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We thought that the olive oil sector was so broken that the olivers were losing 270 million euros. Is more than double

When Jesús Cózar, general secretary of UPA Andalucía, gave a press conference saying That “the olive growers have stopped receiving 270 million euros in the month of March, or what is the same, more than 8 million daily, due to the current situation of ruin prices in origin,” many raised an eyebrow.

That’s the milkmaid accounts, they said.

Now a team from the University of Jaén, the University of Córdoba and the Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training has calculated the alleged imbalance of the oil market and a clear conclusion has arrived: Cózar fell short.

Market imbalance? In general terms, we can conceptualize the olive oil market as if it were a huge equilibrium machine: the final price of the oil arises from a balance in which many things intervene; But above all, the total stocks and the expected demand.

If there is little oil, as happened in recent years, the price tends to rise until the demand fits the amount there is. If there is a lot of oil, it occurs just the other way around. Well, with that principle in mind, we can evaluate whether the market is unbalanced: that is, if the price is above or below what it should be.

That is what they have measured. After weeks and weeks with the fly behind the ear, the Provincial Council of Olive Oil of the Provincial Council of Jaén requested a report on the current market situation. To evaluate the real situation, the UJA/UCO/IFAPA team has used a series of new computer analysis models of imbalances.

According to your conclusionsthe price of the AVE in origin should be between 5.55 and 6.14 euros/kg. The fork is due to the fact that some data are still missing and the final production can reach between 1.29 and 1.5 million tons.

What does this translate? Basically, the 270 million euros spoken by the Secretary of the Andalusian UPA are an anecdote: what the Spanish olive groves are ceasing to receive are 626 million euros.

From October to March, the average price at source in these months has been € 4.49. That is, one euro below the minimum estimated price in the study.

What is happening? They don’t even know. A few days ago, Juan Luís Ávila, the head of the Olivar de Coag sector He wondered “What is happening in the market so that prices remain artificially low.” In fact, he is preparing a complaint with the National Markets Commission and the competence to find out.

Why is it interesting? Because All this situation (That arrives, remember, at a particularly delicate moment for the olive industry after years of crisis and hoping that this year would be resolved) is very complicated: it is still clear that, Despite the weight of Spain in the sectormarket mechanisms are easily alterable.

And not even in contexts Where we have the “pan for the mango”there are useful instruments to have it controlled (or even know that everything is working correctly).

Image | FERI TASOS

In Xataka | In the middle of the largest commercial chaos, olive oil seems immune thanks to a factor: consumption in Spain

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