Between Galicia and Tehran there are more than 5,000 km and the situation experienced in the Iberian Peninsula bears little or no resemblance to that which crosses the Persian Gulf. However, a server here, who writes these lines from Galician lands, has found that the situation in the Middle East has turned his travel plans upside down. And he is not the only one. Throughout Europe (and beyond) thousands of people are rethinking their vacations due to instability in the Gulf, which already threatens alter the flows of international tourism in the short term.
The reason is very simple: the Middle East is not only a key player in the oil market (something already crucial in itself), it is also a key player in the map of air interconnections, especially between Europe and Asia. And that affects those who plan to fly this year to Vietnam, Japan or Thailand, among other destinations.
A turbulent sector. Beyond Iranian politics, the energy market or the general threat that the rise in crude oil ended up moving to the shopping cart, there is a sector that is suffering in a very special way from what is happening in the Middle East: tourism. The Gulf is not only one of the great lungs of the oil industry, it is also a crucial piece on the tourism map.
Firstly, due to the growing attractiveness of destinations like Dubai, especially among expats. Second (and this is the key) because in recent decades the region has managed to establish itself as the great connecting node between Europe, Asia and Africa.
How important the Gulf is to the operations of international airlines became clear in the days following the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Tehran’s response, which launched attacks on its neighbors in retaliation for the support they provide to the United States, left out of play to airports such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha or Kuwait (among others), unleashing what some analysts consider the biggest crisis aeronautics since the pandemic.
Was it that serious? Yes. And so we tell you at the time. That airfields like Dubai had to close their doors for security reasons affected thousands of Western expats who suddenly found themselves without options to return to their countries. The situation reached the point that some drove for hours to try their luck in Oman. Others paid large sums to charter jets.
The fact is that the expats were not the only ones harmed. The ‘shock wave’ of the war also hit Western tourists who were on vacation in Asia and overnight they found that the Middle East terminals where they had to make a stopover to return to Europe (Doha, Dubai, Abu Dhabi) were blocked. A young Spanish woman complained in X those days of being “stuck” in Thailand. “The flights are for 4,000 euros or there is overbooking“, he lamented. The Government ended repatriating tourists from the Middle East.
And the hangover came. This was more than a week ago, but that does not mean that the waters have returned to normal in airport operations, much less in the tourism sector. To begin with, because part of the Gulf is still an untouchable area for airlines. It comes with taking a look at Flight Radar’s flight monitoring maps to see the huge gap which remains open mainly on Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan.
Emirates advertisement.
Airspace slopes. The reality as of March 17 is that the war continues to condition airline operations in the area. In your last part Regarding traffic, OPS Group confirmed on Monday that a large part of the airspace in the Middle East remains marked by conflict, either closed (Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Syria) or subject to more or less restricted operations, as is the case above all in Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar.
In fact the platform remember that the most common corridor in the Persian Gulf for flights between Europe and Asia remains greatly altered by the war, which is leading airlines to look for alternative routes, either diverting north, towards the Caucasus, or south, through Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Oman.
What do the companies say? The Middle East not only stands out for its geographical position. It is also home to some of the most important airlines in the sector, such as Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad. And their grills are still far from being normalized. Just yesterday Al Jazeera informed that Qatar Airways has announced a program of limited flights to and from Doha due to the war. In fact, its operations will remain restricted at least until March 28.
“Qatar Airways’ scheduled flight operations remain temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatari airspace,” explains the company. “The airline will resume operations once the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announces the full and safe reopening of Qatari airspace.”
She’s not the only one. Etihad Airways too indicates on their website which, at least for now, “operates a limited program of commercial flights between Abu Dhabi and several key destinations.” It even gives the option to change reservations at no extra cost.
Qatar announcement.
“A reduced schedule”. Another company that has not returned to normal is Emirates. In the last hours I published an update in which it clarifies the status of its flight schedule: “Following the partial opening of the region’s airspace, Emirates operates with a reduced flight schedule.”
Lufthansa has also suspended operations with Dubai, Dabi, Amman and Ebril until next week. Connections with Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran remain marked and in some cases will not be recovered until late April. In general, the specialized environment Condé Nast Traveler informed on Friday the 13th that there are a significant number of airlines with their operations altered in one way or another.
What can we expect now? The situation in hubs like Dubai has improved since the total blockade that followed the attack on February 28, but the panorama continues not to be what it was before that date. Dubai Civil Aviation Authority speaks already openly of a “gradual resumption of some flights”.
The question remains how this scenario will affect demand and to what extent it will influence Europeans who are planning their vacations. For now there are experts who they ask for caution when canceling flights so as not to lose rights. Airlines could also direct part of their interconnecting traffic to safer airports, such as Istanbul, hubs European or other areas of Africa, consolidating the air traffic diversions that PAHO already appreciates.
Lufthansa advertisement.
The great risk. Not everything is logistics. The tourism industry relies on another great pillar: trust. When traveling, people want to feel comfortable and safe. For years the Arab Emirates took care of that value until it became a rising destination among Westerners, but two weeks of war have come to change the landscape. And that’s something that doesn’t just apply to the UAE.
Does Mabrian calculate the “safety perception index” from some countries affected by the shock wave of the conflict and found a surprise: a drop in the confidence with which travelers view Bahrain, Oman and Qatar. What is striking is that the feeling of reliability has also suffered in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and even further afield, Egypt and Türkiye, two tourist powers.
Perceptions are volatile, they change quickly (the war in Iran is good proof), but taking into account that many families are already planning their vacations for the year, there are those who anticipate that part of the demand will swing towards destinations that are perceived to be safer, such as the Canary Islands or the Balearic Islands.
Could there be more consequences? That the Middle East continues to have blocked spaces and others that are not yet functioning 100% is relevant for several reasons. Banned spaces can be equivalent to detours in flights and detours in turn translate into greater distances traveled and, therefore, fuel consumption. Why is that relevant? Because of the risk that it ends up affecting costs.
Images | Umair Dingmar (Unsplash) and Flight Radar
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