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They have been Several occasions in which the conflict after the Russian invasion in Ukraine seemed Go back to the pastat an era where technology did not dominate the battlefield, but the human through it. The effect of what has happened to east of Europe begins to have its echoes on several nations of the old continent. Conventional artillery and mines, for decades considered obsolete, have seen A resurgence That nobody seemed to glimpse, and now everyone wants to rearm.
A return to the past. As we said, the conflict in Ukraine has radically reconfigured Western understanding about The modern warrevealing the validity of weapons that for a long time were forgotten as vestiges of the past. Antipersonnel minesheavy artillery and non -guided ammunition have reappeared as key elements In a type of war that NATO and European armies had stopped planning: the large -scale land war.
For years, Western powers imagined the conflicts of the 21st century as technological, rapid and surgical clashes, starring reduced units and high precision weapons systems. It happens that the Ukrainian realitywith their stagnant fronts and prolonged fighting For territorial control, those assumptions have denied sharply.
The Treaty of Ottawa and Las Mines. In fact, one of the most visible effects of this doctrinal turn has been the decision of several European countries to abandon the Ottawa treaty of 1997, the same that prohibited the use, production and sale of antipersonnel mines. Who is it? Finland was the last In reverting his adhesion, adding to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, who had already announced their departure.
These nations, all neighbors of Russia or in their area of geopolitical influence, are actively preparing for undermine its bordersin an attempt to contain a possible Moscow military offensive. The reasons are clearly clear: the Use of mines in Ukraine It has demonstrated its effectiveness not only to stop advances, but to channel enemy troops to areas where they can be faced with greater guarantees of success. It is a territorial defense tactic that resurfaces in a conventional war context, precisely when it was believed to be overcome.
Artillery and unburgated ammunition, the resurgence. While the guided missile systems provided by NATO face problems in the face of the Russian capacities of Electronic interferencetraditional artillery, with simple and cheap projectiles, has charged New prominence. These ammunition, not depending on electronic signals, are immune to blockages or technological sabotages.
In addition, combined with modern surveillance tools (such as drones that identify real -time objectives), they have become extraordinarily lethal. Ukraine, in fact, has taken advantage of this synergy, adapting old technologies to the new battlefield. The result has been a war that advances very little in terms of territory, but that consumes huge amounts of projectiles and requires a sustained production that Europe was not prepared to assume.
Europe and industrial career. On the other sidewalk, the paradigm shift has exposed the fragility of war production capacities in Europe, although that is not quite news when the old continent has already talked about rearming. A report by the Royal United Services Institute criticized European governments for Trust blindly in which the private sector would solve the manufacturing needs of ammunition without having offered them incentives or favorable regulations.
This omission has had serious consequences: according to General Christopher CavoliSupreme Comandante Allied with NATO in Europe, Russia is on the way to accumulate projectile reserves three times higher to those of the United States and Europe together. He imbalance is alarmingespecially considering that the Ukrainian conflict does not show short -term resolution signs and that the current levels of ammunition consumption are unsustainable without an industrial restructuring.
Russia’s mirror. In this regard and According to CavoliRussia currently produces 250,000 artillery projectiles per month, which leads it to build that arsenal three times greater than the United States and Europe. Not just that. Cavoli’s testimony underlines a crucial point: while Russia is perceived in the West bogged down In a wear war, its defense machinery He has managed to adaptgrow and, in some aspects, strengthen in full conflict.
Moscow has been recovering its arsenals on all fronts (from ammunition to armored vehicles and troops), which strongly contrasts with the logistics and production difficulties faced by their adversaries. The estimate of Cavoli points to an annual manufacture of 1,500 tanks by Russia, in front of the 135 produced by the United States. In the last year, Russian troops would have lost Approximately 3,000 tanks9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems and more than 400 air defense systems, but would be completely replaced, keeping their land projection capacity intact.
Planning errors. Experts like Paul van Hooft, from the Think Tank Rand Europe, They explained to Insider that this lag is a direct consequence of three decades of strategic planning focused on asymmetric wars. Since the September 11 attacks, NATO designed its military operations thinking of insurgencies, terrorism and irregular forces, where neither heavy artillery nor mines seemed to have practical utility.
That vision led, according to the analyst, to the dismantling of traditional arsenals and the abandonment of terrestrial war doctrines, especially in Western Europe. However, the current conflict demands precisely opposite: territorial defense, sustained occupation of broad areas and classical deterrence capacity.
The balance between the future and the past. Mark Cancan, from Center for Strategic and International Studies, stressed that prolonged wars, once stabilized the front lines, make weapons such as artillery and mines not only useful, but dominant. While drones, artificial intelligence and other innovations continue to perform An important roledo not replace the volume of fire or logistics resistance that allow sustaining an offensive or defending a position for months.
In this regard, Cancan warns against excess confidence in futuristic war visions, many of them promoted by startups technological ones that compete to attract funds from the new defense budgets. Faced with this, the evidence seems to show that, at least for now, the war remains a matter of volume, physical resources and conventional abilities well managed. Ironically, if Europe wants to be prepared for the challenges of the 21st century, it seems that it will have to accept that the future of war is also fought with tools from the past.
Image | US Department
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