Donald Trump’s return to the White House has marked a turning point in the relationship held by the US and China. The commercial and technological war between these two powers It comes from afarbut The aggressive policy of tariffs that has deployed, although even in a little consistent way, the US administration has fueled the loop. The tension between countries led by Xi Jinping and Donald Trump is maximum, and Some experts believe That at the current situation the probability that China decides to invade Taiwan is higher than ever.
In the 50s of the last century China was a very different country from the current one. He Chinese Communist Party Led by Mao Zedong he had defeated the nationalists who made up the Kuomintang after almost three decades of armed conflict. Imperial power He had disappeared and the country had embarked on very deep structural changes that culminated in the birth of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The members of the Kuomintang retired to Taiwan that same year, and since then the shadow of the invasion looms over this island.
Foreign investors in Taiwan recognize that they do not have a plan B
“If an aggression against Taiwan occurs the investment decision becomes binary: either we stay exposed and absorb extreme volatility, or we quickly leave to preserve capital.” These words Steve Lawrence has pronounced themInvestment Director of the Swiss company Balfour Capital Group. From his statement it follows with absolute clarity that foreign investors who have opted for Taiwanese companies do not know how to proceed if there is finally an armed conflict between China and Taiwan.
“TSMC is so great that investors’ expectations argue that the US will defend Taiwan. And he will do it strongly”
The panorama paints badly. According to Reuters Foreign investors have retired almost 11,000 million dollars from the Taiwan sharing park during this year due to the fear of impact that tariffs on the global economy will have and in the relationship that USA and China support. The government of Joe Biden formalized that if China intervened militarily in Taiwan, the US would respond. However, the administration led by Donald Trump has not yet confirmed whether to defend the island militarily in the hypothetical scenario that China chose to invade it.
Anyway, this situation in which instability prevails mainly condition a Taiwanese company: TSMC. This company is The largest semiconductor manufacturer on the planetand, therefore, it is Taiwan’s authentic jewel. In fact, he greatly supports his economy. This company quotes both in the Taipéi stock market and in the New York and the stock market brought the stock market alone at the beginning of this year. “TSMC is so great that the expectations of investors argue that the US will defend Taiwan. And it will do it strongly,” has declared Mikesh DaveInvestment Director of Araval Asset Management, a global arbitration background based in Singapore.
Elbridge Colby’s position, one of Donald Trump’s trusted advisors, is aligned with this strategy. This tweet Posted by him In May 2023, it clearly reflects what the policy that defends with the purpose of deterring the Xi Jinping government: “We would be crazy if we allowed us TSMC falls intact to China” According to Gina Raimondothe former Secretary of Commerce, “USA buys 92% of her avant -garde chips from TSMC in Taiwan.”
Colby’s tweet that I have mentioned in the previous paragraph suggests that the US should do everything in his hand to prevent China from appropriating the plants that TSMC has in Taiwan. However, during the last two years Colby has not been satisfied with insinuating this idea; He has publicly declared That if China invades Taiwan what the US should do is destroy the TSMC factories and not allow this initiative to fall on the Taiwanese government.
Image | TSMC
More information | Reuters
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