OpenAi wants to bill as much as Microsoft in five years. For this

OpenAi projects to enter 2030 about 200,000 million dollars. It is almost the same as Microsoft invoices today, 245,000 million dollars.

A company that this year will touch the 12,000 million dollars believes that it will multiply its income in less than five years. To contextualize excess: Apple took four decades to reach those figures. Google, two decades. Openai intends to do so in decade and a half of life, with a nuance: Until three years ago I did not invoice or one hundred million. His “zero moment” was in 2022.

The planned growth graph, published by The InformationIt has many layers. The excessive ambition is just one of them. The income is triggered exponentially, but the computer costs – both training as an inference – grow almost linearly.

This equation only works if Openai ceases to be what it is today: a company that sells access to LLMS for 20 dollars a month. It needs to be something else that goes much further. The question is not whether they can multiply their income by 17, but what they have to invent to justify such assessment.

The secret is in the agents. But not what we imagine. Openai does not aspire to sell you a smarter chatgpt. Aspires to replace entire departments. Deep Research The model already hints: do not charge for consultation but for work done.

If a report that previously required three Junior analysts for a week now does an agent in a few minutes, supervised by a single employee, how much is it worth? It is not worth $ 20 of a subscription. It is worth $ 50,000 that these salaries cost.

Multiplied by each department of each company of Fortune 500 … Suddenly, the 200,000 million do not seem science fiction. They seem to conservatives. But here comes the existential paradox of OpenAi: pato capture that value need their models to be irreplaceable, unique, unattainable.

However, every month that passes, the gap with Claude, Gemini or Deepseek narrows. The Commoditization of the AI It is not a future threat: it is already happening. How do you justify monopoly prices when your product is becoming water or electricity? Openai’s response seems to be the speed:

1. Arrive first.
2. Dominate the market.
3. Create dependence before others can react.

It is the old strategy of companies such as Uber or Amazon: losing money to buy market share, praying so that when profitability comes, you are the only one standing.

Plan B is in vertical applications. They will not sell generic but specific solutions:

• The complete customer service system of your company.
• The educational platform of your university.
• The legal co -pilot of your office.

Each vertical, a new market of billions. This is where the numbers begin to make sense. Microsoft 365 generates Microsoft almost 100,000 million annually. The World Business Software Market Billón approaches. If OpenAI captures just 20% replacing traditional software with intelligent agents, it reaches its goal. You don’t need to invent anything new. You just need to make everything that exists obsolete.

Openai’s real bet is not as technological as temporary. They are buying time with 350,000 million in computer costs, betting on the AGI “Or something similar enough, that For something Altman has been moving the goal for some time– It arrives before the money is over.

If they get it, those 200,000 million will be an anecdote. If they fail, we will have seen the most spectacular bubble in technological history.

And the fascinating thing is not that Openai is trying. Is that everyone who imports –Microsoft, Oracle, Softbank, the US government– They seem to believe they can achieve it.

Outstanding image | Adolfo Félix

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