and reinforces Kim’s ability to challenge the West with a more diverse and modern arsenal.

Progress in eyelets and deterrence. One of the recent milestones has been the presentation of the HWASAN-31a miniaturized tactical eye that reflects progress in the adaptation of nuclear weapons to missiles. Although it has not yet been tested in detonation or atmospheric reentry, its mere existence suggests that Pyongyang advances towards a more flexible and difficult arsenal to neutralize.

At the same time, Kim maintains the ambition of completing the development of a bomb high -power hydrogensupported by continued production of highly enriched uranium, which reinforces the threat of an increasingly varied repertoire of weapons.

Missiles, satellites and saturation. In the last four years North Korea has tried Intercontinental Balistic missiles with reach to American continental territory, in addition to tactical missiles for Japan and South Korea. After several failed attempts, he managed to put a Military Recognition Satellitea long -distance strategic objective.

The current challenge lies in the development of multiple reentry vehicles (MIRV), which would allow a single missile transport several heads nuclear towards different targets, complicating the American antimile defense. An essay in 2024, although failed in its propulsion phase, confirms the seriousness of the project and anticipates more evidence in the immediate future.

Nuclear and hypersonic submarines. It We also count. The regime has shown the structure of what it states will be its first submarine of nuclear propulsiona technology reserved for a small world club. Although experts believe that it is far from operability, the Russian experience in this field could accelerate the deadlines, as already happened with India in the 1980s.

At the same time, Pyongyang has tried hypersonic missiles and a new generation planning vehicle, The Hwasong-16bwith an alleged flight of 930 miles at speeds superior to Mach 12. Although doubts persist about the veracity of this data, the continuous effort suggests that North Korea wants to enter the most advanced technological career of contemporary weapons.

Drones and the lesson of Ukraine. The use of drones has become A plan pillar North Korean. Pyongyang has deployed recognition models and is producing armed devices capable of launching GPS guided bombs. His direct learning of war in Ukraine, together With Russian cooperation In manufacturing of geran drones (Derivatives of the Iranians Shahed), has allowed a qualitative leap.

Russian instructors They train to North Korean pilots, consolidating a new dimension of the Technological Alliance. The slowness of Seoul to develop an equivalent strategy reinforces The tactical advantage of Kim in the Korean Peninsula.

The magnitude of the program. Had a few hours ago The CNN that the discovery of the secret missile base of Sinpung-Donglocated just 27 kilometers from the border with China, confirms the existence of strategic facilities that Pyongyang has never declared and that are part of a hidden network of between 15 and 20 complexes of storage and deployment of ballistic missiles.

The report The Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that from there they could deploy to nine intercontinental nuclear capacity missiles with their respective mobile pitchers, configuring a direct threat not only for East Asia, but also for much of the United States continental territory.

Location and base size. Raised in a mountainous valley and crossed by a stream, the base occupies an area of 22 square kilometerswhich makes it more extensive than, for example, the JFK International Airport in New York. The first evidence of its construction date back to 2004, and satellite images point out that it has been fully operational since 2014.

Since then, it has remained in good condition, with continuous extensions that reflect the modernization of North Korean Arsenal. The site also gives a Geopolitical advantage: By being so close to the Chinese territory, any military operation against the base entails the risk of triggering an incident with Beijing, a strategic calculation that reinforces the deterrent value of the complex.

So that. Although it is not known with certainty what type of missiles are stored in Sinpung-Dong, analysts consider it likely to be The Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-18both intercontinental and with nuclear capacity.

The complex would also be equipped with Mobile transport units And launch, capable of leaving the enclosure in crisis situations, meeting with nuclear eyelets and executing shots from previously prepared scattered positions. This operation scheme increases the survival of arsenal and the difficulty of neutralizing it with a preventive attack.

Camouflaged infrastructure. There are more, since The study details The existence of control stalls, warehouses, command buildings and small homes inside the complex, some of them camouflaged under thick trees and thickets, invisible in most satellite images except in winter.

In other words, this degree of concealment seems to reveal a dispersion and deception strategy that seeks to guarantee the operational continuity of the program. The base fits what experts call The “missile belt” From North Korea, a network of strategic facilities designed to expand the country’s nuclear deterrence and increase their reprisal capacity against the United States and its allies.

Consequences and dilemmas. In short, with an arsenal more credible than everKim Jong is possibly destabilizing provocations. Although most of the new capabilities are not yet fully matureeach test (successful or failed) feeds an irreversible learning process.

Thus, the great fear of analysts is that, with the Help of MoscowNorth Korea reaches an explosive technological leap that accelerates the proliferation of advanced weapons yvUuelva impossible to go back in the nuclear terrain. In that scenario, the central question seems clear: if the alliance with Russia will not only guarantee the survival of the regime, but will place it as a first-order nuclear actor with real ability to alter the strategic balance in Asia-Pacific.

Image | Ryan ChanPlanet Labs, Ryan Chan

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