Iran, OPEC+ and electric vehicles

Donald Trump has traveled to the Middle East to negotiate a nuclear agreement with Iran. If specified, the crude oil market fears an increase in supply in an already uncertain context.

An increase in offer. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reviewed Uploaded its world supply forecasts for this year, projecting an increase of 1.6 million barrels per day. This adjustment responds mainly to the increase in production by the members of the OPEC+, who have decided to dismantle their cuts in a more accelerated way.

Respond to several factors. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has The ability to increase Its production, while US producers face difficulties due to low prices. On the other hand, Russia has increased both its production and its exports, although its oil income has fallen to the lowest level since June 2023, According to Reuters.

Do I go back? The possibility of a nuclear agreement could lift the sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing a significant increase in supply, According to Wall Street Journal. In addition, this expectation has dropped the Brent crude prices 3.31 % to $ 63.90 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is around 61 dollars per barrel, barrel, barrel, barrel, According to eldiario.es.

A disruptive factor. In the midst of the debate, the International Energy Agency has put the focus in the sustained growth of sales of electric vehicles (VE). According to Wall Street JournalVE sales are growing at a dizzying pace and already represent a room of world car sales. This trend begins to feel in the oil sector and if this expansion continues, the demand for crude could be reduced by 5 million barrels per day (BPD) by 2030.

The forecasts. IEA has estimated that the oil demand will reach 103.9 million barrels per day (BPD), but this growth will decrease in the coming months. On the offer, countries outside the OPEC+ such as Brazil, China and Canada have planned to increase their production by 1.3 million BPD this year. If this trend continues, the market can go into surplus situation.

Changes in the global market. As explained by a combination of factors, it could push the downward prices: the possible return of the Iranian crude, the increase in the supply of the OPEC+ and the unstoppable boom of the electric vehicles. This added pressure generates uncertainty in an already volatile market. In the midst of this scenario, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia will play a crucial role in the coming months. Their strategic decisions could tip the balance between supply and demand, marking the direction of the global market in a context of economic slowdown.

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