A fifth of Apple’s annual benefit is at risk of disappearing overnight

Apple had a big week a few days ago with the WWDC 2025. His most important event of the year, with the permission of the presentation of the iPhone, caught him at a critical moment for the turbulence crossed by AI, but resolved with a much more solid presentation than we expected.

At 4,500 kilometers from there, a Washington judge deliberated about a decision that could be a drama for the company’s finances. Amit Mehta, the magistrate, He is studying to prohibit the payments that Google makes to Apple for keeping him as a default search engine in Safari.

Why is it important. That check amounts to 20,000 million dollars a year and represents 20% of the income of Apple’s ‘services’ division, the second most important.

And being a clean income, without operational costs, also represents around 20% of Apple’s annual net profit.

The background. Mehta already ruled that Google violates antitrust laws With these agreements, preventing other competitors from accessing the privileged position in Safari.

Now consider several measures to correct this, from forcing Google to share data with rivals to force Chrome’s sale as an independent product. Eliminate the agreement with Apple It would be very direct.

• There is a reading between the lines to the agreement: it is the form that Google has to deter Apple that it throws its own search engine. A direct and large payment that compensates for giving up its vertical integration.

In figures:

• Apple’s services grew from 85,000 to 96,000 million in 2024.
• Without the agreement with Google, I would suddenly lose a fifth of its annual net benefit.
• There is no short -term alternative to replace 20,000 million with 100% gross margin.

The threat. Precisely that: not finding a substitute that approaches what Google pays. No one monetizes searches in such a massive and efficient way. It seems very unlikely that Microsoft dedicates such a check to boost bing. And the scale is far from Openai’s possibilities, which already loses a lot of money a year to risk an amount that does not have in position yourself as a search engine.

Yes, but. A final judicial decision could take years to materialize. The cause, of course, are the appeals.

The judge has anticipated that eliminating the agreement would be a last resort if other measures do not work. And Google will also challenge any resolution that arises from the process.

Between the lines. For Google, losing the default position in Safari would not be ideal, but financially would win by recovering those 20,000 million annually. Apple, on the other hand, would lose its main growth engine just when you need it most to reduce its dependence on the iPhone.

The following if you reach a stage like this would be a very likely Apple’s own search engine with which to try to create a 20,000 million business a year … or as close as possible.

Outstanding image | Alexander Gray in UnspashMockuuups Studio

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