In recent weeks the war in Ukraine had taken a more worrying channel with a made unprecedented From the Russian invasion in 2022. Lost combat drones were arriving To countries outside the conflicteven impacting the land. However, what happened few hours ago is completely different.
Poland (and NATO) have just enter In the contest.
Polish interception. Yes, Poland It has knocked down For the first time Russian drones that penetrated their airspace during a massive attack against Ukraine, in what Warsaw He described how an “unprecedented violation.” The operation, carried out in the early morning with fighters and Polish anti -aircraft defense systems and other NATO allies (including F-35 Dutch), supposes the most serious clash between Moscow and the Atlantic Alliance since the beginning of the Russian Invasion on a large scale in February 2022.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed That armament was used against intruder objects, convened an emergency meeting and claimed to maintain constant contact with NATO general, Mark Rutte. For its part. The president of France Macron has described Incursion as “simply unacceptable.”
Critical climbing. The incident occurs in a context of great tension, with Russian military exercises Zapad About to start with Belarus and Washington pressed by European capitals to adopt a firmer position against Moscow.
Said war games, five days, They imply to the armed forces of Russia and Belarus and develop very close to the Polish border, which increases the risk of incidents.
The military dimension. The Polish Armed Forces confirmed that several military aircraft participated in the operation, with radar systems and air defense activated to the highest level of alert. HE They identified and demolished Some of the intruder drones in regions such as Podlaskie, Mazowieckie and Lublin, where there were even traces of devices, as in the town of Czosnówka.
I also knowThey used flights In the Chopin airport in Warsovia and in three other aerodromes, including Rzesów-Jjaka, key for its proximity to Ukraine.
The change in Russian strategy. Russia has intensified since summer the use of drones and missiles to saturate Ukrainian defense and exhaust its interceptors. Only last weekend launched more than 800 drones and a dozen missiles in the largest air attack since 2022.
This tactic too Multiply the risks For neighboring countries of Ukraine, such as Poland, which until now had suffered the fall of lost projectiles (such as the one that killed two farmers in 2022), but had never directly intercepted Russian devices in flight.
Implications The Polish response occurs at a time of political uncertainty In Washington, with President Donald Trump trying to force peace negotiations between kyiv and Moscow, but without success.
The lack of immediate reactions of the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department highlights the US caution before an action that can mark a before and after in the involvement of NATO. Plus: Warsaw decided Close completely Its border with Belarus, even more hardening the posture against its eastern neighbors.
What changes now. The fact that Poland has used kinetic means to reduce Russian drones inside its airs Exercise active defense.
If you want, this redefines your response threshold: from this moment, any unidentified and hostile profile can be treated As immediate threat. In terms of deterrence, the message is sent to Moscow that the “navigation errors”, collateral probes or saturations will no longer have zero cost. In terms aliancistasTest in real conditions the integrated air defense architecture NATO on the eastern flank.
Risk and management. The use of Polish fire against Russian objects raises the potential of Friction on three levels: Tactical (more interceptions and greater probability of fragmentation on populated areas), operational (expansion of confrontation rules and greater density of aerial patrols) and strategic (Russian diplomatic or military response, including propaganda and mirror measures in Kalinningrad and Beelorusia).
In addition, the coincidence with Zapad exercises increases the danger of Malinterpretation: Training flights, air targets or lures can be confused with real threats. Mitigation requires positive identification protocols, clear red lines and active distrust channels, ideally backed by shared early alerts and previous notifications of exercises.
Article 5 and a theory. Although an isolated demolition of drones does not active per se Article 5, does press the debate on the “threshold” of armed aggression. Poland can argue legitimate defense (Art. 51 of the UN Letter) Before repeated incursions that put infrastructure or population at risk.
If it was demonstrated that Russian platforms were deliberately directed to transit or attack in NATO territory, the case for consultations of article 4 (and, in significant damage scenarios or victims, for 5) it is reinforced. Moscow, aware of this, can intensify ambiguity: drones with erratic flight plan, lures or minimal loads to maintain that kind of “gray zone”.
The allied response, therefore, must be graduated, documented and legally solid.
Image | Nato North Atlantic, 7th Army Training Command,
In Xataka | The Ukrainian army that is not afraid of Russia. They arrive as outdated machines and become robots for war
In Xataka | Something unprecedented in Ukraine is happening: combat drones do not need humans to coordinate and attack
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings