The collapse of shelter values ​​such as the US dollar and debt

The American treasure bonds, considered for decades the safest asset in the world, are suffering The biggest mass sale since 2001when Puntocomwith yields that exceed 4.5% in the ten -year bonus and touch 5% in thirty years.

This shake is not a simple technical adjustment. This directly questions the dollar and the US debt as a safe refuge in moments of global economic uncertainty, precisely when Trump’s commercial war with China and other countries reaches historical levels with the tariffs of Up to 104%.

Why is it important. The collapse of the American bond market also has implications for Europe and Spain. If investors lose confidence in the dollar and American bonds, two contradictory scenarios are possible:

• European risk premiums could shoot themselves by infection, making financing for governments and Spanish companies.
• Or paradoxically, Europe could benefit if investors look for alternatives to the dollar, lowering our debt.

The current situation. What began as a technical problem in the bond market has become a crisis of trust. The coverage funds carried out by arbitration operations with American bonds (known as “Basis Trade“) are being forced to sell in mass, shooting the yields and causing a vicious circle.

• The ten -year bonus from the United States has gone from a 3.87% yield to early April to More than 4.5% In just a week.
• The bonus at thirty years has touched 5%levels not seen in more than a decade.
• The type curve has been invested extremely, with a difference of 30 basic points between two and ten years bonds in just a few hours.

Between the lines. This phenomenon is the structural change reflex. After decades as an indisputable world reserve currency, The dollar and the American bonds are being questioned as a result of Trump’s aggressive tariff policy.

China, Japan and the United Kingdom, main foreign American debt holders And precisely countries especially affected by tariffs, they can be using their bond reserves as an economic weapon, selling them in retaliation.

At stake. The stability of the global financial system now depends on how central banks respond. The Federal Reserve could be forced to make emergency cuts in interest rates or implement programs for buying bonds similar to Those used during the 2008 crisis.

If these measures fail, the consequences would be serious: increasing credit for companies and families, destabilization of stock markets (some already vulnerable), and potential global recession just when the economy recovered from Post-pandemic inflation.

Meanwhile in Europe. Here the public debt yields have also triggered sympathy. British bonds have reached 5.6% yields – levels not seen since 1998–and the pressure on the Spanish and European debt is inevitable if the situation continues to deteriorate.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England could be forced to advance or intensify its type cuts to contain damage, especially if the European economy begins to show signs of contagion.

• For Spain, with A public debt exceeding 100% of GDPa sustained increase in financing costs would threaten the government’s budgetary and investment plans. Just when they are most needed to cushion the impact of the commercial war.

The money trail. The financial world has taken a historic turn in just one week. If the American treasure bonds cease to be the safe shelter par excellence, we enter an unknown territory for the global economic system.

When what seemed impossible happens, panic can become a self -fulfilling prophecy. It does not seem to make sense and ask whether there will be consequences or not, but rather how deep they will be and who will pay the invoice.

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