is that Iran has “lost the keys” and without them the balance is broken

There are only a few maritime passages in the world capable of altering the global economy in a matter of days, and some of them are so narrow that they could fit inside a large city. Through those corridors they circulate every day hundreds of ships loaded with energy, raw materials and essential goods. Their fragility is such that a large military deployment is not necessary to alter them: it is enough that something stopped fitting so that the entire system suffers.

Closed… but not by what it seems. For weeks, the international focus has been on whether the Strait of Hormuz was open or closedbut the reality could be much more disturbing: that Iran is not fully in control of the shutdown it caused.

After laying naval mines in response to attacks by the United States and Israel, the passage was practically paralyzed, raising energy prices and giving Tehran a powerful tool of pressure. However, this same strategy has generated an unexpected situation in which, according to Iran has slippedthe blockade no longer depends only on a political or military decision, but on a technical problem that is much more difficult to reverse.

The concept of “losing the keys”. Because the core of the problem is how the mines could have been deployed: hastily, disorganized and, in the worst case, without a record. accurate of your location. Some were even able to move through ocean currents, further complicating their location.

So, this weekend counted the new york times that what in theory should have been a controlled closure of the strait has become something more chaotic and disturbing, where not even those who placed the mines know with certainty where they all are. The metaphor of “losing the keys” is not rhetorical, but rather a quite literal description of the situation that has been heard. in embassies in Tehran: Iran has blocked the door, but can no longer open it easily.

An effective weapon against. He use of minescombined with the threat of drones and missiles, managed to reduce maritime traffic to a minimum and generate strong global pressure, but that strategic advantage began to turn against Tehran.

To mitigate the impact, Iran has maintained limited corridors and spread supposedly safe routes, even allowing some ships to pass under certain conditions. Even so, the traffic flow has not been normalizedbecause the risk remains too high and uncertainty about the location of the mines persists.

The technical limit of a modern war. Basically, something that we have been counting these weeks: the elimination of naval mines is one of the more complex operations in the military field, and not even powers like the United States have sufficient capabilities to quickly clear a road as critical as Hormuz.

In this context, the Iranian situation is even more delicate: its own technical limitations, aggravated by the attacks to its naval infrastructuremake a quick reopening unfeasible. This introduces an unexpected factor into the negotiations, since the “technical limitations” mentioned by its leaders are not a diplomatic excuse, but a real obstacle.

Unstable balance with risk of escalation. The result is a scenario extremely fragilewhere a partially blocked strait depends as much on political decisions as an out-of-control minefield. Neither Iran nor the United States have a clear image of how many mines there are or where they are, while Tehran retains the ability to plant more with small boats that are difficult to track.

Of course there is also an option that no one rules out. Now that it is the United States that has decided to block Hormuz. Iran could be playing its cards, because the normal thing is that all the mines are mappedand that Tehran simply does not trust Washington and refuses to take any steps before receiving concrete concessions.

And in all these scenarios, Hormuz becomes an area where any error, accident or incorrect calculation can escalate quickly, because the problem is no longer just who controls the passage, but that no one has full control of what happens underwater.

Image | Jenikir

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