Save the price or save power. And he has chosen the path of self -destruction

In just ten minutes of video call, eight OPEC+ countries made a decision with the potential to alter the balance of the global energy market. Behind this new movement, that could be expectedthere is something else: a carefully calibrated strategy, with economic and geopolitical implications that could spread far beyond the barrel.

Opening the tap. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – the eight OPEC+ countries that They applied volunteer cuts In 2023— they have been gradually increasing Your production. Now they have decided to accelerate this process: from August they will add 548,000 additional daily barrels, and do not rule out another similar increase in September. According to the official notethis could be completed before planning the total reversal of 2.2 million barrels per day that stopped pumping last year.

Do you enjoy good health? It seems that yes, or at least that the reason declared by the OPEC+. From the organization They have expressed that there is a “good health of the oil market”, with low inventories and a global demand that remains stable. Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst cited by BloombergHe explained that “the market remains adjusted, suggesting that it can absorb additional barrels.”

However, there are more reasons behind the scenes. According to Goldman Sachs bank has pointed out for Reuters that the measure is part of a broader strategy to normalize idle capacity and discipline the schist sector in the US. In this way, the entity provides that the eight countries will increase its collective production by 1.67 million BPD between March and September, with Saudi Arabia leading more than 60% of the increase.

The threat of oversupply. In the short term, the market seems receptive. The same day of the ad, the price of crude rose slightly, challenging the most pessimistic predictions about the fall in demand. However, medium -term consequences are uncertain. The reality is that the market is currently “adjusted”, commercial tensions and The “Peak Oil” Chinese They could translate into a significant oversupply for the end of the year, especially in winter. The International Energy Agency It foresees a surplus of up to 1.5% of world consumption for the fourth quarter of 2025.

In addition, some experts like Doug King, from RCMA Capital, They have remembered in Bloomberg that the “official” increase of the offer does not always equals real availability, since countries like Kazakhstan They keep breaking installments while Saudi Arabia presses for compensation to those who have overcome in the past.

A possible domino effect. The OPEC+ decision impacts unevenly. For importing countries such as India or the European Union, the lowest prices of oil relieve internal economic tensions. But for producers outside the poster, the stage is more uncertain. The pressure on the American shale sector, highly dependent on prices above $ 60-65 per barrel, intensifies.

Here enters the United States. Interestingly, this measure is also aligned with the political interests of Donald Trump, who has promised to reduce fuel costs to relieve the crisis of the cost of living. Your pressure on OPEC to increase production is well known, and its insistence on Apply tariffs and interest rate cuts could be tilting the balance in its favor.

But there is another face: the American oil industry, one of Trump’s main economic and political bastions, It is also the most exposed. If prices fall below 60 dollars, many shale companies could see their profitability compromised. As Oilprice has pointed outdespite the current difficulties of companies such as Exxon and Shell, demand remains more robust than expected, challenging the collapse narrative for electric vehicles. However, the risk is clear: a new price drop could put in check to the United States’s own energy, which has already announced less perforations for this year due to the uncertainty of the market.

Can Riad hold it? This is one of the big questions. Despite its apparent confidence, Saudi Arabia also faces internal pressures. According to the International Monetary Fundyou need prices above $ 90 per barrel to cover your budget. The economic reforms of the heir prince Mohammed Bin Salman, which include ambitious national projectsThey require sustained investments. According to Bloombergif prices collapse, Riad could be forced to cut public spending or even withdraw oil from the market to defend their income.

A cyclical dynamic. This episode reveals a change in the OPEC+strategy: less emphasis on high prices and more focus on recovering market share, even at the expense of lower prices. As Oilprice has detailedoil remains a market subject to temporary swings, and large oil companies are better prepared to resist. But volatility remains the sign of time.

The next chapter will be written on August 3, when the OPEC+ decides if it continues with the last stage of the planned increase, the oil market faces a key question: will the OPEC+ short -term pricing stability work in long -term influence?

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