The price of olive oil in origin has returned to “normality.” What everyone wonders is what happens to supermarkets

Every week, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food publishes the price of oil at source and The last bulletin is full of good news. The price of ‘liquid gold’ before reaching bottling, distributors and supermarkets has returned to the levels prior to the ‘boom’ of recent years.

Now the most difficult is: this reaches supermarkets.

When did the oil price start uploading? Actually, the price of oil began to rise erratically from the beginning of the Ukraine War. The explanation is simple: Ukraine was one of the largest producers of vegetable oils in the world. As soon as the problems began, manufacturers around the world went to other types of oils and that raised the price of oil (also driven by the increase in energy, fertilizers and oros agricultural inputs).

It was, however, a conjunctural price increase.

However, like Cristina G. bolinches pointed at eldiario.esthe situation began to complicate in autumn of 2022, when the Ministry of Agriculture warned that the harvest was going to be abnormally low. From that moment on, a roller coaster of ups and downs that now, finally, reaches its term.

What price do we talk about? According to the Ministryon March 16, the 100 kilos of oil in origin were at 406.04 euros. A little (very little) above the traditional profitability threshold of the dry land. Before the war, the price became lower, but to this we would have to discount the inflation and rise of costs. In addition, the trend (although slowed) remains positive.

In Italy, for example, the price Still still in the clouds.

The price in supermarkets. In the lines of the stores the price has also dropped. Above all, if we take as a reference the 12 euros per liter of virgin oil of extra olive that was requested in the worst moments of 2024. Right now, the liter (in white marks) can be found at 5.80 euros, according to Bolinches.

The problem is that in October 2022, just when the price of oil was at these prices, the liter You could find 3.2 euros per liter.

Rockets and feathers. It is, however, a well -known phenomenon in other goods. When the Brent barrel rises in price, the fuels experience strong and almost immediate growth. On the other hand, when you go down, prices They fall much more moderate.

In the case of oil, in addition, it is logical. It is enough to remember that the largest distributor in the world, deoleo, lost 34 million euros Only in 2023. All that entity that has some power in the market will try to soften the price drop to square the accounts at the end of the month.

In this sense, the fall in origin evidence that producers are still the weakest leg of the entire framework. After years walking on the tightrope, they need income to stay alive. Above all, in an environment in which prices can fall even more.

When will ‘normality’ return to the supermarket? A priori, it’s a matter of time. The rains of the month of March They predict good conditions for the next harvest. It is true that everything can still be twisted, but it is the stimulus that the market needed to assume that they don’t have much time.

Of course, the months of March They are becoming more wet And that has long -term implications. It will be necessary to see how all these climatic changes affect the Olivos Sea and, by extension, to our diet. For now, everything seems to indicate that the sector is getting interesting.

Image | Fulvio Ciccolo | Eduardo Soares

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