the arctic cold returns this week

You only have to look at the thermometers to be tempted to think that the “polar cold episode” has passed. And it would be logical to think so: temperatures have risen in almost the entire peninsula and this Monday a storm is sweeping the peninsula and leaving water in the entire northwestern quadrant.

However, it is a tremendous mistake. And we don’t say it, AEMET says it.

What is going to happen? As I say, according to the Agency“throughout the last week of November, masses of cold air will arrive again from high latitudes.” But the issue is more nuanced than it seems: the rain is going to persist until Wednesday-Thursday and, through the door that this storm will open, a mass of arctic air is going to burst through. What comes next is complicated.

After all, this “polar” episode has been a little more moderate than expected, but only by a matter of luck. Finally, meteorological chance moved the intrusion of air to the east and the result speaks for itself.

Last week (TropicalTidBits)

As explained M. Herrerawhat you see in the image is colder than in January in the central Mediterranean and warmer than in July in the eastern Mediterranean. If that finger of cold air had drifted further toward our position, we would have had a much worse time.

Logical uncertainties. What we know is that “the last week of November will be colder than usual for the time of year in most of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.” But there are many factors at play. We do not know for sure what the real impact will be.

There are things we do know. Because as we know, this type of cold air intrusion does not have much rain associated with it and, behind that front“it looks like we will be back in meteorological misery for a few days.” This makes for a bad end to November and a beginning to December that doesn’t look good at all.

Above all, because the shadow of sudden stratospheric warming still there. In fact, during these days, the surprise has been that the warming has been very very strong and, although the consequences are not clear (they never are), the possibility that we will experience a very cold blow in December.

Be that as it may, the main problem remains the same as always: yes, the rains of recent weeks They have helped us increase the dammed waterbut the trend is very worrying (we are using water much faster than in previous years) and if the winter is bad, the spring is going to be complicated.

And a lot.

Image | TropicalTidBits

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