Today’s China bears little resemblance to that of the mid-20th century, when in the time of Mao Zedong the People’s Republic decided to promote its first five year plan. ran the year 1953 and the country was preparing for the Great Leap Forwardan attempt at industrial modernization that ended with a famine with tragic consequences. Since then China has chained almost uninterrupted five-year plans, documents that help understand its evolution.
Its reading is interesting now that the Central Committee of the Communist Party has launched the machinery to provide a plan for 2026-2030.
Playing short or long term? On Monday Isaac Stone Fish, founder of Strategy Risk, opened a debate interesting in X: What horizon does China use when drawing up strategies? Do you focus on the long term or do you think only a few years ahead? It is not a minor issue. Stone himself brought up the subject a video released by the White House, the fragment of an interview granted by Trump to CBS in which it was pointed out that the Chinese “are playing the long game.”
Click on the image to go to the tweet.
“A recommended read”. “Let’s stop saying that the Chinese are playing the long game. This is orientalist nonsense that we must eradicate from our discourse with China. Read the Five Year Plan from five years ago and you will see how different China has become from what its leaders predicted. The Chinese think, like the rest of the people, mainly about the challenges they will face today and in the years to come,” claims the analyst, who assures that long-term speeches have other purposes, such as the party’s self-reaffirmation. He is not the only one who believes it.
“If you are interested in reality, read the Chinese five-year plans. They are instructive,” slid another user in X. “Read a plan from five years ago. It is recommended.”
But what are five-year plans? Economic and social guides, five-year guidelines that the Chinese authorities set for themselves and that basically set objectives in terms of development, industry, innovation or well-being. Also the paths to reach them. The first dates back to 1953 and since then they have been happening (with almost no pauses) with greater or lesser success, but exerting a key influence on the national evolution of the last 70 years.
In fact it is not strange to hear that the turning point in China’s modern development came in 1978, with the economic reform promoted by Deng Xiaoping, which was followed shortly after by a five-year plan for the period 1981-1985.
“A macro guideline”. “The five-year plan serves as a way for leaders to take stock, examine challenges and tasks, set directions and move forward. It must be followed closely, as strategic thinking and planning have become a rarity among governments,” They explain to EFE Nomura analysts.
“It is a macro-level instruction or guideline for the market to know, including investors, state-owned enterprises and the public, to have the correct expectation of what government policy will be in the future,” comment in AP Li Lun, professor at Peking University. Its role is important because, as remember Neil Thomasresearcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute, marks a key difference with Europe or the US “Western politics operates through electoral cycles, but Chinese policymaking operates through planning cycles.”
In the focus. That the Chinese five-year plans are being talked about right now is no coincidence. The country is immersed in the preparation of the new roadmap that will mark its steps until 2030, a complex scenario marked by the real estate crisishe weakening of domestic consumptionthe trade tensionshe youth unemployment or the aging of the population, among other challenges.
A few days ago the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party met behind closed doors to talk about the new five-year plan, a document that will not be approved until March 2026but the one that Beijing wanted advance some keys. Among other goals, the technological self-sufficiencymaintain at a level “reasonable” of manufacturing and raise life expectancy up to the 80 years.
Why is it important? Because although there is still a long way to go for the approval of the new five-year plan, in the past this roadmap has been key to understanding the priorities of the Chinese Government. Also in its development. At the end of October Nick Mash published an analysis on the BBC in which he details three occasions in which the plans have influenced the world economy: the reformist and opening trend of 1981-1984, the commitment to “strategic emerging industries” during 2011-2015 and “high-quality development” (2021-2025).
Images | Dominic Kurniawan Suryaputra (Unsplash) and Chinese Communist Party
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