Openai has opted a billion dollars to become the Windows of the AI. Or it goes well or is going to be the mother of all bubbles

In recent weeks, Openai has signed contracts that total more than one billion dollars (it is not a False Friend) With Nvidia, Oracle and AMD. But for now it continues to burn effective and does not expect to be profitable, at least, until 2030.

Why is it important. This is not a growth strategy. It is an existential commitment. Large door or cemetery. Openai can only justify these commitments if it becomes the inevitable platform on which the entire ecosystem of the build. As Windows was for the PC.

The general panoramic. Ben Thompson, analyst Stratechery, has defined it perfectly: OpenAI is running Microsoft’s play in the 80s and 90s. He doesn’t want to be a software company. It wants to be the AI ​​operating system.

This week has presented native apps within chatgpt: Canva, Zillow, Spotify, Uber or Booking among others are integrated directly into the chatbot. They are not external links but experiences that live within Chatgpt, just like Excel and Word lived within Windows.

The difference with being any app changes everything:

• If you are the platform, capture to users first and developers come later.
• First you add mass users, then you get free developers for your platform.
• Chatgpt has hundreds of millions of users. The companies that are integrated this week because Openai controls access to that audience.

Exactly as Microsoft controlled access to PC users in the 90s.

The figures. The commitments are dizzy.

• Nvidia will invest up to 100,000 million in OpenAI, which undertakes to fill data centers with millions of its chips.
• OpenAI has signed 300,000 million with Oracle, which in turn spends billions in Nvidia processors.
• Monday closed Another agreement with AMD by tens of billions in exchange for Warrants to buy up to 10% of the company.
• Coreweave has OpenAi contracts for 22.4 billion.

The total exceeds billion dollars according to Financial Times. Even distributed in one or two decades, it is a bet that is only supported by absolute domain of the market.

Between the lines. The agreement with AMD replicates a historical play. In the 80s, IBM forced Intel to license its processor to a second manufacturer to avoid unique supplier dependence. AMD was that second.

OpenAI is using its dominant position in users to force alternatives to NVIDIA and guarantee negotiation power. If OpenNAI controls the software layer that matters, Nvidia pricing power is reduced. As Intel discovered that Microsoft, and not them, really controlled the value in the Wintel era.

The key is who captures the value:

1. During the PC era, Intel had huge benefits selling processors.
2. But more value accumulated in Microsoft, which controlled the operating system.
3. OpenAi is positioning to be that Microsoft, not that Intel.
4. That is why the agreement with AMD comes only weeks after Nvidia invested in Openai.

The message is clear: Openai controls access to users and that gives the definitive power in the value chain.

The threat. Every collapse if Openai does not achieve that domain. Oracle reported yesterday 14% margins in your business Cloud: Win 14 cents for each dollar. The action sank. Paulo Carvao, Harvard researcher, sees the bubble pattern Puntocom: “The circular agreements inflated artificial growth. IA companies have real products, but they spend much more than they can monetize,” he said in Bloomberg.

Yes, but. Altman has real users using the product every day. That is what the CEOS Puntocom did not have. Microsoft took a decade to match the Mac, but the two -way base of Apple’s technical superiority irrelevant. Chatgpt already has that advantage. And OpenAi is in explosive growth, not in decline.

Decisive moment. We are in bubble territory. The question is what lasting infrastructure will remain when some companies break. The chips do not last. Data centers do not justify pain either. The real and durable prize would be something like a great expansion in electricity generation for half a century.

OpenAi has become the axis of all the construction of AI infrastructure. Each announcement triggers the actions of its partners. Is THE NEW KING MIDAS DE THE BAG.

At stake. U Openai becomes Windows, or collapse. There is no middle ground. Altman said it this week: “Someday we have to be profitable. But now we are in the investment phase.” That phase exceeds the billion dollars. It only makes sense if Chatgpt becomes as inevitable as Windows in the 90s. It is the biggest bet in the history of technology.

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Outstanding image | Dima SolominMicrosoft