In addition to a miracle… and that not all those at the top win (between fifth and fifteenth position), The odds for Real Madrid to qualify for the Champions League, among the top 8 in the table, are very tight..
The first favors began on Tuesday, with the epic victory of the Barcelona facing Benfica (5-4), the defeat of Bayer Leverkusen in view of Atlético de Madrid (2-1) and especially that of Liverpool against Lille (2-1). Because they are direct rivals when it comes to counting points, these results increased the odds for the team he leads. Carlo Ancelotti.
In fact, the tie Juventus and the defeat of Borussia Dortmund against Bologna they also serve Real Madrid. But there are many games ahead and The first requirement that the Spanish team must meet is to beat Salzburg this Wednesday and Brest next week. If you do not win both duels, you will not be able to qualify among the top eight.
The results that Real Madrid needs to advance to the 8th round of the Champions League directly
This Wednesday 9 matches will be played and Real Madrid, from the Santiago Bernabéu, will have to pay attention to other duels. The most important will be Feyenoord – Bayern Münich, Leipzig – Sporting Lisbon, Milan – Girona, Sparta Prague – Inter Milan and Shakhtar – Brest.
Real Madrid in 22nd place, but If they beat Salzburg and some results merge, they could reach sixteenth place, leaving the rest of the aspirations for next week.
Real Madrid needs these results today:
- Shakhtar’s victory against Brest
- Leipzig victory against Sporting or draw
- Sparta Prague victory against Inter or draw
- Bayern Münich’s victory against Feyenoord
- Girona victory against Milan or draw
If the forecast is fulfilled, according to an online calculator that the Marca newspaper has availableReal Madrid would reach 16th place with 12 points, while Atalanta, who beat Sturm Graz 5-0, is in fifth position with 14 points.
And what results does Real Madrid need on the last date of the Champions League group?
Basically, defeat Brest and not let everyone at the top win, especially: Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter Milan, Monaco, Lille, Borussia Dortmund and Juventus. However, some of these clubs play at home and against modest rivals.
Assuming that Leverkusen wins at home against Sparta Prague and Barcelona defeats Atalanta in Montjuic, perhaps the “easiest” matches to predict, in the rest of the matches ANYTHING can happen.
The results that would classify Real Madrid on the last date:
- Victory or draw for Benfica against Juventus
- Draw between Inter Milan and Monaco (the victory of either would hurt them)
- Victory or draw for Feyenoord against Lille
- Victory or draw for Girona against Arsenal (unlikely)
- Win or draw for Dinamo Zagreb against Milan (unlikely, but the Croatian club is local)
- Victory or draw for Shakhtar against Dortmund
- Barcelona victory over Atalanta
But the margin of error is VERY small. If Juventus wins and there is a winner between Inter and Monaco, Real Madrid could only be ninth, unless Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen lose.
And in the event that Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen win and there is a winner between Inter and Monaco, but Juventus falls or draws against Benfica, Real Madrid’s classification could depend on Barcelona defeating Atalanta.
The number of goals scored and conceded, which results in the goal difference, could also be an ultimately determining factor, but difficult to predict at this time. Real Madrid has it complicated, very complicated, but mathematics keeps it alive.
Why Real Madrid seeks to be among the top 8
With this new format in the Champions League, the top eight teams advance directly to the round of 16, an objective that Real Madrid seeks in this initial phase.
In case of finishing between 9th and 24th place, the whites would have to play a kind of direct eliminatory, round trip, to decide the others classified for the round of 16, where the competition continues with the usual format.
If they fall in this instance, there will be no consolation ticket to the Europa League, but rather they will be definitively out of European competitions.
