Iran has just crossed the great energy red line. Türkiye is the first victim of a blackout that is already looking at Europe

We had been holding our breath for weeks, accepting the logistical tension in the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. However, the war has crossed an irreversible red line. We have gone from a trade blockade to the physical destruction of the world’s energy engine, and the consequences are already being felt in the global economy.

The blow to the energetic heart. It is not just any objective. As explained Deutsche Welle, South Pars is the largest natural gas reserve in the world – shared with Qatar, which calls its part North Dome – and contains enough gas to supply the world’s needs for 13 years. It is the basis of Iran’s energy survival.

The response from Tehran was withering and expansive. As detailed in the Wall Street JournalIran did not limit itself to responding to Israel, but attacked vital infrastructure in neighboring countries, launching missiles against the gigantic Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar (the largest liquefied natural gas facility in the world) and refineries in Saudi Arabia. In the midst of this war chaos, Iran turned off the tap: Tehran suddenly paralyzed its natural gas exports to Türkiye.

Türkiye in the eye of the hurricane. The cutoff to Türkiye is not an anecdote, it is the symptom of a systemic crisis. According to the data provided by BloombergLast year, Ankara imported around 13% or 14% of its total gas needs (about 7 billion cubic meters) from Iran.

To the gallery, the Turkish government tries to project calm. How to collect ReutersTurkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has categorically assured that “there are no supply problems” and that the country’s storage facilities are at 71% of their capacity. Furthermore, the minister insists that oil dependence of the Middle East is a “manageable 10%” and they are already accelerating diversification agreements with giants such as TotalEnergies, Exxon and Shell.

The markets are not optimistic. The experts consulted by Middle East eye They point out that Turkey has alternatives – such as increasing the flow from Russia or Azerbaijan – but the closing of the Iranian tap will force Ankara to compete fiercely in the international market for emergency shipments of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Panic reaches Europe. And this is where the domino effect hits us directly. As Türkiye goes on a desperate hunt for LNG ships, the pressure on prices becomes unsustainable for the Old Continent. The day after the start of the conflict, the price of gas rose 55%. However, in the midst of this European chaos, one country is resisting the challenge much better than its neighbors: Spain.

Thanks to a massive deployment of solar and wind energy, our country manages to cushion the initial blow by sinking prices during daylight hours. But the transition is painfully incomplete and we are not invulnerable. As analyst Antonio Aceituno, from Tempos Energía, warns, the Spanish balance is broken when evening falls. When the sun disappears, gas combined cycles begin to cover demand, returning tension to prices. It is empirical proof that, without massive batteries to guard the sun, at eight in the afternoon we are still at the mercy of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. As the expert Gerard Reid reflects in Euronewsit is preferable to depend on China to import a solar panel once every 25 years, than to depend on gas from the Persian Gulf every day.

Broken diplomacy. Arab governments are “furious” because they feel the US-Israeli strategy has put a target on their backs. For its part, Qatar has called the attacks on its facilities a “dangerous and irresponsible step” and a direct threat to its national security.

In the midst of this powder keg, Washington’s role is erratic. President Donald Trump took to social media to deny prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Pars. However, Trump did not hesitate to issue a brutal ultimatum to Tehran: if it attacks Qatar again, the United States will “massively blow up the entire” Iranian oilfield.

The scars of a systemic war. As my colleague Miguel Jorge analyzes well,the dynamic that has been activated is dangerously reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War. It is no longer about destroying military capabilities or political pressure; We are facing a war against the very infrastructure that supports the states.

The apparent lightness with which this conflict has developed has dragged us into a dead end. Iran has shown that it does not need to win a conventional military war; It is enough for him to set the energetic heart of the planet on fire. Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow, the material reality is inescapable. Charred refineries and dry pipelines to Türkiye are not rebuilt with signatures on a piece of paper. The scar on the world’s infrastructure will take years to heal, and the crisis that we had been avoiding for months has already detonated irreversibly.

Image | Hamed Malekpour

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