The Third Gulf War is here, and while financial markets cling to the hope of a quick resolution, the physical reality tells a much darker story. The world is currently facing the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. As detailed The New York Timesbased on the analyzes of energy expert Jason Bordoff, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has taken about 20 million barrels per day off the board, which represents 20% of world consumption.
To put this in perspective, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recalls that the historic Arab embargo of 1973 “barely” withdrew 4.5 million barrels per day. The logistical, political and infrastructure damage that Operation Epic Fury has unleashed in the Persian Gulf is so profound that, regardless of what is signed in the dispatches, it will take years to return to normality.
The new global funnel. Even if the war ended today and the Strait were 100% reopened, untangling the monumental logjam would take months. As Rory Johnston, oil market researcher, explains, to the magazine New Statesman“we are talking about two to three months just to renormalize the global system.” Oil tankers are piled up on both sides of the strait, and a sudden restart would cause a collapse at unloading terminals, reminiscent of the worst bottlenecks of the Covid-19 pandemic.
It won’t be suddenly. To this we must add a key factor: the ships will not sail again the day peace is signed. Maritime insurers will require months of proof that the Strait is safe before returning to cover oil tankers without imposing unaffordable premiums. But the situation is even more complex. As detailed in a recent analysis by my colleague Miguel Jorge in Xatakathe dynamics of the Strait have drastically mutated.
Iran has turned this artery into a kind of maritime “VIP discotheque.” It is no longer a free international transit route, but rather a selective access system where Tehran decides who passes. While US allies and Israel are banned, countries like Spain – which refused to participate in the military coalition – have received “passes” for their ships.
The root of the problem. If the recovery will be so slow it is, fundamentally, because the infrastructure is burning. Unlike previous conflicts, Iran’s strategy is based on an asymmetric war that seeks to destroy the energy pillars of its neighbors. The most devastating example is found in Qatar, where the Iranian drone attack on the Ras Laffan facilities—the largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export plant in the world— has caused damage which will take between three and five years to repair. Furthermore, we must add temporary closures in Saudi refineries like Ras Tanura that guarantee long-term disruption.
The domino effect has already reached the earth. Given the impossibility of removing the crude oil by sea, the storage tanks are bursting. Iraq has been forced to close wells and cut production by 70% simply because there is nowhere to put the oil. This is what is known in the industry as “locked-in” oil, and reactivating all that stopped machinery requires weeks of complex technical work.
The specter of chronic inflation. The impact of this paralysis goes far beyond the gasoline pump and will condition the economy for the next five years. As he warns The Economistthe sustained rise in energy prices threatens to entrench global inflation, quickly pushing it to an unbearable 5% or 6%. This means that the cost of living, interest rates and commodity prices will be marked by this crisis for years, slowing down any attempt at real recovery.
Added to this is a silent time bomb: food. Not only crude oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, but a third of the world’s fertilizers. If global agriculture runs out of this vital input, we face a global food crisis that will distort harvests and supermarket prices in the coming seasons.
On the threshold of $200 per barrel. If the blockade persists, economic pain will be inevitable. Macquarie Group analysts warn in Bloomberg that if the conflict extends until June, the price of crude oil could reach a whopping 200 dollars. The objective of this extreme price is none other than to force the “demand destruction“: that it be so expensive that people and industries simply stop consuming.
The most pessimistic voices warn of an economic catastrophe. Larry Fink, the CEO of the financial giant BlackRock, warned in an interview with the BBC that if the barrel settles at $150, the world will plunge into a “severe and deep recession.” And the consequences are already visible, as jet fuel in Asia has already exceeded $200. Meanwhile, magazines as Fortune report that Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a recession in the US to 30%.
The Wall Street mirage and useless patches. It is fascinating and terrifying to observe the disconnection between physical reality and financial markets. Wall Street lives “spellbound” by algorithms and verbal intervention (jawboning) by Donald Trump. All it takes is a tweet from the American president announcing vague peace plans—quickly denied by Iran—for the stock markets to rise and the price of a barrel to drop momentarily. Investors blindly trust the phenomenon WAD (“Trump Always Chickens Out”), believing that the president will back down before sinking the economy.
But tweets don’t fill the tanks. To try to mitigate the blow, the International Energy Agency has coordinated the historic release of 400 million barrels of its strategic reserves. It sounds like a lot, but as the experts consulted by Al Jazeerathat amount barely covers 20 days of the oil that has stopped flowing through Hormuz. It’s a band-aid for an arterial bleed. In fact, such is the desperation of the West that the US administration has gone so far as to temporarily lift sanctions on Russiaallowing it to sell its crude oil on the open market in order to try to relieve the pumps.
The big silent winner. While the West is suffocating with inflation and supply problems, just a few thousand kilometers away, Beijing observes the global chaos with an almost insulting coldness. If Europe and the US take years to recover from this blow, the Asian giant will emerge from this crisis with an overwhelming geopolitical advantage. China has not been saved by providence, but by millimetric planning driven by President Xi Jinping’s obsession with maintaining the “energy rice bowl” firmly in your own hands.
The Chinese Great Energy Wall has two almost impenetrable fronts. The first is physical and logistical: they have massive reserves that can cover up to 140 days of their internal demand without importing a single drop by sea, also relying on land pipelines and a “shadow fleet” that avoids the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. The second front is purely structural. China is leading the global transition to retire vulnerable “petrostates” and establish itself as the first large “electrostate” on the planet.
The end of an era. Operation Epic Fury has marked the official return of the “energy weapon”, a vulnerability that the West believed it had overcome after the traumas of the 1970s. The editorial column of Financial Times sums it up crudely– Trade, shipping and investment in the Persian Gulf will never be the same.
Even if a peace deal is signed tomorrow morning, the Iranian regime has discovered (and demonstrated) that its best defense is not a conventional military, but its ability to suffocate the global economy by blocking a simple sea passage. We have entered a new era of fragmentation where geography has defeated diplomacy. And while politicians and markets look for quick shortcuts, the physical reality is set in stone: the old energy normal is dead, and rebuilding trust in the Strait of Hormuz will take years.
Image | Photo by Adam Smigielski on Unsplash
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