The existential battle between traditionalists and progressive for the control of the Church

We have not even reached his Ecuador, but 2025 has made it clear since it will not be a year to get bored. At Geopolitical tensions who have followed the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the Rearm of Europe and one Commercial War That is aggravated between recession drums, a new front has just been added: the Vatican. Francisco’s death It opens the debate (latent for a long time) on who will happen at the head of the Catholic Church. And while the process is not new or unknown, it does arrive at a sensitive moment in the Vatican, with a clear (and indisposed) tension between the most reformist and the traditionalist wing.

The big question is … What to expect from now on?

Pope Francis (1936-2025). The news He advanced it This morning the Vatican. Pope Francis has died. He has done it at 88, at his Vatican residence, after 12 years of pontificate and one Last reappearance public during Holy Week celebrations. For history there is one of its last public appearances In company of the US vice president, JD Vance.

His death activates the Funeral ritual Approved by Francisco himself in 2024: wake, funeral, burial and really important (at least for the future of the Catholic Church), the cardinal conclave that will decide who will happen to the front of the Vatican. A priori the summit should begin in 15 or 20 daysalthough the runrún of names and pools about who will be the new pontiff It takes time ringing. In fact, the succession even He has felt In online betting houses.

Who will relieve it? The million dollar question. And without an answer right now. What is handled are some names, figures and trends. For example, The BBC remembers That right now there are 252 Catholic cardinals, of which 138 meet the age requirements to be eligible in the vote of the new Pontiff. The rest can participate in the debate on who should take office.

Another relevant fact is that of those 138 ecclesiastical highs that may exercise the right to vote during the conclave, much, much, about 110were named by Francisco himself and the group as a whole will be more diverse than the one who participated in previous summits. History also tells us that, although Francisco was of Argentine origin (it was The first American Pope) and a Polish and a German preceded it, most potatoes to date (217 of 266) They have been Italian.

Names on the table. Beyond the figures (which are nothing other than that: figures), are the names. Throughout the last months already measure that Francisco’s health became more fragile, in papal pools a few names have sounded. There has been talk of the Filipino Luis Antonio Taglethe Ghanaian Peter Turkssonthe Portuguese José Tolentino de Mendonçathe Italians Pietro Parolin and Matteo Zuppithe Hungarian Peter Erdothe Dutchman Willem Eijkthe American R. Leo Burkethe German Gerhard Müllerthe Maltese Mario Grech or the Canadian Marc Ouellet.

Some have sounded more strength, others with less, and it is expected that noise will increase throughout the next few days and weeks. Even with speculation about names of Spanish prelates. If there is something really important and that it can already be valued at this point in the process, it is that in that extensive list of possible candidates two different trends can be identified that also reflect the drive within the Church: there are names that connect with the most open and progressive current, such as Tagle’s, and other conservative profile, Burke’s case. There are those who even add A third group: The establishment Vatican.

Of names … and currents. If the figures are just figures, the names are just that: names. Much more interesting (at least at this point in the process) is the current of thought in which they are framed within the Vatican and if they show a more conservative or opening profile. Especially since the new Pope will have to complete a lot of the initiatives initiated by Francisco and for years the Church clearly transparent the different sensibilities that live in the institution, with obvious frictions for example In Germany either USA.

The scenario is so complex and so relevant will be the figure of the new pontiff, that there are those who already He wonders openly to what extent Francisco has been in charge of leaving “armored” the changes he promoted during his pontificate, in which the debate was opened on some of the hottest issues of the Church: the paperthe Women’s figurehomosexuality (both Your presence In the bosom of the Church as the blessing of Couples) and the fight against abuse.

Two examples: Germany and USA. The above are some of the most controversial issues in the Church and with which Francisco I has had to Bregar in his pontificate. To understand to what extent they raise internal differences in the Vatican, to what extent different mentalities coexist in its bosom and (above all) the capital importance that the next Pope will have, it is good to remember the challenges raised in recent years by the bishops of Germany and the US.

In Germany the progressive Catholic movement Synod road impulse years ago A reformist wave focused on issues such as the blessings of gay couples, the ordination of women such as deacons or the marriage of priests that caused Certain friction (some Very popular) Among some Germanic and Rome bishops. “You cannot continue as until now, it is about transmitting the message of the Gospel here and now, and not always looking at the past,” argued in 2022 The president of the German Episcola Conference, Georg Gaetzing, reluctant to stop blessing believers of the same sex despite the repairs of Rome.

Eeuu earrings… Francisco has also had to deal with the opposition from the US Curia. Although for a different reason. There the one that has left headlines is the ultraconservative faction, headed by bishops and cardinals very critical of the opening movements of Bergoglio, such as Raymond Leo Burke or Joseph Strickland. The first has stood out above all for its closed opposition to the approach to homosexuals or divorced. Even has shown his rejection to give communion to those politicians who support abortion.

For the future Pope US it will be a key scenario for other reasons, beyond the position of the Church’s ultraconservative wing. PEW Restoch Center data They demonstrate that the decline of Christianity in the US has stopped (the change in trend came in 2019) and has even reversed with a slight increase in its global weight since 2022. Today today The Wall Street Journal Precise In addition, this trend coincides with a rebound in conservatism in Maga times.

… And also from Asia and Africa. America and Europe are not in any case the only scenarios of which the successor of Francisco I. The Holy See has been in a slow approach To China. In fact he does less than a year The Pope He came to recognize His desire to travel to the country.

The truth is that as the Catholic Church has lost bellows in Europe and America focused the focus on new horizons, especially in Asia and Africa. In 2017 it was calculated that in the world there were around 1.3 billion Baptized Catholics, almost 300 million resided in Europe, compared to 145 from Asia, 233 of Africa and more than 630 in America. These three areas, Africa, Asia and America, were also those that experienced a greater increase in faithful, with percentages of between 8.8% and 26.1% since 2010, compared to the stagnation registered in Europe.

Image | Mario Duran-Ortiz (Flickr)

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