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Uncertainty does not feel good to the bags. Nor to the dollar. At least if we look at its evolution against other currencies, such as Yen, the Swiss Franco or The euro. With The commercial war And Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve as a backdrop, the green ticket has started the week standing at some Minimum levels in front of the European currency that had not been seen for years.
The big question is … What does that mean?
A March down. Although uncertainty seems to have been installed in the markets, everything indicates that the dollar will say goodbye to March weakened compared to other currencies. He US dollar indexwhich measures its strength against the main foreign currencies, started the penultimate week of the month falling 1% until they were minimal that had not been seen for more than three years. Meanwhile, the euro was quoted above $ 1.15, its maximum value Since 2021.
The mirror of currencies and gold. The dollar falls in front of the yen And the Swiss Franco and the eurowhich now marks $ 1,1499 after having reached on Monday 1,1573 per first time Since the end of 2021. The scenario feels good too (At least in value) To gold, one of the most consolidated shelter assets: yesterday the precious metal reached $ 3,430 per ounce. Only so far this year has shot above 27%.
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The situation of the euro. With that backdrop there are analysts who They are already highlighting the pronounced ascending curve that records the euro in front of the green ticket so far from 2025. of the minimum change of 1,024 Dollar registered in early January has passed to 1,476. And with a graph clearly up.
After the latest advances of the euro against the dollar and its reinforcement against the US currency, so far from 2025 the European currency has risen 11.3%. The balance is also positive for the pound (6.8%), the Swedish crown (16.5%), the Swiss Franco (12.3%) and the Yen (11.7%), which They overcome the advance of the European currency.
The criticism of the Fed and Powell. When analyzing drifting the dollar Analysts usually point out various factorssuch as the crisis of trust in the green ticket, a loss of attractiveness in a scenario marked by Trump’s protectionist policies or changes in the global economic order and US debt. After the last fall, another added key indicates: the criticism From the White House to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its responsible, Powell, reluctant to lower interest rates.
Trump’s threats affect the image of the body, which can also influence the value of the dollar or the confidence in the stability of US markets. “Trump’s renewed criticism of the FED president this week is a reminder that commercial policy is not the only channel through which the unconventional approach to the administration could undermine the dollar and the US assets markets,” warns in CNN Jonas Goltermann, senior economist of markets at the capital firm Economics.
Why is it important? For several reasons. First because the dollar is more than the currency with which the Americans pay their purchases. Throughout the last 80 years it has been the Vault key of the global financial system, acts from reference and its position against other currencies has influenced the US economy.
He did it then. And it will probably do it now too. There are analysts who They point that Trump seeks to weaken the dollar to favor US exports (one of its declared objectives is to reindustrialize the country) and balance its balance and commercial deficit, something that tariffs would also help. The depreciation strategy of the green ticket would also lead to threats, however, such as problems to face debt in the United States.
Images | Gage Skidmore (Flickr) and Stock Birken (UNPLASH)
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