This Friday a meeting will take place with historical character depending on what is remembered (or not). Finally, and if nothing twists, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the heads of state of the United States and Russia, They will gather in Alaska With the Ukraine War as the main conductive thread. One thing should be quite clear: whatever they are talking about, we should keep calm and wait for a second translation after the first statements.
An error He already put an end to the contest a few days ago.
The misunderstanding. The scene took place last week and the German medium Bild. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff erroneously interpreted Vladimir Putin’s statements during his meeting at the Kremlin. The Russian president maintained his goal of obtaining total control of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporiyia and Jersón, offering only a partial high in the attacks (limited to not hitting energy infrastructure or large cities in the rear), but without contemplating a high fire.
Washington, meanwhile, had proposed to freeze the war on the current front line in exchange for broadly lifting the sanctions and establishing new economic agreements with Moscow, an initiative that was rejected by the Kremlin. What happened? That Witkoff confused the Russian demand of “peaceful withdrawal” of Ukrainians in occupied territories with a supposed Russian withdrawal of those same areas, a carafal error that, according to officials Ukrainians and Germansdemonstrates ignorance and incompetence in territorial matters of Washington.
Diplomatic repercussions. The episode, apparently, It was discussed In a recent night videoconference between Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and European partners. The meeting left the Europeans already Ukraine surprised with an unprecedented truce of war. A situation that, once understood, gave way to the feeling that the Trump administration does not have a unified vision of the situation, with the confusion of Witkoff as Inexplicable and central factor.
In addition, a Criteria difference: Rubio defended the direct involvement of Europe in the negotiating process, while Vance and Witkoff preferred to just inform the allies of the steps Trump will adopt.
A history of disagreements. Had a few hours ago The Financial Times that previous summits between Trump and Putin have been marked by unusual dynamics and episodes that feed the perception of a constant tactical advantage for the Russian leader.
From Your first encounter At the Hamburg G20 Summit in 2017 (where Trump confiscated The notes of his interpreter and held private conversations without the presence of US officials) until the meeting of Helsinki in 2018When he publicly questioned the conclusion of his own intelligence services on Russian interference in the 2016 elections, the employer has been of interactions without transparencyAcritic acceptance of Putin’s statements and absence of internal control mechanisms. Other contacts, such as in Vietnam or in the G20 of Buenos Aires, They repeated the format of informal exchanges and without registration, reinforcing the image of a Trump more inclined to the personal relationship than to the structured confrontation with its counterpart.
Putin tactics and risks. Analysts and veterans of negotiations with the Kremlin, as the former French president François Hollande, They warn that Putin combines an exhaustive domain of the technical and legal details with a strategy of “professional lie” and manipulation of the times. Among his methods is Deliberately lengthened Conversations with extensive stories, introduce half large truths and offer minimal concessions to appear movement without modifying their substantial position.
Past examples They include denying any relationship with safe separatists in Donbás despite the evidence of military and financial support, or rejecting international border monitoring claiming that there were no violations. This style, together with your absence of pressure internal policy and its experience of decades, contrasts with a Trump described by European interlocutors as emotional, impatient and little inclined to factual analysis, which It makes vulnerable to the biases that Putin can explode.
Demands and position of Ukraine. President Volodimir Zelenski insists In participating directly in the conversations and has declared that it is willing to stop the fire, but not to give in occupied territory. Trump, who has suggested a possible “exchange of territories for the benefit of both”, contemplated a trilateral summit, although finally Keep the bilateral requested by Putin as initial format.
Vice President JD Vance admits That an eventual agreement will leave both parties unsatisfied, but acknowledges that it works to coordinate agendas that allow the three leaders to sit.
Expectations The Alaska meetingfirst since Trump’s return to the White House, occurs at a time when the US president no longer Face the limitations that imposed in his first mandate a vigilant congress and advisors who tried to channel the relationship with Moscow. Now acts with a much greater marginbacked by a small team and without significant internal counterweights, while Putin continues to operate in an environment where It has no rivals immediate.
Observers like Kirill Rogov They anticipate that the Kremlin will try to persuade Trump to accept his narrative and stop the support of Ukraine, a strategic objective that does not require substantive concessions. Although the Summer Russian Offensive It has had limited results and external factors (such as Trump’s threat to impose tariffs to the Indian oil) They could give him incentives to dialogue, the general expectation is that Putin will seek to win time, while Trump will prioritize get an agreement that can present as personal victory in foreign policy.
And, in the background, please there is someone to translate what they agree on.
Image | Trump White House Archced
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