This story begins with a pinch of hope. In recent days, the main meteorological models were beginning to agree: the interaction of a deep trough and a subtropical low that would generate a fairly active front.
In other words, for the first time in a long time, real rain could make its way to Spain. Not even Danasnor summer storms: real water.
The problem? That, actually, that They were just a handful of exits. deterministic and considering that autumn has always been (and will be increasingly) infernally difficult to model, that was very little.
It doesn’t mean, of course, that it won’t rain. It’s going to rain, but the doubts are enormous. Although, as the cards are dealt, it all starts to make sense.
But what is going to happen? According to AEMETFrom Monday to Wednesday, the rain will be concentrated in the northwest of the peninsula. However, only in Galicia will it be persistent and there will be significant accumulations. On Thursday the situation will become more “democratic” and the rains will reach a good part of the northwest, the center of the Peninsula and the Pyrenees. The wind can be very strong.
However, real rain (as “real” as it can be in this situation) in the center will have to wait until Friday.
Beyond Friday everything becomes more diffuse, some rain is expected in the interior, in the south and in the Balearic Islands. And, almost certainly, a small drop in temperatures followed by another rebound. One that will leave us better than we were, yes; but with temperatures above normal.
And then? In reality, everything seems to indicate that these meteorological skirmishes will be little. And, given this, many experts already they begin to put their hopes in December.
That’s bad, yes. It is true that the country’s reservoirs they are much better not just last year, but the average of the last ten years. But this “water cushion” will not last forever and, although we tend to forget, autumn is a particularly important season for reserves. “in general terms, autumn usually registers higher accumulations than winter in our country as a whole”, said Yurima Celdrán.
If we lose it, we will be facing the next drought with one hand tied behind our back. And going to December to wait for a ‘miracle’ is not positive at all.
Image | ECMWF
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