that the war in Ukraine has reached the Mediterranean

For months, the so-called “tanker war” between Ukraine and Russia had remained contained in a relatively limited space: the Black Sea and its immediate accesses. There, attacks with naval and aerial drones against ships linked to Moscow had become a logical extension of the conflict, an indirect but effective way to hit Russian energy revenues without directly confronting its war fleet. Until now.

An invisible line. Everything has taken a 180 degree turn with the attack against the oil tanker Qendil in the Mediterranean, which represents an unprecedented qualitative leap. Not only because of the distance (more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukrainian territory), but because it shows that kyiv is willing to carry out this campaign much further of the traditional theater of operations, calling into question the idea that European sea routes were safe from war.

The fleet in the shadows. He Qendilan Oman-flagged crude oil tanker built in 2006, was not chosen at random. Before heading to India it had departed from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, one of the key outlets for Russian oil to the global market. Both the European Union and the United Kingdom consider it part of the called “shadow fleet”the network of ships that Russia uses to avoid sanctions through flag changes, opaque ownership structures and routes designed to dilute legal responsibilities.

For Ukraine, these ships are not simple commercial assets, but a direct extension of the Russian war efforta source of income that fuels the war. Hence, the Security Service of Ukraine has defended the attack as a legitimate objective under the law of armed conflict.

A surgical operation. According to SBU sourcesthe attack was an “unprecedented special operation”, carried out by its Alpha Special Group using bomber-type aerial drones. The broadcast images They show munitions falling onto the ship’s deck from a hexacopter, pointing to a short-range attack launched from a nearby platform, probably a ship.

Tracking data indicate that the tanker was sailing between Malta and Crete when it made a sharp turn and changed course towards Port Said, Egypt, a move that reinforces the idea that something abnormal happened at that point in the journey. Although the ship was empty at the time of the attack (reducing the environmental risk), the SBU holds which suffered critical damage that leaves it unusable for its original function.

The message. Beyond the physical damage, the blow has enormous symbolic and strategic value. It comes on the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that it would cut off Ukraine’s access to the sea in retaliation for the attacks on the shadow fleet.

kyiv’s response seems clear: if Russia can finance its war by exporting oil along increasingly distant routes, those routes too can become a battlefield. The SBU statement That Ukraine “will strike the enemy anywhere in the world” is not just rhetoric, it is a signal to shipowners, insurers and governments that the conflict is no longer limited to a specific sea.

Echoes of other wars. This type of attack is reminiscent of the covert war that for years Iran and Israel have fought against merchant ships in the Middle East, a campaign of targeted sabotage designed to send political messages without escalating into open conflict.

Everything indicates that Ukraine has studied that model and it is adapting it to its own war, using relatively cheap drones to impose disproportionate costs on the adversary. The possibility of using drones in the future of greater scopeeven with satellite links like Starlink, suggests that the radius of action could be expanded even further.

Maritime consequences. He attack on Qendil introduces a new factor of uncertainty in the Mediterranean. Although the target was directly linked to Russia, the simple fact that armed drones can operate against merchant ships in such busy waters forces the maritime sector to rethink security measures, routes and insurance.

For Moscow, the message is disturbing: its floats in the shadowestimated at more than a thousand ships and essential to sustain its crude oil exports, is no longer protected by geographical distance. For Europe, it is an uncomfortable reminder that a war that began on land and in the Black Sea is beginning to cast its shadow over one of the planet’s main trade corridors.

A conflict that expands. Plus: the attack against the Qendil is not just a tactical action, but an implicit statement that the maritime war is entering a new phase. Ukraine demonstrates that it can bring economic and military pressure to spaces that until now They were considered peripheralwhile Russia threatens to respond without making clear how.

Between them, the Mediterranean appears suddenly as a potential scenario of a confrontation that no one has formally declared, but that is already beginning to be felt in commercial navigation. As so many other times After this war, the border between the military and the civil becomes more blurred, and the feeling that there are no completely safe areas begins to extend far beyond the front.

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