On April 20, 2023, the inaugural flight of SpaceX’s Starship took place. Less than four minutes later, the space vehicle explodedbut that was not what was amazing. The amazing thing was that all the company staff celebrated that explosion applauding wildlyas if it had been an extraordinary success. And the truth is that it was, because this launch was part of the company’s incremental philosophy: it doesn’t matter if the rockets explode, because (for the moment) that is what they have to do.
When the Blue Origin rocket exploded last weekthere was very little to celebrate. And that is a big difference between both companies.
This was not an explosion “by design”. There is a critical difference between the Starship prototype explosions and that of the New Glenn: intent. While SpaceX uses its tests to push its rockets to the limit and learn from those often controlled destructions, the New Glenn that exploded a few days ago was theoretically a production vehicle intended to complete operational missions. It’s one thing to lose a rocket with no payload that is designed to learn from mistakes, but quite another to lose one with a payload that real customers depend on.
Blue Origin runs out of ramp. The economic impact of this accident goes beyond the cost of the lost vehicle. The fundamental problem is that Blue Origin currently has only one operational launch pad for the New Glenn, the LC-36, and damage to the tower and support systems could paralyze the company’s activity for months. In a recent update the company indicates who is already working on that ramp “And we have a good reconstruction plan in place.”
Bad news for Kuiper. This explosion has also left in the air the deployment of the first 49 satellites of Amazon’s Juiper network, which depended on this launch. The company needs to put thousands of satellites into orbit to compete with Starlink, and every month of delay in the New Glenn is a month of advantage for Elon Musk.
NASA and the lunar calendar. But the New Glenn is also a key piece for the logistics of NASA’s Artemis missions. The explosion may force the space agency to rethink its priorities and even delay missions to the Moon planned for the coming years. NASA is running out of plans B, and is increasingly dependent on a single supplier (SpaceX) when that is precisely what Blue Origin could have mitigated.
Reliability pays off over time. We have a good example of SpaceX’s trial and error strategy with the Falcon 9. Today it is one of the most reliable rockets in the world with a success rate of over 99%: to date it has carried out 644 missions, of which 641 have been successful. Failures like that of September 2016 They served to learn and mature, and a decade later the Falcon 9 have become almost “boring” due to their reliability. Blue Origin seems to have wanted to skip stages by coming to market with a product that wanted to be perfect, but reality has shown that it is very difficult to achieve that reliability without stumbling. And this setback has been big.
The opportunity cost. It is estimated that the economic losses of the destroyed vehicle they hover 150 million dollars, but the true cost is in the penalties for delays and the loss of confidence of future customers. The technical and reputational debt that Blue Origin faces is notable, and it remains to be seen how a company that needed success more than ever will react.
Monopoly by accident. The clearest consequence of this setback is also striking: the winner is SpaceX, which is even more dominant than it was in the space launch market. The explosion of the New Gless is terrible news because it eliminates competition, and without a rival that can guarantee launches, access to space will continue to be a bottleneck controlled by a single company and, of course, by its founder, Elon Musk. The tycoon, yes, published a message in X upon hearing about the explosion saying “I’m sorry to see this, I hope you recover quickly.”
Image | Blue Origin
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